Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260351
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1151 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Broad zone of warm advection is in place, between high pressure
departing New England, and a cold front making inroads across the
Dakotas. This airmass has been rather dry, per 00Z APX raob, with
a PWAT of just 0.53", and a huge dry layer between 830 and 300mb.
But mid and high clouds are now making a push into western
portions of the forecast area. A few blips are showing up on radar
over central Lake MI, at 15k ft and above. Long way to go to
reach the surface, especially given the antecedent dry air. Expect
northern MI to be dry thru 12Z/8am, though a few showers could be
edging close to MBL by then.

Min temps will be much milder than the last several nights, due to
cloud cover and a light se breeze.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

...Milder night ahead...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon analysis reveals a sharp
short-wave ridge cutting up through the central Great Lakes region
into Quebec. Short-wave troughing follows close behind swinging
through the Midwest and just into the western Great Lakes with a
well defined circulation lifting up through eastern Minnesota/western
Wisconsin.

Stronger southeast return flow is now well established across the
region on the backside of retreating surface high pressure in New
England. Return flow has pulled higher low level dewpoint air
into northern Michigan...responsible for our substantial "heating
of the day" cloud cover across the region. Upstream, thicker band
of mid and high cloud cover along and ahead of the trough is
making inroads into the western Great Lakes, some of which is
already pressing into northern Lower Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Minimal through tonight.

We lose our "heating of the day" cloud cover fairly quickly this
evening with many areas becoming partly cloudy or even clear for a
bit. But, mid and high cloud cover will be on the increase
especially overnight into Monday morning, in advance of the
aforementioned short-wave trough that swings through on Monday.
With higher dewpoints, some cloud cover and increased low level
flow, temperatures will run much milder as compared to the last
few night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

...A Better Chance for Rain On Monday night/Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunder possible Monday evening.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Looks like the speed of the warm
front/rain has slowed a bit as the GFS is now about the speed of the
ECMWf. The NAM12 and RAP13 are all in agreement that the rain is
after 18z/Mon as well. The HiResW products are also in agreement.
However, it doesn`t look like the rain is likely, until the warm
front moves through and N Lower is briefly in the warm sector (after
06z/Tue). That`s when the models show the upper destabilization
occurs (mainly the Showalter index which goes sub 0C). The cold
front is moving into Lake Michigan and C Upper around 12z/Tue. This
will bring a line of thunderstorms, and then should be out of the
forecast area between 21z/Tue and 00z/Wed. It is possible that there
will be some showers between 00z/Wed and 09z/Wed, but the as the 500
mb low dips into N Lake Superior, and the 850 mb temperatures fall
to around +6C Rain showers become likely again. As the 500 mb low
passes the Upper Great Lakes by 12z/Thu, rain showers are possible
through the day on Wednesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Looks like we should have rain, and fair
bit. However, the way this summer has gone will believe it when it
gets here. Thunder is also possible, but the jet dynamics arrive
post frontal. However, there will be some good shear in the warm
sector, so something could get strong, but at this point, it looks
like it wouldn`t get severe.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

High Impact Weather Potential...Rain impacting the dryness.

Extended (Wednesday evening through Sunday)...Wednesday evening, the
rain showers are still possible as the 850 mb temperatures continue
to remain sub +7C through 12z/Thu with the 500 mb low moving to the
east. Thursday starts out with high pressure, then begins to cloud
up as another 500 mb shortwave moves through the Upper Great Lakes
with a warm front and brings another small chance for rain showers,
that expands Thursday night as the cold front moves through the
area. Friday may be dry as the ECMWF begins to stretch the cold
front out over the region and impulses travel up the front. The GFS
remains dry as it pushes the cold front south of the state. In fact,
the GFS has Saturday dry as well. The ECMWF doesn`t dry out the
region until Saturday. Sunday is a toss up, as the rain looks to go
north and south of the forecast area on the GFS, while the ECMWF
continue to keep things dry through Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1151 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

High pressure continues to move east away from New England, while
a cold front advances into the western Dakotas. Mid/high clouds
are increasing ahead of the incoming system, though precip is
still a long ways off. Quiet/VFR tonight into Monday morning,
though showers will push into nw lower MI after 18Z. MVFR
cigs/vsbys possible in nw lower MI after precip arrives in the
afternoon. IFR conditions become more common Monday evening as
cigs/vsbys worsen.

Light se winds overnight, but will become somewhat gusty again on
Monday. LLWS by late Monday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Southeast winds are gustier out there today. However, most marine
sites/obs remain below small craft advisory levels. So, I may
cancel the current headlines with the afternoon forecast issuance.
However, gusty winds return for Monday afternoon onward through
midweek when small craft headlines will most likely be needed.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
     LHZ345>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
     LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BA


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