253
FXUS64 KEWX 151922
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
222 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch remains in effect until 9 PM tonight for the Hill
  Country and Southern Edwards Plateau.

- Drier conditions for the rest of the week with warmer
  temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

An unusually moist airmass remains in place this afternoon, and
the weakened upper level disturbance is drifting over Central
Texas. There are isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
western half of the CWA. There is still a possibility of
locally heavy rainfall this afternoon. The Flood Watch remains
in effect until 9 pm for the Southern Edwards Plateau and the
Hill Country. Up to 3 inches of rain are possible in heavier
showers which could lead to quick runoff. Models are showing
drier weather beginning tonight. No rain is forecast for the
rest of the short term period. Drier weather and more sunshine
will lead to warming temperatures Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A mid- to upper-level ridge will build over TX and generally
support an increase in daytime temperatures during the late
week with mostly dry conditions. The upper ridge will continue
to dominate through the long term. The only chance for rain is
Friday over the Coastal Plains along the seabreeze. Otherwise,
there will be a more typical summertime pattern. Temperatures
will warm over the weekend, but only to a little above normal.

One caveat to the long term is the possibility of tropical
development in the northeastern Gulf. At this time, anything
that develops is forecast to move into the central Gulf coast
and not get near TX.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Much better flying conditions compared to 24 hours ago. We continue
to see the remnants of an MCV from earlier this morning move away
from the TAF sites. There is still the isolated chance of -SHRAs and
-TSRAs this afternoon and possibly this evening mainly for KDRT and
perhaps KSAT/KSSF. Have left mention out of this TAF forecast due to
low confidence for now. VFR conditions should prevail until 12Z at
KDRT and until the overnight when MVFR conditions return for I-35 TAF
sites. VFR conditions should then resume by early afternoon at all
TAF sites. A southerly flow around 10 to 15 knots is expected at all
TAF sites throughout the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  96  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  96  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  97  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  93  71  93 /  20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  96  72  95 /  20   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  96  71  94 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  97  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  94  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  74  95 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  99  73  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Blanco-
Burnet-Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real-
Uvalde.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...05
Aviation...CJM