108
FXUS64 KEWX 241940
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
In the short term a few isolated shower and thunderstorms have
already developed from Burnet to Liberty Hill to near Georgetown.
Coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms could increase
through the afternoon as a combination of daytime heating, numerous
outflow boundaries, and an upper trough passing over Texas all
combine to produce enough lift for the scattered activity in the
moist environment.

Synoptically there are a few different features impacting the weather
across Texas. Off the Texas Louisiana Coast a coastal trough is
bringing rain to parts of Louisiana around Lake Charles. Over the
northern and central parts of the state a weak upper trough is
beginning to progress southwestward and is already producing the
aforementioned scattered showers and storms. The trough will move to
the SW through the evening hours, through the overnight and into
tomorrow. This will help aid in the scattered activity for this
evening, and again for parts of tomorrow as the trough axis finally
pushes south of the area Sunday. Forecast soundings support both
locally heavy rainfall and gusty thunderstorm winds. Parts of Kerr
County saw between 2-4 inches of rainfall Friday evening, and sites
like Austin Bergstrom and San Marcos saw winds gust to 40 mph when
the sea breeze gust front moved through. With the trough around
isolated showers and a few storms could linger into the overnight
hours. As the trough axis swings through on Sunday slightly drier air
will work in from the northwest so chances for any scattered activity
will mainly be confined to the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains.
Temperatures will continue to run hot with highs 2-4 degrees above
seasonal normals, topping out right around the triple digit mark.
This will produce afternoon heat index values between 105-108.
Overnight lows will continue to be mild as well anywhere between 1-5
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
For the first half of next week models show the upper level ridge
shifting back eastward over much of Texas while becoming centered
around El Paso. This will cut off rain chances for Monday through
Wednesday and allow highs and lows to continue to run above normal.
The global models all show a shortwave trough riding on the NE
periphery of the ridge approaching Texas late in the day on
Wednesday. At the surface a cold front may try to push south into
North and Central Texas. The GFS is currently farthest north with the
front, hanging it up around DFW. The ECMWF does sag it south towards
Waco, while the 12z Canadian does bring it into our northern
counties. While the final position of the front will have an impact
both on temperatures and rain chances, what the models all do agree
on is that the second half of the week will see the ridge shift
further west to center over Arizona. This will open up areas,
especially east of I-35 to a series of disturbances which could bring
scattered rain chances back to South Central Texas. Temperatures
will also moderate slightly towards the upper 90s rather than triple
digit heat by the end of the week. Models continue to disagree on
frontal placement for the Wed/Thur front so hopefully models will
trend towards consensus there. While summertime fronts are fairly
rare chances of a front making it all the way south into and through
South Central Texas do begin to increase in late August into
September.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  80 101  78 /  20  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  99  78  99  78 /  20  20   0  -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  98  77  99  77 /  30  20  -   -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  97  77  99  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 102  79 104  80 /  30   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  99  79 101  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             77  99  77 102  78 /  30  20  -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  98  77 100  77 /  20  20  -   -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  99  79 101  78 /  30  30  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  99  80  99  79 /  30  20  -   -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           78  99  79  99  79 /  30  30  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Huffman
Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...33