Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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680
FXUS64 KEWX 212336
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
636 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR with northerly winds 5 KTs or less tonight gradually veering to
easterly and southeasterly 5 to 9 Kts on Tuesday can be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Clear skies, diminishing winds, and low dew points will allow for a
cool night, with temperatures forecast to fall into the upper 40s to
low 50s for lows Tuesday morning. Some of the usual drainage areas,
across the Hill Country and isolated spots just east of I-35, could
dip into the low 40s. A large diurnal spread in temperatures will
continue into Tuesday afternoon given the clear skies and low dew
points, rebounding into the upper 70s to mid 80s for highs. A weak
low level return flow is expected to set-up Tuesday night with low
temps a couple of degrees warmer than tonight, but still cool.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
A deepening trough is forecast to carve out of the Rockies and into
the Plains Wednesday and Wednesday night. Like the 00Z guidance, there
remains a split in the 12Z deterministic guidance with the evolution
of the base of the trough. The GFS and NAM12 keep a progressive
trough the the Plains Thursday and Thursday night and into the
Mississippi River Valley on Friday. The ECMWF and Canadian models dig
more energy south into the base of the trough, cutting off an upper
level low Thursday night across West Texas, with the ECMWF slowest in
not ejecting the low northeast out of Texas until Saturday. The
progressive solution would bring a front with chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the area Thursday and Thursday evening, with
clearing and cooler conditions Friday through the weekend. The closed
low solutions show the front moving through the area late Thursday
night, but maintain post frontal precipitation over the area Friday
before being dry slotted Friday night. For now we have indicated high
end chance PoPs both Thursday and Thursday night, as well as a low
PoP on Friday to account for uncertainty. Behind the front, cooler
conditions for Friday with highs currently forecast in the 60s for
most areas. The majority of the GFS ensemble members favor the more
progressive trough solution. However if the slower ECMWF/Canadian
closed low solution verifies rain chances may be higher Thursday
night and Friday as well as high temperatures even cooler for Friday,
potentially remaining in the upper 50s over the Hill Country.

Below  normal temps continue Saturday with a slight warming trend
Sunday. A weaker cold front may approach the area Monday or Monday
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              53  79  54  81  61 /   0   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  46  79  50  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     49  79  52  82  61 /   0   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            49  76  52  79  58 /   0   0   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           53  84  56  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        47  78  51  80  58 /   0   0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             49  84  54  86  64 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        48  80  51  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   50  80  52  82  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       52  80  54  82  64 /   0   0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           53  80  55  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...04
Short-Term/Long-Term...05



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