Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 210242
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
942 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves off the Carolina coast tonight. High
pressure returns for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 PM EST Thursday...

Late this evening, the latest radar showed area of heaviest
pcpn was now moving into extrm Scntrl/SE VA and NE NC, with Obs
showing SN was occurring at all locations except at the SE VA
and NE NC coastal areas where a mix of RA/SN was occurring.
Temps were in the lower to mid 30s.

Thus far, Total snow accumulations ranged from near .5 inch from
a FVX-RIC-SBY line, to 2-4 inches over scntrl/interior SE VA
into interior NE NC. Pcpn will gradually end from NW to SE
overnight into early Fri morning, along with partial clearing,
as intensifying low pressure will push farther out to sea off
the SE coast. Becoming breezy/windy, with NNE winds to gust to
30-40 mph at the immediate coast. Temps will fall into the 20s
to near 30. Although SN is ending/will end overnight into early
Fri morning, will maintain at least a winter wx advisory until
7 AM Fri morning, due to slick/slippery roadways.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 PM EST Thursday...

Any pcpn over far SE VA-coastal NE NC quickly ends early Fri
morning. Otw...hi pres and clearing out for Fri...though cold
w/ highs in the u30s-l40s (l-m30s over areas that have SN cover).
N winds remaining breezy at the coast. After a chilly night Fri
night w/ the center of sfc hi pres arriving late...Sat will be
dry w/ more seasonable conditions. Lows Fri night from the
l-m20s inland to the u20s-around 30F at the coast. Highs Sat in
the u40s-l50s.

Sfc hi pres remains near or just SE of the local area Sat night
through Sun as the next storm system begins to take shape INVOF
central Plains. Winds turn SSW leading to continued moderation
w/ little clouds. SKC Sat night w/ near calm conditions. Lows in
the m-u20s inland to the l30s right along the immediate coast
in ern/SE VA and coastal NE NC. Mostly sunny and mild Sun w/
highs mainly 55-60F...though cooler along the bay/ocean.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...

Low pressure tracks NE through the Ohio Valley late Monday into
Tuesday. The trailing cold front will result in scattered rain
showers with PoPs increasing to 60-75% by Tuesday. This system will
be followed by stronger low developing Wednesday/Thursday along a
deep trough moving into the region. This system is developing in a
much stronger kinematic environment but current model consensus is
that the low will track inland, and therefore it is expected bring
only rain into the CWA Wednesday into early Thursday. High pressure
moves in Thursday.

Low temps Sun night will range from the low 30s in the piedmont to
the upper 30s along the coast. Low temps Mon and Tues nights will
range from the low 40s in the NW to the upper 40s to low 50s in the
SE. Low temps Wed night will range from the mid 30s in the NW to the
low 40s in the SE. Low temps on Thurs night will be the coldest of
the long term period with mid-20s in the NW and low 30s in the SE.
High temps Mon will range from the mid-50s in the NW to around 60F
in the SE. High temps Tues and Wed will range from the upper 50s in
the NW to the mid-60s in the SE. High temps on Thurs will range from
the upper 40s in the NW to the mid-50s in the SE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EST THURSDAY...

Latest radar showed main area of pcpn, mostly just snow
everywhere except mixed rain/snow at coastal SE VA/NE NC, was
shifting into mainly SE/scntrl VA and NE NC. Except for SBY,
where VFR conditions currently exist and will continue this
evening into Fri evening, MVFR or IFR conditions prevailed at
the other TAF sites. RIC will improve to VFR conditions in the
next two hours with any light snow or flurries ending. While
PHF/ORF/ECG will continue with mainly IFR conditions until at
least 06Z-08Z, with snow gradually tapering off and ending from
NW to SE at these sites through 11Z Fri morning. VFR conditions
prevail everywhere after 12Z Fri.

Winds are currently NE/N at 5-15 kt, but are expected to become
N and increase at all the TAF sites later this evening into
midday Fri, as the storm system moves out to sea and high
pressure builds in from the WNW. Expect winds of 10-15 kt by
early Friday at RIC/SBY, 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt at PHF,
and 15-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt at ORF/ECG.

OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions prevail Fri evening through Sun, as high pressure
builds over the area then slides offshore. Rain showers and
possible flight restrictions will be possible Mon aftn into Tue
aftn, as a cold front approaches and moves through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EST Thursday...

Winds are N/NE 5-15 kts this afternoon as a weak high sits over the
northeast and low pressure is off the SE coast. Waves in the bay 1-2
ft and seas 3-5 ft. Wind speeds will increase this evening as the
low moves closer to the region off the Carolina coast and a strong
1044 mb high builds in over the center of the country, resulting in
a tightening of the pressure gradient across area waters. Winds
overnight and Friday morning will be 20-30 kts with gusts up to 40
kts for Currituck Sound and the southern coastal waters south of
Cape Charles. Waves/Seas will also start building tonight and by
Friday morning and early afternoon expect 2-4 ft waves in the bay
with around 5 ft at the mouth of the bay, and seas 5-9 ft with the
highest seas over the southern coastal waters.

Only minor timing adjustments to the headlines. Moved the start time
for the Gale warning for Currituck sound up to 00Z tonight, and
extended the SCA for the lower bay and coastal waters off the lower
VA eastern shore out a few hours. Currently, the Gale Warnings for
Currituck Sound and southern coastal waters go from 00Z tonight
until 21Z Friday, with SCA`s likely needed for at least the southern
coastal waters beyond 21Z for lingering seas. The SCA for the lower
bay goes from 00Z tonight until 00Z Saturday, and 03Z to 21Z for the
upper bay. The SCA for the rivers goes from 05Z to 18Z Saturday, and
03Z to 21Z Saturday for the lower James. Finally, the SCA for the
northern coastal waters starts at 03Z and goes until 03Z Saturday
for zones ANZ650/652 and 06Z Saturday for zone ANZ654.

Winds will begin to subside late Friday morning as the low moves
away from the area and high pressure shifts over to the OH valley.
By late Friday evening the bay should fall below SCA criteria.
Conditions improve for the weekend as high pressure remains in
control, however SCA`s for lingering high seas will likely remain
for the coastal waters through Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NCZ102.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NCZ102.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for NCZ102.
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for VAZ087>090-092-
     093-095>098-523>525.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for VAZ065>068-
     078>086-099-100-512>516-518-520.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ654.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ633-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...RMM/TMG
MARINE...AJB/JDM



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