Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231937
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
237 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will lift back north as a warm front later
tonight into Sunday morning. A cold front will cross the region
Sunday afternoon. Dry and cool weather expected Monday through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EST Saturday...

A chilly/rainy day across the FA and the RA will remain
widespread through this evening. A frontal boundary remains
(well) S of the FA this afternoon...but it is expected to begin
to pull N by late tonight. Also...very weak sfc lo pres will be
tracking NE along the NC coastal plain to near the VA Capes
later this evening before dissipating late tonight.
Steady/widespread RA may taper off from W-E overnight...though
will likely behind low clouds and at least spotty lgt
RA/occasional lgt DZ. Lows tonight will not be far current
conditions...ranging from the u30s-m40s...though likely rising
by late tonight

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM EST Saturday...

The warm front will push N of the FA Sun morning...but still
expecting significant/widespread coverage of clouds and an area
of RA to be hanging around. Lo pres tracking towards SE Canada
will push its associated cold front across the mountains
early...then through the local area early-mid afternoon. SSW
winds a bit gusty...esp near the coast Sun morning as
temperatures/dew points continue to rise. Clearing and lowering
PoPs Sun afternoon as SW winds become gusty to 30-40 mph. Going
a bit lower than guidance for high temperatures (in case clearing
begins a tad later)...though readings should still reach well
through the 60s into the m70s.

Rainfall totals into Sun afternoon will range from 1-1.5"...except
0.5-1" near/S of the VA-NC border. River flood warnings continue
for the James, Nottoway, and Meherrin rivers due to this extended
period of precip. See the Hydro section below for further
details.

Drying out...cooling down and remaining breezy (highest speeds
near the coast) Sun night w/ lows from the l30s far NW to the l40s
SE. Sunny and cool Mon w/ breezy W winds...gusty to 30-40 mph
still on the ern shore. Highs in the l-m50s at the coast to the
u50s-around 60F elsewhere. Clear w/ calming winds Mon night. Lows
in the u20s-l30s inland...m-u30s along the coast in SE VA-NE NC.
Partly sunny N/mostly sunny S Tue w/ highs from the u40s-l50s
near the coast to the u50s-l60s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Saturday...

Zonal flow aloft W-E across the CONUS will dominate the
extended forecast period. Blend of the guidance shows a few
potential pcpn events...late Wed into Thu...late Thu night into
Fri...then again next Sat. 00Z/23 ECMWF was drier than most other
models but given the strong wly flow aloft through the period...can`t
count on any extended period of dry wx during the next week. There
will also be a gradual pressing of colder air ESE from the plains
states/Canada...resulting in temperatures average near to slightly
blo normal.

Lows tue night from the u20s N to the m-u30s SE. Highs Wed from
the m-u40s near the coast to the m-u50s inland. Lows Wed night
in the l-m30s N to the u30s-around 40F SE. Highs Thu from 45-50F
near the coast to the m-u50s inland. Lows Thu night from the
l-m30s N and NW (where there might be a RA/SN mix late) to the
l40s SE. Highs Fri from the l-m40s N to around 50F in NE NC.
Lows Fri night in the l30s NW to the l40s SE. Highs Sat from the
u40s to m50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EST Saturday...

Widespread RA and IFR-MVFR CIGs over the FA into Sun w/ winds
ENE avg 5-15 kt. Weak sfc lo pres will track near the SE VA-NE
NC coast tonight as a warm front is slow to pull back N across
the region. Winds are expected to gradually become SSW early
Sun and a bit gusty at times. A cold front will push across the
FA early-mid Sun afternoon w/ possible ISOLD-SCT lingering
SHRAS then clearing/return to VFR conditions (into Sun night).
SW winds Sun afternoon will become gusty to 25-35 kt. VFR
conditions expected Mon into Wed...though still breezy/windy
Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EST Saturday...

Strong sfc high pressure centered north of the area will move east
off the northern mid-Atlantic/southern New England coast late this
aftn, before pushing well offshore tonight/early Sunday.
Meanwhile, a sfc trough of low pressure extends east across the
southern states and ENE off the SE coast. The models generally keep
sub-SCA conditions in place late this aftn/eve, except south of the
VA/NC border where NE winds will continue to gust to 25 kt and seas
will maintain 4-5 ft through early eve. SCA currently in effect to
address this.  As the boundary to the south continues to lift N
later tonight, winds will come down a bit, while shifting to the SSE
then SSW overnight/early Sunday morning. Once the winds lessen this
evening and overnight, expect the potential for some fog to develop
over the coastal waters south of Parramore, the lower Bay, lower
James River and Currituck Sound. Have issued a marine dense fog
advisory from 00Z-09z Sun to account for this. There is some
indication that marine fog may spread north overnight and this is
something we will continue to monitor for further expansion of the
advisory.

With the approach of a cold front from the west on Sunday and a
significant tightening of the pressure gradient, expect SCA
conditions to develop over all zones by late morning or aftn (SW
winds sustained to 20-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt). SCAs now in
effect for this. The front is expected to move across the region
late Sun aftn into Sun evening, with a brief surge of potentially
higher winds possible in the immediate wake of the front with
pressure rises of 7-9 mb/6hr for the period ending Sun evening. A
Gale Watch has been upgraded to a warning for the coastal waters N
of Parramore Island for Sun eve through Mon where a prolonged period
of W to NW winds gusting to ~40 kt is expected. For the remainder of
the area, opted to stay with an SCA given only the brief period of
potentially higher winds with the front late Sat aftn/evening. The
offshore flow will keep seas from building much above 5-6 ft. For
Mon, a gradual diminishing of the winds/seas is expected, with the
strongest winds over the northern coastal waters. By Monday night,
high pressure is building into the area and with the cold advection
weakening, should see conditions relaxing below SCA levels. This
area of high pressure will slowly track across the region through
the mid week time period with generally benign conditions expected
through midweek.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 900 PM EST Friday...

Flood warnings cont portions of the James, Nottoway and Meherrin
rivers thru the weekend. See FLSAKQ for details.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches could see some locations
climb at least into action stage if not reaching minor flood at
locations like Farmville. The amount of rain will be key as the
soil across the region remains saturated lead to much of the
rain running off not soaking in.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 330 AM EST Saturday...

Very warm temperatures are expected on Sunday but record highs
are currently not forecast. For reference they are listed below:

* Site: Record High for Sun 2/24

* RIC:  82 (1985)
* ORF:  82 (2012)
* SBY:  77 (2012)
* ECG:  79 (1985)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ633-635>638-654-656.
     Dense Fog Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ632>634-638-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-
     652.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-
     652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/RHR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...JDM/LKB
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ



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