Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 191116
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
616 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers will taper off through the day today with
high pressure and quiet weather settling in through tonight. Another
winter system will bring light snow and ice to the area Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with light rain into Thursday. Quiet
weather returns Friday into Saturday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the persistent lake
clouds and snow showers downstream of Lake Ontario and the Finger
Lakes...and the cold temperatures this morning through tonight.

Surface high pressure moving into wrn NY this morning with a
north/nwly flow off Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes has been
enough to keep low clouds and scattered light snow showers around
central NY and into the nrn tier of PA this morning. The trend
through the rest of the morning will be to slowly lift the clouds
and any remaining snow showers to the north as the high to the west
builds eastward.

This area of high pressure will be the dominating force
today...keeping quiet and cold weather in place through tonight. A
light n/nw wind and overall cold air mass across the board will keep
temperatures today in the upper teens and lower 20s north...and mid
to upper 20s in PA. Winds go light and variable tonight with a
decent amt of clearing which will help drop temperatures back into
the single digits to the north and teens to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The next winter system will approach from the sw across the spine of
the Appalachian Mountains Wednesday morning in the form of a
deepening surface low. The parent upper low will remain further to
the west across the Central Plains and move e/newd into the Great
Lakes on Wed...and eventually across the Canadian border by Wed
night.

The surface high will shift slightly off the coast but remain
influential in keeping a persistent cold easterly flow into central
NY and ne PA Wed and into Wed night. Thermal profiles will remain
cold enough for all snow when the precip shield arrives during the
early Wed afternoon time frame...along and north of a warm front.
This will likely lead to a steady light to moderate snow through the
afternoon and into the early evening hours.

A nose of warmer air aloft will move in...sw to ne...after sunset
Wednesday and alter thermal profiles enough to change the snow to a
mix of sleet and snow initially...and then a mix of sleet and
freezing rain around midnight. Total snowfall and sleet amounts will
generally range from around 1 inch across the Finger Lakes into the
Mohawk valley...2 to 3 inches from the srn tier into the
Catskills...and 2 to 4 inches across ne PA. Accumulating snow will
be very minimal after midnight with sleet and freezing rain becoming
the dominant p-type. There will also be a noticeable dropoff in
precip intensity during the overnight hours. A dry slot will work
its way in from the sw...and also allow the column to lose ice
crystal, which will then lean p-types to light sleet, freezing
drizzle...or eventually drizzle or light rain as the depth of the
warm air increases closer to sunrise Thursday morning. At this time
it appears ice amounts should remain less than a tenth of an inch.
Best chance for ice is the srn tier of NY over to the srn Catskills
and across ne PA.

Winter weather headlines will likely be needed given the potential
for ice...however will remain in a holding pattern and allow for at
least 1 more cycle of model guidance before making any decisions.
The bulk of the heavier precip continues to remain further to the
south...which will limit snow and ice amts for our area...however if
a northward shift occurs will need to increase forecast amounts.
Model guidance has been fairly consistent keeping heavy precip to
the south, so not expecting significant snow and/or ice across
central NY or ne PA at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
415 AM Update...
Temperatures will not be extreme but they will fluctuate as we
interchange between post-frontal cold air advection and the warm
sector of passing systems.

We will briefly be in one of those warm sectors first thing
Thursday morning, with temperatures above freezing areawide by
around or shortly after dawn. Deeper moisture will have already
shunted east, so remaining precipitation will be in the form of
rain showers and they will be spotty. Highs Thursday will be
mainly 40s to lower 50s, mildest southeast which will be in the
warm sector slightly longer before a frontal passage.

Cold air advection will send temperatures down into the 20s
Thursday night followed by highs held back into the 30s to lower
40s Friday. There could be spotty lake enhanced snow
showers/flurries in parts of Central New York but moisture will
be very shallow, so prospects for anything measurable are low.

Renewed warm air advection will cause temperatures to rise
Saturday night into Sunday, though it appears any wintry mix on
the front side of the next system will be confined to Saturday
night and mainly in the higher terrain especially east of
Interstate 81. We will not have the anchoring high over the
northeast that is more typical of wintry mix/ice scenarios, so
ice if any will probably be light spotty and brief. After highs
of mid 40s-near 50 Sunday, we get back into cold air advection
Sunday night-Monday, with any post-frontal precipitation mixing
with/changing back to snow. At this point nothing high impact
is foreseen.

Previous discussion...
Dry weather and even some breaks in the clouds are expected
Friday through Saturday morning, then chances for snow and
mixed precipitation return later Saturday as a low pressure
system developing in the Lower Midwest funnels warmer and more
moist air into our region. Rain and periods of wintry mix
continue through Sunday as this system moves through the Great
Lakes. Chances for rain and mixed precipitation continue
throughout the day Monday as another upper- level wave moves
through behind this exiting system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BKN to OVC MVFR lake clouds continue to pour over central NY
early this morning. Lowest cigs...fuel alternate required...will
be found from KITH to KBGM...with MVFR cigs at KSYR and KELM.
Lake effect snow showers are occurring too with MVFR vsbys.
These conditions will continue for several more hours, but
should dissipate and lift after 15-16Z. VFR conditions expected
thereafter through the rest of the period.

A scattered deck may redevelop after 00Z Wednesday, but
confidence in MVFR cigs or worse is low. A BKN to OVC high deck
of clouds will begin to arrive late tonight ahead of the next
approaching low pressure.

Northwest winds will be 5 to 10 kts today with variable winds
less than 5 kt this evening...and near calm winds tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Generally VFR...with restrictions likely later in
the afternoon as snow develops south to north.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Restrictions likely in snow,
mixed precipitation or rain.

Friday and Saturday...VFR under high pressure.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...HLC/MDP
AVIATION...BJT/TAC


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