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000
FXUS64 KTSA 232002
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
302 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Cold front is presently moving into northeast OK, and is expected
to continue pushing south tonight in response to northern stream
wave moving across the Great Lakes area. Modest instability has
developed in an axis near and south of the boundary, and
convergence along it may result in isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms, with highest prob across northwest AR, where
weaker capping in present. Relatively weak instability and modest
shear should keep severe threat minimal. Boundary is expected to
eventually stall close to the Red R. by Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

BLUF: An active period of spring weather is still shaping up for
the latter half of the week and early next weekend with the
ejection of a pair of strong, negatively tilted shortwaves eject
over the plains. Severe weather potential increases substantially
in the Friday/Saturday periods, potentially lingering into Sunday.
At this time all modes appear to be possible, with a bit more
emphasis on Saturday/early Sunday for eastern OK and western AR.
In addition, potential for heavy or localized excessive rainfall
amounts will increase with multiple rounds of convection through
early Sunday. Forecasts should be watched closely over the next
few days as the overall pattern, along with the calendar, are
both quite favorable for severe weather.

In the meantime, expansion of elevated convection appears likely
from Wed into early Thursday as the front slowly begins to lift
back to the north with richer low level moisture arriving,
especially by Wed night as low level flow really begins to respond
to the first strong system. While convection should remain mostly
evaluated, the environment becomes increasingly sheared and
unstable, and thus potential for large hail becomes greater.

The first system is expected to move over the CO Rockies by
Tuesday evening and lift northeast into the Central Plains by
midday Friday, with strong deep layer wind fields spreading over
the area by early Friday morning. This timing isn`t optimal for
severe weather, but there remains a decent signal for storms to
develop on the dry line Thursday evening and eventually move east
early Friday, with some severe threat maintained overnight into
morning. Some re-intensification of storms also possible by
afternoon, though by that time the more favorable shear to become
focused to our northeast.

All indications are that the pattern will reload rather quickly
in response to the next strong system, which at this point looks
to arrive at a more favorable time of day. Sfc low quickly re-
organizes over southwest KS/southeast CO by late afternoon with
strong wind fields again spreading over the region. The Saturday
evening period appears to be the favored one for parameters to
line up for a more substantial severe threat, which could continue
well into Saturday night as the system lifts northeast and the
Pacific cold front slowly moves east. The details regarding storm
mode and evolution remain uncertain this far out and will be
influenced to some degree by what happens Friday. Some potential
will continue into Sunday as well, at least early in the day.

Monday and Tuesday will be a dry forecast for right now, though
some data suggests the deep moisture never quite get pushed south
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A front will move through the area from late this afternoon into
the evening, leading to a shift from south to southwest winds to
north to northeast behind it. The front should hang up across
southeast Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas overnight,
providing a focus for scattered showers/storms overnight. Given
the expected coverage, will keep a VCSH at all sites except those
in NE OK. IFR/MVFR ceilings will be most likely at MLC/FSM with
moisture increasing along/south of the front and will forecast
prevailing restricted ceilings there for the latter part of the
period. Better shower and thunderstorm chances will arrive toward
the last few hours of the period and after, affecting mainly the E
OK sites, with enough potential at FSM to also mention a PROB30
there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  73  58  75 /  10  60  80  90
FSM   60  75  59  72 /  30  60  70  80
MLC   59  72  63  79 /  20  60  70  60
BVO   48  73  53  72 /   0  50  80  90
FYV   51  75  54  68 /  50  30  80  80
BYV   51  73  54  64 /  50  20  70  80
MKO   56  72  58  73 /  20  60  80  80
MIO   49  73  55  67 /  10  20  80  90
F10   57  71  60  75 /  20  60  80  70
HHW   61  75  63  77 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22