461
FXUS62 KMHX 051115
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
715 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing
continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days,
but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before
an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather
back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the
beginning of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 0700 Sunday...High pressure remains just offshore this
morning. Ongoing moisture advection continues to increase with
low level flow becoming more SSEerly. Precip continues along a
fairly narrow band from Eern Carteret county Nward along the
Inner Banks through the morning, generally aligned along the
remnant Eern portion of the front. There was some discrepancy
with where the front/precip band would line up exactly with
some of the Wern- most solutions approaching the hwy 17
corridor. Have opted to keep this band closer to the Eern
solutions which is working out fairly well. There will be 3 main
focuses of precip activity today. First, the ongoing activity
associated with the remnants of the front will continue along a
mostly S-N line, slowly nudging Eward through the morning.
Second, this afternoon shower and tstorm activity will increase
from the W this afternoon with the support of a passing
shortwave. Third, despite the cloudiness, there will still be a
weak seabreeze originating over the Crystal Coast this afternoon
which could spark some showers/tstorms along it as it moves
inland. Iso- sct showers remain possible elsewhere. Chc PoPs
cover the area through the morning with a period of LKLY in the
afternoon for the far Wern edge of the FA CAPE will be
sufficient but shear will be lacking once again, so tstorms
remain possible but the severe threat is low. Mostly cloudy to
OVC skies expected through the day due to convection and debris
clouds which will limit MaxTs Sunday; approaching 80 away from
the coast, low 70s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 0345 Sunday...SFC high off the NECONUS gets shunted S by a
front working through New England tonight which will slowly
veer winds through the period to become SSWerly in the early
morning hours MON. Precip potential wanes overnight with mid
and upper level flow becoming more zonal as high shifts Sward.
However, moisture content remains relatively high, near the 90th
percentile of climatology which means that ISO to widely SCT
showers cannot be completely ruled out. Mostly Serly flow and
mostly cloudy skies keeps MinTs warm and muggy, generally mid
60s, upper 60s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As 330 AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue for the first
half of the week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast
and warm moist southerly flow develops. By Wednesday drier
conditions will briefly return but will be accompanied by an
increase in heat and humidity. Then an approaching strong
frontal system will bring unsettled weather back to the area
late Thursday through Friday and possible into Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...Winds will veer to the SW Monday and
Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore. Despite this, a
combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly
flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday.
Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will
target the NC coastal plain. Temperatures will be in the upper
70s to low 80s Monday, and the low to mid 80s Tuesday.

Drier conditions are briefly expected Wednesday as upper level
riding builds back over the Southeast. Increasing low level
thicknesses and continued SW flow will result in hot and humid
conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low
90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast.

Thursday through Saturday...Weak upper level troughing will
again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming
across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive
environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm
development with hot and humid conditions expected again.
However, questions remain about the quickness with which
troughing will develop locally and have will limit precip
chances to around 50% at this time range.

A robust shortwave trough will swing southward into the area on
Friday with a surface cold front also surging south from the
Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this front a moist and unstable airmass
will persist, and the initial impression of this weather
pattern indicates severe weather will be possible, with
potential for a significant event if all ingredients come
together. That being said, much can change at this time scale
but we will continue to monitor this potential.

The front will push through the area sometime Friday night or
early Saturday, with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday.
A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with
highs near to just below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Night/...
As of 0700 Sunday...TAF sites currently showing VFR flight cats
this morning and this will be the predominant set up through
the day outside of showers/tstorms. A band of S-N oriented
showers will continue through the morning while slowly nudging
Eward with periods of sub-VFR conditions likely near it. Some of
the showers could be locally heavy bringing occasional IFR/LIFR
conditions. Generally expect this line to remain E of the TAF
sites. Pred VFR expected Sunday afternoon but scattered showers
and thunderstorms will bring periods of sub- VFR conditions with
greatest chances occuring across the Wern coastal plain and a
lower possibility for EWN/OAJ to see tstorms pop up along the
seabreeze. Have included TEMPO MVFR groups to try to highlight
the most likely times for each TAF site. CIGs lower from W to E
overnight reaching IFR levels for inland sites in the early
morning hours. OAJ has a low end chance of seeing IFR CIGs Mon
morning, but confidence is low considering recent model runs
have trended more Wward with the limit of the IFR CIGs. Have
included a few IFR deck for OAJ in early morning.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Generally VFR conditions are expected
through mid next week, however unsettled conditions every day
except Wednesday could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions
each afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Night/...
As of 0400 Sunday...Winds slowly veer through the short term,
SEerly 10-15kt through the morning, Serly overnight still
10-15kt but outer waters near GStream 15-20kt. Seas will be 2-4
ft. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the period but the severe threat is low.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Decent boating conditions will continue early
this week. Worsening conditions are expected by mid week with
Small Craft conditions likely developing across portions of the
coastal waters.

Winds Monday will generally be SW 10-15 kts, and then increase
to 15-20 kts Tuesday. By Tuesday night, winds will strengthen
slightly more, which will lead to occasional 25 kt gusts across
the coastal waters through Wednesday. SW winds will increase
further Thursday as the gradient increaes ahead of a cold front,
and SW winds will become 20-30 kts.

Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through Tuesday morning, and will
then increase to 3-5 ft. Late Tuesday night some 6 foot seas
will develop across portions of the coastal waters through
Wednesday. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to
strengthening winds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB