Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 231056
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
656 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level trough will be over the region today, bringing
cooler temperatures, partly cloudy skies and perhaps an
isolated shower in central New York. A cool Canadian high builds
just to our north tonight through the weekend. This will keep
our weather dry and cool under partly sunny skies. expect a
gradual warming trend next week, with chances for showers and
thunderstorms returning by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

645 AM Update...Adjusted cloud cover up across the southeastern
half of the forecast area, where mid and high level clouds
continue to stream overhead. A few rain showers are still
impacting the far SE boundary of our CWA, but these will move
out in the next hour or two. Skies are mostly clear, aside from
some sct cirrus up north near Penn Yan, Auburn, Syracuse and
Rome.

Previous Discussion Below

Scattered rain showers are still skirting the Wyoming
Valley, Poconos and Sullivan county NY. Based on upstream
radar/satellite trends expect these light showers to continue in
this area for at least the next several hours, only very slowly
exiting to the southeast around or just after daybreak. The
rest of the area is dry under mostly clear skies across Central
NY for the rest of the overnight. Areas of fog are already
forming in the deeper valleys in central NY, this will linger
until around daybreak as well.

Upper level trough will remain in place over the region during
the day today. GOES-East WV loop shows a shortwave disturbance
near Georgian Bay/Lake Huron that will drop south toward our
area later today. An upslope NNW flow and cold pool aloft should
pick up just enough lake moisture to allow for bkn strato
cumulus develop starting late morning and lasting well into the
afternoon across much of CNY and the N. tier of PA. Cannot rule
out an isolated shower near the Finger Lakes as well, otherwise
it will remain dry today. Further south across the Wyoming
Valley, Poconos and Sullivan County NY, it will be a rather
thick layer of high clouds that may linger much of the day.
Overall, today is looking mostly cloudy, with some breaks of sun
at times, both early (north) and late in the day. Northwest
winds increase 6-12 mph during the afternoon, and high
temperatures only reach the upper 60s to mid-70s.

Tonight: Surface ridging builds over the area from the north.
Cloud cover should dissipate quickly this evening, leading to
mostly clear skies overnight. Winds become light northerly or
variable. There will likely be fog formation in the typical
river valleys around the area. One thing of note is that a weak
upper level low at 500mb will actually be on top of the area,
but this low has very limited moisture...so at worst there could
be some cloud development. Very cool, with lows 45-52 most
locations.

Saturday: Previously mentioned weak upper level low remains
over the area, but surface ridging and very dry mid level air
will also be in place; therefore should be dry. Overall, am
expecting another seasonably cool day under partly to mostly
sunny skies. Light north winds continue 5-10 mph and high
temperatures again reach the upper 60s to mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overall, a dry and seasonably cool airmass will be in place
during this period, with highs in the lower to mid 70s and lows
ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s, with some mid 40s in the
higher elevations of the Catskills. While the likelihood is
that completely dry weather will prevail through Monday, there
remains some uncertainty regarding Sunday`s forecast, mainly
across the extreme eastern portions of the forecast area as an
upper level low spins off the southern New England coast. At
this time, it appears that the dry air will likely win out in
our area, and therefore do not have any POPs in Sunday`s
forecast. Should enough low level moisture from the Atlantic
make it to our eastern zones, there would be the possibility of
a shower or two on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main feature to track during this period will be a slow
moving cold front that will approach the area and eventually
move through the area during the Monday night through Wednesday
night timeframe. Along with this approaching front will be an
increasing chance for showers and some thunderstorms, with the
greatest chance for this being on Wednesday at this time. That
being said, there remains some timing differences of this front
between the various model solutions and therefore this forecast
is subject to change a bit as we get closer.

Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend as well, with
highs likely getting to the upper 70s to lower 80s by mid-week.
The above mentioned front should finally clear the area by
Thursday, resulting in a drying trend. Just a slight chance of
seeing a few additional showers on Thursday with highs generally
in the upper 70s to lower 80 again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5 AM Update

Mainly VFR expected through the TAF period. Mid and high level
clouds will continue streaming over KBGM and KAVP through the
morning hours.

Fog did not develop at any of the taf sites overnight and is no
longer expected early this morning. However, patchy valley fog
could develop late tonight toward the end of the taf period,
especially INVOF KELM.


By late morning and afternoon sct to bkn 3.5-5k ft strato-
cumulus everywhere with high clouds continuing at KAVP.

Light and variable winds or northwest through mid morning.
Then, northwest to north winds at 5 to 10 kts late morning and
afternoon. Light and variable winds again tonight.

Outlook...

Tonight through Monday...VFR, except late night/early morning
fog likely at KELM.

Monday...VFR, except late night/early morning fog likely at
KELM.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MJM


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