Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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182
FXUS61 KALY 152037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
437 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex storm system will bring a widespread soaking rainfall
into the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday along with
brisk and cool conditions. Fair and dry weather will return
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A clear to mostly clear sky is expected tonight as the nearest
cloud cover is in the central Great Lakes and in the SE US. Some
thin, high clouds could just begin to spread into our region by
daybreak. Winds will trend to calm through this evening, perhaps
even into the early morning hours but increasing south to
southwest boundary layer flow will likely allow for a light
south to southeast wind in some areas by daybreak.

The clear sky and light winds should allow temperatures to drop
into the 30s to near 40 in many areas. There cold be a few spots
of frost in rural areas around the Capital Region south through
the Hudson Valley but quite isolated, where any localized
temperatures could drop to the mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Sun in the morning will give way to clouds in the afternoon and
rain spreading east and north late in the afternoon. Winds will
be southeast and increase and become gusty through the
afternoon. Highs Wednesday in the 60s but 50s in higher terrain.

Strong northern stream upper energy diving out of Canada and the
Great Lakes will phase with southern stream energy and moisture
currently in the northern Gulf Coast States and SE US Wednesday
night and Thursday. Very strong southeast boundary layer winds,
strong warm and moisture advection and isentropic lift will
result in periods of heavy rain Wednesday night, with enhanced
rainfall in the eastern Catskills, Taconics, NW CT, Berkshires
and southern Green Mountains. The strong southeast winds are
expected to be strong, up to 40 mph but not quite to advisory
levels. Some rainfall rates could exceed a half inch per hour
and some localized urban and poor drainage flooding could occur,
especially if leaves block drainage.

Low level wind flow abruptly shifts to north and northwest
before daybreak Thursday as the upper deformation precipitation
organizes in western New England and portions of NY north of
I-90 through Thursday morning. Gusty northwest winds are
expected Thursday and some wind advisories may be needed if
confidence increases for widespread damaging winds. Rain should
gradually decrease in coverage south of I-90 and the Berkshires
through Thursday but steadier precipitation should continue from
the southern Adirondacks through Lake George region to the
southern Green Mountains. The clouds and cold advection should
keep high temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s, maybe mid 50s
mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

Winds, clouds and precipitation continue Thursday night with
coverage and intensity decreasing through the night. There
could be a mix with snow at the highest peaks of the eastern
Catskills, southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains. By
early Friday morning, just chances in the southern Adirondacks
to southern Green Mountains and just clouds elsewhere.

Improving sky conditions but still a bit breezy Friday as the
upper closed low slowly and steadily exits. Highs Friday in the
50s but mid 40s to near 50 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet and seasonable weather is expected for the upcoming weekend
before we warm 5-10 degrees above normal for the new work week.
The next potential widespread rain event looks to arrive during
the middle of next week.

We start the long term off on Saturday with surface high
pressure and upper level ridging building into the Northeast
with the previously discussed nor`easter exiting into the
Canadian Maritimes. As high pressure takes control, the pressure
gradient should relax over eastern NY and western New England
allowing winds to finally weekend Friday night. Skies should
clear overnight as well leading to radiational cooling.
Temperatures should cool towards their respective dew points
which the latest guidance shows ranging from the low to mid-30s.
The best chance for freezing temperatures looks to be in the
Adirondacks, Greens and Catskills mainly above 1500ft. All other
areas should remain a few degrees above 32F.

After a chilly start to our Saturday, temperatures should warm back
towards seasonable levels between the mid-50s in the higher
terrain to low 60s in the Valley. Add in the sunny skies thanks
to the upper level ridge overhead and Saturday should be a
welcomed relief of pleasant autumn weather after we endured
cloudy/cool/breezy conditions to end the work week. Our
shortwave ridge slides into New England Saturday night with a
weak warm front moving through the Northeast overnight.

A southwest flow regime returns on Sunday as eastern NY/western New
England becomes positioned on the western fringe of the exiting
ridge and downstream of a trough passing well to our north
through Quebec. Temperatures should respond as expected with
highs climbing a few degrees warmer than Saturday into the low
to mid 60s. Sun should also gradually fade behind some more
clouds as well due to a weak cold front moving through late in
the day. The front looks fairly moisture starved so decided to
continue with the dry forecast laid out by the previous update.

As we head into the new week, the differences between the NCEP
model suite, the ECMWF and CMC-NH become more apparent and
relate to the next potential widespread rain event. Generally,
the GFS and CMC-NH show a similar/wetter solution while the
ECMWF is the outlier with a bit drier solution so continued to
follow the previous update in siding a bit more with the GFS
/CMC-NH. However, we have seen numerous times before the ECMWF
outlier can be the right solution so we will not completely
discount it.

The general synoptic pattern shows our moisture starved cold
front from Sunday lifting back northeastward as a warm front on
Monday with a mature/vertically stacked cut-off low in the Upper
Plains escaping to our north/west. As the cold front from this
cut-off low drags through the Southeast U.S, south-southeast
850mb winds intensify up to 40-50kts with the 850mb V-component
ranging 2-4 standard deviations above normal as per the GEFS
Monday night. This should strengthen isentropic lift over the
Northeast with additional support from 500mb heights falls as
the aforementioned cut-off low heads into Canada. The cut-off
low actually looks to go negatively titled on Tuesday which
guidance hints at the potential for a secondary coastal low
development as the warm front pushes through the Northeast.
Still too early to give specifics on timing and rainfall amounts
but given that the general synoptic set-up for mid-week
supports very strong moisture advection out of the Gulf of
Mexico leading to a widespread overrunning precipitation event,
we continued to place widespread high end chance POPs for the
entire region Monday night through Tuesday. Temperatures under this
flow regime should also stay mild averaging above normal.However,
the differences in guidance mean this is not a high probability
event and warrant continually monitoring/forecast changes.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will be over the region today, resulting in clear skies
and light winds. VFR conditions should prevail in most places through
Wednesday morning, although some spotty fog is possible at GFL
and PSF late tonight. Clouds will thicken Wednesday afternoon
with rain developing late as a major storm system organizes
along the east coast.

Winds today will be south-southwest around 4-6 kt this
afternoon, then light and variable tonight, becoming southeast
and increasing to 5 to 15 kts on Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite SHRA...RA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32.0 Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A complex storm system will bring a widespread soaking rainfall
into the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday along with
brisk and cool conditions. Fair and dry weather will return
Friday into the weekend.

Rainy cool conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Strong southeast winds gusting over 30 mph expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Strong gusty northwest winds winds
Thursday, gusting over 40 mph at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A widespread soaking rainfall is expected Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday. Some increased flows on the main stem rivers are
likely. Some points are expected to reach action stage but not
reach flood stage

Total rainfall still varies from the guidance, but two to three
inches are possible in some locations with some isolated
locally higher amounts. Within bank rises are possible on the
main stem rivers. Some ponding of water on roadways and poor
drainage flooding of low lying areas is possible due to the
moderate to potentially heavy rainfall in a 12 to 24 hour time
frame. The latest MMEFs guidance indicates no problems in the
ALY HSA.

A period of dry weather will return Friday into the weekend
which should allow flows to slow and lower.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...MSE
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



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