Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 192323
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
623 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the western Great Lakes will move east
to New England through tonight. Low pressure will develop over the
southern Plains and track towards the Central Great Lakes, pulling a
warm front north into the area. A weak cold front will quickly
follow as this system continues northeast into Quebec on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet through the evening hours with high pressure across the
eastern Great Lakes. Clouds will increase and thicken as the
evening goes on. It will be precipitation to arrive overnight
and early Wednesday with a dynamic system that will cause some
minor issues with a wintry mix.

Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for the entire area
although impacts for most will be limited. Snow overspreads the
area at first. With good lift and snow growth will see quick
accumulations over the first few hours of snowfall. As warm air
arrives aloft the transition to freezing rain will take place.
With the strong advancement of warm air, think the duration of
freezing rain will be limited to about three hours with the
exception being the Toledo area and northwest PA which may hold
on a bit longer. Surface temperatures will warm above freezing
and rain will be the precip type. Best snowfall accumulations
still look to be south of US 30. Icing will be a few/several
hundredths of an inch just about anywhere.

This is all due to low pressure moving out of the central
Plains to the central Great Lakes tonight and tapping into deep
moisture. Rain continues into the early evening Wednesday and
then drying wraps in behind the system diminishing the threat of
rain/ending up with some light rain/drizzle Wednesday night.

Temperatures will fall back several degrees this evening and
then hold steady in the mid 20s. Will rise into the 40s and hold
there into Wednesday evening. By Thursday morning temperatures
return to the freezing mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Thursday in the wake of a cold front, the
parent low north of the region in southern Ontario. High
pressure will be building into the central plains from Montana.
Kept a very low chance of leftover flurry into the morning hours
with flow off the lake and retreating moisture. Otherwise
expect dry conditions as the low continues northeast and the
high builds in. High pressure will dominate Thursday night and
Friday. Friday night the high moves to New England and low
pressure moves into the southern Plains. Warm advection will
develop across the Ohio Valley and with southerly flow out of
the GLFMX, moisture will be increasing through the night. Both
the GFS and ECMWF bring deep moisture move into the Ohio Valley
by 12Z Saturday. Will have chance pops reaching our southern
most counties by Saturday morning. Main concern would be for the
potential for freezing rain as temps aloft rise well above
freezing. For now also expect surface flow to be out of the
south and with that, warming temps towards morning so will keep
precip just rain. If sub freezing temps linger in nwrn OH into
the morning however the TOL area could see a brief period of
freezing rain before turning to rain Saturday morning. For
Saturday, moisture continues to move into the area as southerly
flow continues and the low reaches northern MO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday night the MO low deepens rapidly as it moves into the
central Great Lakes. A warm front will proceed the low through
the region followed quickly by a cold front. Will have
categorical pops for rain through the overnight. Saturday night
will be another night with rising temps especially east ahead of
the cold front. Sunday highs will likely be early with
steady/falling afternoon temps in the cold advection behind the
cold front. Best chance for precip will be far northeast OH and
nwrn PA although not expecting a washout as most forcing will be
well north and east of the region. A similar setup for Sunday
night. Will have chance pops far northeast for flow off the
lake. Temps at 850mb will drop to -10C by Monday morning
effectively changing any precip from rain to snow through the
overnight. Monday, high pressure builds in from the west. Could
see a leftover snow shower nern PA but dry for the most part.
High pressure will provide a dry Monday night. Tuesday another
low heading for the central Great Lakes will bring an increasing
threat for rain in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The main aviation concerns for the next 24 to 30 hours with this
TAF update will be the threat of a wintry mix for all airports,
lower ceilings, and lower visibilities. We will start out this
evening with VFR conditions with increasing high and mid level
cloudiness. Light snow will start to move into the area from
southwest to northeast between 09z and 12z in the morning.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be likely becoming IFR in
heavier bands of snow. Ceilings will continue to lower early
Wednesday morning become widespread IFR for all sites through
Wednesday afternoon. We will see the light snow transition to
a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet. As temperature warm up
above freezing late Wednesday morning and midday hours, the
wintry mix will change to just a cold rain. Widespread IFR and
some potential for LIFR conditions will continue Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Confidence is not high enough on the LIFR
potential at this time. Winds will start out easterly and
gradually increase 5 to 10 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots and a
shift to more southeasterly during the next 24 hours. Gusty
winds will return by Wednesday morning and afternoon up to 25
knots for a few locations.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wednesday into Thursday. Non VFR possible
again Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light east flow overnight will turn east/southeast at 15 to 20 knots
Wednesday as high pressure over the lake moves to New England and
low pressure moves from the mid Mississippi Valley to southern
Wisconsin.  The low will continue northeast Wednesday night and
reach southern Quebec early Thursday turning winds southwest at
similar speeds. Thursday afternoon through Friday high pressure will
dominate over the lake allowing winds to diminish by evening
Thursday. The next significant system to affect the lake will move
through the central plains Saturday becoming quite strong as it
moves through the central lakes Sunday. Flow will increase from the
southeast Saturday night to 10 to 20 knots turning southwest Sunday
as speeds increase to possibly near gales by Sunday afternoon. Winds
speeds will slowly diminish through Sunday night as flow turns
northwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for
     OHZ003-006>014-021>023-033-089.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EST
     Wednesday for OHZ036>038-047.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon EST Wednesday for
     OHZ017>020-027>032.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM EST Wednesday for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...TK


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