609
FXUS61 KOKX 290323
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1123 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north and east through the area tonight,
followed by a weak trough or cold front late tonight. The
boundary returns as a back door cold front on Monday, before a
frontal wave moves out of the Ohio Valley Tuesday, passing to
the the south and east Tuesday night into Wednesday. High
pressure builds in for the second half of the week, followed by
another frontal system over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.

Showers along a warm front are diminished considerably and
should continue to do so through the night. The warm front has
at least pushed east of northeast New Jersey where dew points
have risen to the low to middle 60s with temperatures in the
upper 60s.

The warm front will eventually lift north and east of the area
tonight. Behind the front, temperatures have managed to climb
into the 70s with a mild SW.

Showers will gradual dissipate through the evening, ending
before midnight for most locations.

Temperatures tonight will run above normal by about 10 degrees,
with lows in the 50s and low 60s. Patchy fog is possible overnight
into early Monday morning, and could be dense in a few locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Amplified ridging aloft remains over the Eastern US on Monday,
with a surface high sitting off the Southeast coast. The warm
front that meandered thru will return as a cold front that
attempts to slowly backdoor the region thru the day.

Before the fropa, NW flow that developed behind the surface
trough should aid deeper mixing than over the weekend and help
lead to summerlike levels of warmth for parts of the area.
Still some uncertainty in the temperature forecast as timing of
a back door cold front and lingering cloud cover will be key
factors in just how warm the BL can get. Should the front
advance a bit quicker, temperatures in and around NYC may be a
bit cooler than currently forecast. Blended in some of the
latest guidance that indicates a slightly quicker fropa across
eastern areas, resulting in cooler highs here. West of the
Hudson and away from maritime influence, temperatures should get
into the low 80s by lunchtime, likely topping out in the mid
80s before falling back late day. Potential continues for parts
of urban NE NJ to get into the upper 80s, or near record heat
for late April. See Climate section below for records data.

The back door cold front advances south and west into the
evening hours, and conditions should quickly cool back into the
60s everywhere by mid evening. Low clouds likely develops in
the easterly flow behind the front, and will need to monitor for
fog potential overnight into Tuesday AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Near to slightly below normal temperatures to start the period
followed by a slight warmup for the week`s end.

*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers and
thunderstorms as multiple frontal systems impact the area  during
the period.

Upper ridging along the eastern seaboard weakens while moving out
into the Atlantic on Tuesday. This will allow weakening low pressure
over the Ohio Valley to track east along the front, passing to the
south and east of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The best
forcing looks to reside north across the Mid Hudson Valley and
central New England. Rainfall chances have trended down with this
event due to blocking across the western Atlantic. An isolated
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out Tuesday night. With the low tracking
to the south Wednesday, some light rain and/or drizzle could linger
during the first half of the day, especially eastern areas. Ridging
returns for the second half of the week and the trend here has been
more amplified and slower. Thus, the remainder of the week looks to
be dry. Another upper trough then lifts north out of the
intermountain west on Friday, then up into the Great Lakes over the
weekend. This will send another weakening frontal system into the
area Saturday into Sunday.

As for temperatures, an easterly flow on Tuesday following a
backdoor cold front will return highs closer to normal. A gradual
warmup can then be expected for the rest of the week with
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal along the coast, but to 5
to 10 degrees inland. Chance of rain and cloud cover Saturday and
Sunday knocks temps down a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak trough approaches this evening and crosses through
overnight. A back door cold front moves through Monday
afternoon with high pressure building in Monday night.

Generally VFR through the TAF period. Shower activity has
diminished though VCSH continues through 04-05Z mainly for an
area of showers across northeast New Jersey. Thereafter,
conditions remain dry or mainly dry through the forecast period.
There is a low chance for fog to develop late tonight, mainly
at outlying terminals, but should generally be MVFR.

Light SE to SW winds 5 to around 10 kt continue, shifting to a
general SW to W direction after 03Z. Outlying terminals may go
light and variable tonight. Winds then become W to NW late
tonight with trough passage, then shift to the N, and eventually
E to SE by mid to late Monday afternoon as high pressure builds
in from the northeast. Wind speeds remain around 10 kt or less.
There may be a sea breeze that briefly develops in the
afternoon for KJFK, KBDR, KISP, and KGON. The sea breeze will
be short lived for more eastern terminals as the winds shift to
the E to SE in these locations first.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief reduction in visibility to 5 SM through 04Z possible.

Sea breeze development Monday afternoon possible for KJFK and
less likely for KLGA. Timing is uncertain, especially with high
pressure building in from the east shifting winds to the E to NE
later in the afternoon and early evening hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: MVFR, then VFR. NW/N winds under 10 kt AM,
shifting to E/SE winds in the aft/eve. Slight chance of PM
shra/tsra.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower conds. PM SHRA potential, w/ slight TSRA
potential for NW terminals. E/NE winds.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower conds. E/NE winds.

Thursday thru Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through late week
under a weak pressure gradient regime.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for Monday, April 29:

EWR: 91/1974
BDR: 86/2017
NYC: 89/1974
LGA: 88/2017*
JFK: 85/2017
ISP: 85/2017

*Also occurred in previous years

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
CLIMATE...