Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 251413
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1013 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Departing high pressure will keep it dry today with sunshine
giving way to increasing clouds. However, a low pressure system
moves through the region tonight through Friday with rain and
perhaps a brief rumble of afternoon thunder. Showers diminish
Friday night into early Saturday, only to return with another
disturbance Sunday and continued cool temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
10 am update...
Minor changes to the clouds cover and temperatures. Temperatures
are rebounding quickly despite the cold start in the 30s.
Temperatures rising through the 40s and 50s to peak in the mid
and upper 60s late afternoon. High clouds are moving in now.
Thicker clouds will push into the southwest this afternoon.

345 AM update...
After quiet conditions today, a system will bring rain tonight
into Friday. While a big impact is not expected, the main
forecast concern will be a final convective line of showers-
embedded thunder Friday afternoon-early evening which could pose
minor issues.

High pressure is currently in charge, with some high thin
clouds passing by due to a weak passing shortwave aloft. This
initial patch of high clouds will quickly move east and allow a
decent amount of sunshine through at least midday before clouds
start to increase out of the south this afternoon. That will
boost temperatures well into the 60s for highs today, with a
variable to light southwest wind.

However, well to our west a southern stream wave will join
forces with a northern stream wave digging into the Upper
Midwest. As phasing occurs, cyclogenesis will ensue in the Ohio
Valley, with the surface low then reaching Lake Erie first thing
Friday morning. Ahead of the low, a warm front will form with
increasing moisture tapping the Gulf of Mexico, allowing a batch
of rain to spread southwest to northeast across our region
starting this evening but especially overnight through Friday
morning. This first wave should yield about 3 to 6 tenths of an
inch of rain.

Models have trended a bit stronger and more negatively-tilted
with the wave that pushes through Friday afternoon-early
evening. This will include increased south-southeast winds
Friday surging dewpoints into the lower to mid 50s along with
temperatures getting into the upper 50s-mid 60s. There may be a
lull in rain for midday, though still a good amount of cloud
cover. The negative-tilt of the wave however will allow a narrow
axis of modest instability, mostly elevated/not surface-based,
to sneak ahead of the cold front of the system. Thus, in
coordination with surrounding offices and the Storm Prediction
Center, a mention of thunder has been added to the forecast
Friday afternoon-early evening to accompany the expected
convective line of showers. The better chance for that will be
from Southern Tier-Catskills in NY to all of Northeast PA.

The final batch of showers and embedded thunder could easily
produce another few to several tenths of an inch of rain. Speed
of the front should prevent bigger problems, but smaller poor-
drainage water issues and ponding on roadways may occur.
Instability will be limited and mainly elevated/aloft, so severe
convection is not expected though model trends will continue to
be monitored since some shear will be present. A few pockets of
stronger wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure storm system will pull a cold front into New
England Friday night and Saturday. Showers are forecast behind
the front as cool air wraps around the storm and moves into NY
and PA. A few wet snow showers are possible over the northern
and eastern forecast area early Saturday morning as temperatures
fall into the 30s.

Scattered showers are expected on Saturday as the cool northwest
flow continues. Highs will reach the upper-40s to lower-50s.

Precipitation will taper off Saturday night as the eastern storm
finally exits the region. Temperatures will fall into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A trough will persist over Eastern Canada for much of the
long term forecast period with numerous waves moving across NY
and PA.

On Sunday, a low will track out of the Ohio Valley and across
PA. This storm will bring rain to the forecast area with an
additional 0.25 to 0.40 inches of precipitation by Sunday night.

A storm tracking out of the Midwest into the Ohio Valley will
extend a warm front toward PA on Monday and bring additional
shower activity to NY and PA. This frontal system will keep
scattered showers over our forecast area Monday night through
early Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will finish passing through with VFR today, yet
an approaching warm front will cause clouds to increase later
today through this evening. Ceilings will develop and then lower
overnight, eventually to fuel alternate required levels with
rain also spreading across the terminals from south to north.
Winds will be generally less than 7 knots and quite variable in
direction though becoming predominantly southeast 5-10 knots
tonight; see TAFs for specifics.

Outlook...

Friday... Restrictions likely with showers. Slight chance of
thunder later Friday for at least KAVP; possibly KELM-KBGM-KITH.

Saturday through Saturday night...Lingering restrictions
possible early Saturday, otherwise mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday... Restrictions possible in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP


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