Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 211049
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
549 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.AVIATION...
Southwest winds will pick up into the 20 to 25 knot range with
higher gusts by mid to late morning. Winds will then decrease
after sunset. A cold front will move through late tonight shifting
the winds around the north. Skies are expected to remain VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm day is in store today as downslope winds combine with
lots of sunshine.  Highs should be in the 80`s and lower 90`s. Winds
will be up in the 15 to 25 mph range with higher gusts as a lee-side
surface trough strengthens in response to falling heights over the
southern Rockies.

An upper level short wave trough will pinch off as a cutoff low as
it moves south southeast across the southern Great Basin by Monday
morning.  A cold front will push south across the Panhandles Monday.
Once, this front gets south of the Panhandles it is expected to
touch off showers and thunderstorms.  It still remains to be seen if
any of these showers or thunderstorms will affect our southern areas
Monday afternoon. For now, have placed some slight chance pops in
the south for this possibility.  Shower and thunderstorm activity
should pick up for the Panhandles Monday night into Tuesday as a
couple of weaker short wave troughs rotate over the Panhandles from
the parent low which will be moving through northwest Mexico just
south of Arizona at the time.  The shower and thunderstorm activity
should wane Tuesday night as the upper low continues to move east
and a short wave in the northern stream moves across the Panhandles
and shoves the better moisture off to our southeast.  A severe
thunderstorm or two with large hail may be possible, mainly across
the southeast Texas Panhandle Monday night in association with a
lead short wave trough.  The atmosphere aloft may cool just enough
and the shear may be such that an elevated large hail storm will be
possible.  Still think our area will be too far north of the cold
front to get too much in the way of severe weather.

The forecast will remain dry from Wednesday through the rest of the
forecast.  After a cool day Tuesday in the 50`s and lower 60`s due
to showers and thunderstorms, high temperatures will warm to around
normal for Wednesday and Thursday and then back above normal for
late in the week.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/29


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