Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 212328
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
728 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

...00Z AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region tonight.
This fair weather system will remain over the forecast area
through Monday.  A cold front will move through the Great Lakes
region on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Gradual clearing is occurring west to east across the forecast area
this afternoon.  This trend will continue overnight.  The 12Z models
show the clearing slowing over parts of NE OH and NW PA.  Low level
moisture lingers in this area so clouds will likely hang on through
the evening and dissipate after midnight.  A strong ridge of high
pressure will build over the forecast area on Monday.  This ridge
will bring pleasant conditions to all parts of the area with
slightly above normal temperatures.  The models show a cold front
approaching the western counties late Monday night.  The previous
forecast had a mention of showers over NW OH after midnight.  I see
no reason to change this line of thinking and I will keep a slight
chance of showers in NW OH late Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Tuesday with models showing low pressure
moving through the central lakes. A trailing cold front will move
into the area from the northwest during the afternoon as the low
reaches Ontario. A prefrontal trough will precede the cold front,
both boundaries likely toughing off precip.  Li`s drop to about -4
during the afternoon and while thunder will be possible across the
entire area, expect the best opportunity will be central and east
given timing. A lingering shower/thunderstorm will be possible in
the evening far east/southeast but on balance Tuesday night should
be dry as high pressure and very dry air build in from the
northwest. Fair weather will continue through Wednesday night.
Thursday will bring a chance of rain, mainly to the southern half of
the area as moisture returns in coordination with a weak short wave
moving east through the lower Ohio Valley. Most of the moisture
remains south of the area and with limited low level forcing, it
shouldn`t be a washout. Highs Tuesday 70 to 75, Wednesday upper 50s
to lower 60s, Thursday in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Have leaned more toward the GFS for the long term trends which show
low pressure moving east through MS/AL region with moisture streaming
north into the Ohio Valley through the night. The cold front will
move into the area from the northwest as a surface wave develops
over the region.  Will have chance pops in place for the overnight.
Friday high pressure and dry air will build into the area behind
the system, especially through the afternoon. Will hold onto a small
chance pop east through the morning and then dry the forecast
through the afternoon. Will continue dry weather through Saturday as
the high transits the area. saturday night and Sunday will have
chance/slight chance pops as a system moves through the lake into
the area. Highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday and 65 to 70
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will continue to move eastward through this
evening and tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds over the
region. MFVR conditions remain at ERI and YNG, but will
continue to improve to VFR overnight. An axis of IFR conditions
are possible tomorrow morning extending from YNG to CAK as some
models try and develop an area of lower visibility. Not
expecting IFR conditions at ERI as of now, but some MFVR could
develop around the same time period. Most of the TAF period will
have light and variable winds with a southerly shift developing
by tomorrow afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday into Wednesday morning.



Widespread MVFR conditions over the forecast area early this
afternoon. Gradually clearing is working in from the west as a
ridge of high pressure builds over the region. This trend will
continue through the evening hours. 12Z models indicate the low
level moisture may hang over parts of NE OH and NW PA through
the evening. The clearing may slow as it progress eastward. MVFR
may linger over ERI, YNG and CAK until after 03Z. Widespread VFR
is forecast for Monday. Light westerly winds will become light
southerly winds overnight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday into early Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure was building onto Lake Erie from the south this
afternoon.  Winds were 10 knots or less at most reporting stations,
and waves correspondingly muted as well. Tranquil conditions should
persist tonight and Monday before winds turn southerly Monday night
increasing to 10 to 15 knots as low pressure moves northeast through
the central lakes. Winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots Tuesday as
the low continues northeast reaching Ontario by afternoon.  Winds
will begin from the southwest but veer to the west during the
afternoon behind a cold front. Winds will continue to veer to the
northwest Tuesday night.  Small craft conditions will likely not
occur but waves on the south shore could approach 3 to 4 feet for a
while through the overnight.  Wednesday look for west to northwest
flow to diminish to 5 to 10 knots under high pressure. Winds will
remain light through Thursday night before increasing out of the
northwest 10 to 20 knots Friday behind another cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Garnet
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Griffin/Kahn
MARINE...TK


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