000
FXUS64 KEWX 271151
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
551 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

.AVIATION...
All sites currently VFR. Areas of fog and low ceilings to the
southeast and east approaching the I-35 corridor. Fog around the
Austin area should begin to affect the terminal with the next hour.
Less confidence with the San Antonio sites but should remain VFR,
minding the fog and stratus to the southeast. Tonight, ahead of an
approaching system, conditions return to IFR with increasing
moisture. Showers start out west at DRT moving east toward the I-35
corridor towards the end of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Another fair weather day today with mostly clear skies as
temperatures climb to mid 70s to low 80s. Southerly flow returns
this afternoon in response to a Pacific shortwave. Tonight rain
chances increase ahead of the approaching system. High resolution
models are indicating some initial storms ahead of the front off of
the Serranias del Burro mountains and Edwards Plateau, entering the
Rio Grande Plains and Hill Country. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
adequate shear, coupled with the strong forcing with the approaching
trough could produce some strong storms producing small hail.
Scattered showers and storms move across the area from northwest to
southeast late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Gusty Northwest
winds behind the front will bring drier and slightly cooler air to
the area, shaving a few degrees off of the highs for tomorrow. With
this drier air and gusty winds, Elevated Fire Weather conditions for
the Rio Grande Plains are forecast.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Cooler and dry conditions are forecast for Wednesday. The next upper
level trough is forecast to dig through the Southwest U.S. and into
northwest Mexico on Wednesday, potentially closing off west of the
Big Bend. The GFS is slightly faster with moving the system through
West Texas Wednesday night and South Central Texas on Thursday, with
the ECMWF slower by roughly 12 hours. This system is expected to
bring a chance of elevated showers to the region sometime Thursday
through Thursday night. Forecast soundings do show elevated
instability, with mid level lapse rates of 7-8 deg C/km, which could
result in isolated thunderstorms. There are still details to be
worked out with the not only the speed of the upper level system but
placement and timing of surface fronts. Low rain chances could
linger into the first part of Friday depending on the eventual speed
of the system. Cool conditions Thursday, given cloud cover and rain
chances, with highs only forecast in the 50s. Lows should stay above
the freezing mark. Next weekend appears dry with relatively warm
afternoon highs for this time of the year. Highs are forecast back
into the mid to upper 70s by Sunday as a south to southwest low level
flow develops.

CLIMATE...
A freeze is not forecast through the remainder of January at San
Antonio, Austin Camp Mabry, or Del Rio. Assuming a freeze does not
occur through the end of the month this will be the first time since
1939 that San Antonio has not had a freeze in the month of January,
since 1950 at Del Rio, and since 2006 at Austin Camp Mabry.

Here are the years where it did not freeze in the month of January
for our climate sites:

San Antonio.........1921 / 1923 / 1932 / 1939
Austin Camp Mabry...1923 / 1986 / 1990 / 1998 / 2006
Austin Bergstrom....1945 / 1952 / 1983
Del Rio.............1939 / 1941 / 1950

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  52  69  40  59 /   0  70  40  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  48  70  40  60 /   0  70  50  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  51  70  40  62 /   0  60  40  -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  49  65  37  57 /   0  70  30  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  50  70  40  66 /   0  50   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  50  67  38  57 /   0  60  40  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             77  53  72  40  66 /   0  60  20   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  50  70  40  61 /   0  60  40  -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  53  71  41  59 /   0  40  60  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  50  70  42  63 /   0  70  40  -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  53  72  43  64 /   0  60  30   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...YB
Long-Term...Runyen