Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 240836
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
436 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Strengthening low pressure tracking into the Canadian
Maritimes will bring breezy and cooler conditions for today. Weak
high pressure will bring fair and seasonably mild conditions for
Thursday, before another storm system brings rain and cooler
temperatures for Friday, with chilly and blustery conditions
expected for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 430 AM EDT, the cold front was tracking southeastward
across the Berkshires, southern Taconics and southeast
Catskills. It will pass through the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT
between 430 and 6 AM. Other than perhaps a passing shower,
little rainfall is accompanying the front.

In the wake of the front, gusty west/northwest winds have
developed with speeds of 10-20 mph, and occasional gusts of
25-35 mph, strongest across the SW Adirondacks and western
Mohawk Valley. Temps have dropped into the upper 30s across the
SW Adirondacks, with mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere behind the
front. Ahead of the boundary, temps remain in the 50s across
much of the Berkshires, Taconics, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

Some breaks in the clouds will be possible early this morning in
valley areas, with more widespread breaks expected across the
mid Hudson Valley and SE VT. Skies will become mostly cloudy
later this morning through the afternoon for most areas along
and north of I-90, as cyclonic flow and some Lake moisture along
with cold advection continue. Breaks in the clouds will be more
prevalent to the south and east.

Temperature forecast is very tricky for today given the strong
cold advection that will be underway, which will be partially
offset by deeper mixing and the effects of late April sun
strength. The latest NAM and RAP13 2-meter temps suggest temps
fall into the 40s for most areas near and north of I-90 this
morning with little recovery through the day, while the GFS/MAV
MOS and ECMOS suggests temps recover this afternoon into the
mid/upper 50s for most valley areas, with 30s/40s confined to
higher terrain northern areas.

At this time, have generally followed closer to the EC MOS, with
high temperatures recovering into the mid 50s for valley areas
from Albany north and west, except upper 40s/lower 50s across
the Mohawk Valley. Across portions of the mid Hudson Valley,
where more sunshine is expected in addition to a greater
downsloping NW wind component, max temps should reach 60-65 this
afternoon, while higher terrain northern areas only reach the
mid/upper 40s, with the highest peaks likely barely reaching 40.

Some passing rain showers will be possible across portions of
the extreme western Mohawk Valley, SW Adirondacks, and higher
terrain of southern VT through the day, and for elevations above
1800 feet, some snow may be mixed in at times which could
produce minor accumulations.

Winds will be strong and gusty from the west to northwest, with
gusts of 25-35 mph likely, if not slightly higher (especially
within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight-Thursday, high pressure will quickly translate northeast
and build over the region later tonight into Thursday. Clouds
should erode later this evening, with clearing skies expected
late tonight. As winds diminish, temps may fall off into the 30s
for many areas, with even some 20s possible across portions of
the SW Adirondacks. On Thursday, a weak upper level disturbance
will pass south of the region, which may bring some clouds to
southern areas in the morning. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies for
the afternoon, with temps rebounding back into the 60s for lower
elevations, and 50s across higher terrain.

Thursday night, the next system will be approaching from the
southwest, bringing clouds later in the evening and overnight,
with rain overspreading the region from southwest to northeast
after midnight. Lows mainly in the 40s.

Friday-Friday night, models have come into better agreement
regarding a storm system approaching from the southwest Friday
and passing across the region late Friday into Friday night.
Latest (00Z/24) GEFS suggest greater signals for potentially
heavy rain across the region, as PWAT`s surge to +1-3 SD, and
H850 moisture flux increases to +2-4 SD. GEFS probabilities for
>1 inch QPF over 24 hours (Fri-Fri nt) has increased
significantly to 90-100 percent for most of the region, with
even some slight chances (10-20%) for 2"+ over 36 hours ending
12Z/Sat. There is some uncertainty regarding the exact placement
of heaviest QPF, with some models suggesting the southern
Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley and southern VT, while others
suggest heaviest QPF may track slightly farther south and east
across western New England. Placement will be critical, as much
of the southern Adirondack river basins remain quite saturated
from recent heavy rain and snowmelt, and any additional heavy
rain could lead to renewed flood threats in this region. Will
include mention of possible renewed flood threat in HWOALY. Rain
may actually end as snow across higher elevations of the
Adirondacks late Friday night as colder air moves into the
region, along with strong dynamical cooling. Highs Friday mainly
in the 40s and 50s, with lows Friday night in the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Winds will increase late Friday night from the
west/northwest as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active pattern continues in the long term thanks to energetic/wavy
jet across the northern tier of the CONUS. Fairly good agreement
among medium range deterministic models and ensembles through
Saturday night, but predictability falls with time Sunday onward
due to models having difficulty with timing and amplitude of waves
transiting through the fast flow.

