Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
891
FXUS61 KALY 221501
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1101 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area today, bringing isolated to
scattered showers. A wave of low pressure tracking along the
front will bring showers to areas mainly south of Albany
tonight. Drier, cooler and less humid conditions are expected
for Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds into the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updated at 1045 am. Surface cold front appears to be sliding
southeast across the area late this morning and is currently
located between ALB and POU. Dew points have fallen into the 50s
behind the front over much of central NY and this dryer air will
be filtering east this afternoon. A few showers or even an
isolated thunderstorms could still occur over the mid-Hudson
Valley eastward to northwest Connecticut this afternoon, but
much of the area will remain dry. Afternoon temperatures will
range from the 80s in the Hudson Valley, to the 70s at higher
elevations. Previous discussion is below.

As of 630 AM EDT, areas of fog, some locally dense, continue
across much of the Hudson River Valley north of Poughkeepsie, as
well as across the Mohawk Valley, CT River Valley in SE VT, and
within the Housatonic Valley in the Berkshires. The fog should
lift between 7 and 9 AM. A Special Weather Statement has been
issued to address the locally dense morning fog.

Meanwhile, the cold front currently extends across from the SW
Adirondacks into central NY. Most of the showers thus far
associated with the front remain north of the local forecast
area, although an isolated shower could still occur across
extreme northern Herkimer/Hamilton Counties over the next 1-2
hours.

The cold front should continue slowly tracking south and east
across western and northern areas this morning, and areas south
and east of Albany this afternoon. Instability will be limited,
with HREF forecast mean MU CAPES generally under 500 J/kg,
except possibly reaching around 750 J/kg across portions of the
mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County during this afternoon.
Expect isolated to scattered showers along or just ahead of the
front for most areas today, with some thunderstorms possible
across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT during this afternoon.
SPC has shifted most of the previous Marginal Risk area for
severe thunderstorms south and east of the region, although it
does clip southern Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, where an
isolated stronger thunderstorm can not be ruled out given mid
level wind fields of 35-40 KT.

Max temps should reach the lower/mid 80s in many valley areas
today, with some upper 80s possible across the mid Hudson Valley
and lower elevations in NW CT where downsloping NW winds may
enhance warming potential.

Dewpoints should fall into the 50s for many areas by late
afternoon, except remaining in the 60s for the Capital Region
and points south and east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, the front should track southeast of the region early
tonight, however a wave of low pressure is expected to ripple
along the front in response to a sharpening shortwave tracking
southeast from the western Great Lakes, along with the right
entrance region of an upper level jet translating across Ontario
and western Quebec. Backing mid/upper level flow should allow
clouds and showers to expand northeast into the SE Catskills,
mid Hudson Valley/southern Taconics, NW CT and central/southern
Berkshires this evening and overnight. It is possible that the
northern edge of these showers expands as far north and west as
the I-90/I-88 corridors. Some pockets of moderate rain could
occur in southern areas. Meanwhile, northern areas should remain
clear to partly cloudy as high pressure builds in. Lows mainly
in the 50s to lower 60s, except for some 40s across the
southwest Adirondacks.

Friday-Friday night, some lingering clouds and perhaps spotty
showers across southeast areas early in the morning, followed by
partly to mostly sunny skies by afternoon. There is a low
probability that some light showers/sprinkles could develop in
the afternoon as the main upper level trough/cold pool passes
through, but will keep out mention at this time given forecast
moisture profiles suggesting a rather deep layer of dry mid
level air advecting into the region. It will be cooler and much
less humid, with highs mostly in the 70s for valley areas, and
60s higher terrain areas. Rather cool for Friday night with
clear to partly cloudy skies, with lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s, except some lower 40s across portions of the SW Adirondacks
and southern VT.

Saturday-Saturday night, high pressure continues to build in
from the north, however some upper level energy may gradually
pass southward across the region later Saturday into Saturday
night. This may allow for some clouds to develop, and could even
see a couple of showers across mainly higher terrain areas
Saturday afternoon. Highs Saturday mainly in the 70s for
valleys, 60s higher elevations. Lows Saturday night in the 40s
and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday, GFS and increasing amount of GEFS members coming in line
with the ECMWF in lingering a cutoff low over the region. PWAT will
be fairly low at less than an inch, but cannot rule out a few
diurnal showers with a 500 mb cold pocket overhead. Went with some
low chance PoPs mainly south of I-90.

Though upper lows can be stubborn, consensus is for the low to shift
northeastward and become replaced by a narrow ridge for Monday-
Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions. Temperatures Sunday-Tuesday
will likely be a bit on the cool side of normal with easterly flow
draining from high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes.

Indications are for the ridge to shift eastward by Tuesday
night/Wednesday as a broad trough approaches from the western Great
Lakes. Return flow in advance of this feature should boost temps
back up near normal values, but showers may spread into the region
as the trough impinges.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1035Z, fog and low stratus remain over all of the
terminals except for KPOU. Seeing some clearing in the fog
upstream over the Mohawk Valley where winds have gone westerly.
Best estimate at this time for fog/low clouds to dissipate is
between 12-14Z. Mainly VFR conditions expected for the
remainder of the period. Some moisture will linger down by KPOU
which should see a few late afternoon/evening showers or perhaps
a rogue thunderstorm. A couple showers cannot be ruled out at
KPSF during the evening through the end of the TAF period. Kept
prevailing VFR in the TAFs due to expected low coverage of
showers.

Calm to light southerly winds will become westerly during the
day today at 5 to 10 kt with a couple of gusts near 20 kt at
times primarily at KALB.

Outlook...

Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will cross the area today, bringing isolated to
scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. A wave of low pressure
tracking along the front will bring showers to areas mainly
south of Albany tonight. Drier, cooler and less humid conditions
are expected for Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds
into the region.

RH values will decrease to minimum values of around 45 to 55
percent this afternoon, and increase to 85 to 100 percent
tonight with areas of dew formation likely. RH should drop to
around 45-55 percent Friday afternoon.

South to southwest winds at around 5 mph will become west to
northwest and increase to 5 to 15 mph this afternoon, then
decrease to around 5 mph tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
today into tonight, mainly for areas south of Albany. Most of
this activity will be light, but brief downpours will be
possible in any thunderstorms.

Dry conditions are expected Friday into Saturday.

Isolated showers will be possible Sunday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...MSE/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.