Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 211803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
203 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

High pressure building into the area tonight remain over the
region through Wednesday bringing a with a warming trend. A
cold front crossing the region Friday will bring a chance of
showers and Thunderstorms for the end of the week.


Upper level low pressure system located north of the area will
gradually shift eastward tonight. At the surface, high pressure
centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to build into
the area. Although downslope flow is occurring this afternoon,
temperatures are still a little cool as 850mb temperatures
remain 1-2 standard deviations below normal. Temperatures are on
track to max out in the upper 60s this afternoon. Excellent
radiational cooling conditions tonight will allow temperatures
to drop into the middle to upper 40s.


Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday will lift
northeast to the New England coast allowing high pressure at the
surface and aloft to build into our region through Thursday.
Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected.

An upper low crossing the Great Lakes region will push a surface
trough across the Midlands early Wednesday. Moisture will remain
shallow, so no precipitation is expected. Winds will temporarily
shift west to northwest producing a warming downslope flow. Surface
high pressure will move off the coast Thursday setting the stage for
increasing moisture Thursday night.

High temperatures Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s then in the
low to mid 80s Tuesday through Thursday. Overnight lows will be in
the low to mid 50s Monday night and around 60 both Tuesday night and
Wednesday night.


Southern stream shortwave energy is forecast by all guidance to
cross the lower Mississippi Valley into the southeastern states
Thursday night through Sunday. Models continue to have timing
differences related to interaction with northern stream energy
crossing the Great Lakes. The GFS has the southern stream system
moving off the coast Friday night while the ECMWF closes off the
upper low over the southeastern states, thus is much slower. Will go
with a chance of showers through Sunday though confidence is low
given model differences. Have indicated the highest pops on
Friday with a chance for thunderstorms as a cold front moves
through the region.

Temperatures through the long term will be near to slightly above


High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the 24-hr TAF

Satellite imagery shows a field of fair weather cumulus across
the area with bases around 4-5kft. High pressure will continue
to provide dry weather through tonight with northwesterly winds
at 5 to 10 knots. Clouds will diminish after sunset this evening
with winds becoming light and variable. No fog expected at the
terminals early Monday morning due to the dry airmass. High
pressure will provide dry weather at the terminals again on
Monday with VFR conditions expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected through Thursday
with high pressure dominating. The chance of rain and associated
restrictions will return Thursday night and Friday as low
pressure moves along the Gulf Coast.




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