Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS64 KAMA 270808
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
308 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night...

Synopsis: Just enough monsoonal moisture will remain in place
today to support a low end chance for storms in the afternoon and
evening (10-20%). Rain chances will be lower tomorrow as moisture
starts decreasing. Temperatures will remain around normal with
mid 90s being common.

Scientific Basis: The latest upper level analysis places a broad
area of anticyclonic flow centered over the central Rocky
Mountains where 500mb heights are around 595 dam. This has
resulted in very weak flow across the southern plains as the
faster northwest flow is up in the northern plains (ND,SD,MN).
Smaller scale anticyclonic circulations can be inferred in the
broader area of high pressure across the area, one of which has
helped maintain a monsoonal moisture fetch over the Panhandles.
This fetch of moisture has helped keep storm chances in the
forecast. The last round of showers and storms has mostly
dissipated with very light radar returns left in northeast NM. The
latest models and satellite/upper air observations suggest
moisture will stick around today, with PWATs remaining near the
90th percentile. Low level moisture will be best in the eastern
zones where dew points should stay in the low to mid 60s. This is
also where short term models are suggesting low level convergence
will increase near a surface trough. While a rogue thunderstorm
can`t be ruled out just about anywhere due to convective
temperatures being reached along remnant outflow boundaries, the
best chance will be near the surface trough in the eastern half of
the TX Panhandle. MLCAPE peaks around 1000 J/kg to 1500 J/kg with
weak shear, so storms will continue to be single cellular,
occasionally producing a strong updraft/downdraft pair. Gusty
winds will be the main threat with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg along
with potential for some precip loading.

Tomorrow, drier air is expected to start moving in as winds aloft
become more easterly in response to the 500mb high pressure
center re-orienting over the central plains. The southern zones
may hold on to just enough moisture to see a rogue storm, but
chances are mostly below 10 percent. Temperatures should stay
fairly similar to today based on progged 850mb temperatures
staying around 28 degrees C on the Caprock. Surface winds should
keep some easterly component for most of the day, so the mixing
process shouldn`t over achieve too much keeping temperatures
moderated and near normal.

Ward

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday night...

High pressure will continue to dominate through Saturday. Come
Saturday an upper level pattern change will be possible. Models
are not in very good agreement at the moment, so it is hard to
say exactly what the pattern change will do for the FA.

Rain chances will be slim to none on Thursday and Friday. But an
isolated storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out at this time.
With weak forcing for ascent under the high pressure, a parcel
will have to reach convective temperatures for a storm to get
going. Plenty of moisture will be present around H7 but conditions
look dry in the mid to upper levels per Bufkit soundings. Highs
will be in 90s across the area on Thursday and Friday.

Just a day or two ago, Wednesday and Thursday were looking like
the warmest days this week. Now Saturday is looking like the
warmest day with widespread upper 90s to triple digits. Then on
Sunday a possible cold front could bring temperature back down to
near normal. Also, Saturday night could see the return of precip
chances with the potential pattern change. The NBM has increasing
storm chances starting Saturday night in the northwest then
spreading across the entire FA by Sunday.

Hoffeditz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                95  70  94  69  93 /  10  10   5   0   5
Beaver OK                  95  71  97  71  97 /  10   5   0   0   0
Boise City OK              92  65  95  66  94 /  10  10   5   0   5
Borger TX                  99  74  99  73  99 /  10  10   5   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              96  70  96  69  95 /  10  10   5   5   0
Canyon TX                  94  69  93  68  92 /  10  10   5   0   5
Clarendon TX               93  71  93  71  93 /  20  20   5   0   0
Dalhart TX                 93  65  94  64  92 /  10  10   5   0   5
Guymon OK                  96  68  98  68  97 /  10  10   0   0   5
Hereford TX                95  69  94  67  92 /  10  10  10   5   5
Lipscomb TX                95  70  95  71  96 /  20  10   5   0   0
Pampa TX                   94  70  94  70  94 /  20  20   5   0   5
Shamrock TX                93  70  94  71  94 /  20  10   5   0   0
Wellington TX              95  70  95  71  95 /  20  10   5   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/36


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.