Saturday, strong low pressure will move northward from Maritime
Canada into Quebec, with strong subsidence over the local area
leading to a dry day aside from some possible morning upslope
showers over the high terrain. A strong pressure gradient around the
departing low will lead to a breezy day. Went closer to the cooler
ECMWF MOS for high temps with strong cold advection offsetting
insolation. Highs expected to be several degrees below normal.
Seasonably cool for Saturday night as high pressure briefly builds
in, but clouds increase ahead of the next system.

Another shortwave trough is forecast to transit the area on Sunday.
Models have struggled with the amplitude of this wave, with the GFS
being more amplified over the last several runs compared with the
ECMWF. Still a lot of spread exists in the GEFS. We will leave PoPs
in the chance category here with temps below normal once again.
Depending on the track and strength of the surface low, areas
south of I-90 could end up seeing a milder day than currently
forecast. If it ends up precipitating much of the day, areas
north of I-90 could be cooler than forecast.

Will go with a dry period Sunday night into Monday with subsidence
in the wake of Sunday`s wave. Highs remain several degrees below
normal. Tight baroclinic zone and energetic jet remain over the
area, so subtle impulses could result in additional periods of
showers Monday night into Tuesday, but low confidence at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Powerful midlevel disturbance is punching in and associated
midlevel drying has resulted in rain showers moving east of the
terminals. Just a passing light shower is possible mainly for
KPOU/KPSF for the next 1-2 hours. Otherwise, upstream stratus
deck is expected to spread in presently as winds shift westerly.
Ceilings are expected to be right around 3kft, except more
solidly MVFR at KPSF and more solidly VFR at KPOU. The wind
shift and arrival of lower stratus should occur right around 06Z
at KGFL, 0630Z at KALB, 08Z at KPSF, and 09Z at KPOU. Continued
cold advection aloft will result in these stratus persisting
much of the day, with perhaps a slight rise in ceilings as the
strong sun angle deepens mixing slightly despite the cloud
cover. Ceilings will tend to scatter after 00Z Thu.

South-southwesterly winds at 10 kt or less will become west-
southwesterly wind the wind shift, with some quick gusts to
around 20-25 kt possible. Winds will remain elevated with gusts
to around 25 kt much of the day, with directions veering to
west-northwesterly by late morning. Winds will diminish to
around 10 kt around sunset. Low level wind shear was included at
KPOU through 09Z as surface winds have become light and
variable, which should persist for the next 3 hours or so.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Pds RA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Likely SHRA...RA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind gusts up to 40 mph today...

Strengthening low pressure tracking into the Canadian
Maritimes will bring breezy and cooler conditions for today. Weak
high pressure will bring fair and seasonably mild conditions for
Thursday, before another storm system brings rain and cooler
temperatures for Friday, with chilly and blustery conditions
expected for Saturday.

RH will fall to 40-60 percent this afternoon, lowest across
portions of the mid Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County
CT. RH will then recover to 90-100 percent tonight, with some
dew formation likely. RH will then drop to 25-35 percent
Thursday afternoon.

Winds will be west to northwest at 15-25 mph today with gusts of
30-40 mph. West to northwest winds 10-20 mph this evening will
become light/variable after midnight. Light/variable winds
Thursday morning will become south to southwest at 5-10 mph in
the afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Warning remains in effect on the Schroon River at
Riverbank. The Schroon River at Riverbank will continue to
gradually fall and is forecast to go below 8 feet, moderate
flood stage, after 2 am Thursday. In addition, a Flood Warning
also remains in effect for the Hudson River at Fort Edward for
minor flooding. River level at Fort Edward is forecast to drop
below minor flood stage this morning. Please visit our Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web page for specific area
rivers and lakes observations and forecasts.

Mainly dry conditions are expected today through Thursday
evening.

Another storm system is expected to bring widespread rainfall
to the region late Thursday night into Friday evening. Latest
trends in forecast QPF have increased, with the potential for
total rainfall amounts of 1 inch or greater across much of the
region. This will likely result in renewed river rises late
Friday into the upcoming weekend, and some additional river
flooding could occur within portions of the southern Adirondacks
and Mohawk Valley regions, where river levels are already
running high from recent heavy rainfall and snowmelt. Trends
will need to be watched very closely, and if this potential for
heavy rain increases further, then a Flood Watch will be issued.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL


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