Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 270458
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.AVIATION...

Continued VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF
period, with MVFR to IFR conditions expected in the early morning
hours. With increasing moisture overnight and light winds, expect
to see some fog development and low ceilings around 09Z through
around 13Z-- particularly across the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 629 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

AVIATION...

/00Z TAFs/ Outside a brief period of MVFR to possible IFR
conditions between 10-14Z due to BR and CIGs, VFR will prevail.
Moisture will increase through TUE, which may be sufficient enough
to allow for isolated shower activity toward VCT after 18Z along
the sea breeze. For now, will hold off mentioning it in the TAFs
as chances still remain low. Light winds overnight will strengthen
to 10-15 KTs out of the S-SE TUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Mostly clear skies and mild temperatures expected once again
tonight. Toward early Tuesday morning, increasing low stratus and
patchy fog will likely develop as drier conditions continue aloft
combined with dewpoints in the 70s and light winds.

A mid level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico is progged to
shift west tonight into Tuesday. This will bring slightly deeper
moisture into S TX, primarily into the Victoria Crossroads. PWATs
are progged to approach 2 inches across the VCT area Tuesday, while
farther south and west remains drier and more capped. This moisture
along with a weaker cap and more instability across the northeastern
CWA will combine to produce isolated convection. The sea breeze will
be the focus for convection as it moves inland across the VCT area.

Tuesday evening is expected to be quiet, then a slight chance of
showers or thunderstorms will return to the eastern CWA late Tue
night after midnight in response to the upper low drifting west
across deep S TX into northeastern Mexico.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Long term forecast period remains hot and dry as high pressure
continues to dominate. A weak shortwave will move west along the
southern periphery of the ridge Wednesday into Thursday which could
lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms as PWAT values increase
to near 2.0". A slight chance of afternoon precipitation exists for
areas in the Victoria Crossroads and along the coast Wednesday
through the end of the week.

Heat indices continue to be the main story for the extended period.
Afternoon heat index values are expected to be 105 to 109 degrees
for most of South Texas through the long-term period. Heat Advisory
conditions may be possible near the end of the week as heat index
values reach 110 degrees.

MARINE...

Onshore flow will remain weak tonight through Tuesday night.
Increasing moisture will bring isolated showers or thunderstorms
late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Generally dry
conditions will continue through the week, with isolated showers
and thunderstorms becoming possible each afternoon Wednesday
through the weekend. Weak onshore flow will increase to weak to
moderate by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  93  77  94  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
Victoria          74  95  75  95  74  /  10  20  20  20  10
Laredo            74 102  76 100  76  /   0   0  10  10  10
Alice             72  98  74  96  74  /  10  10  10  20   0
Rockport          78  91  80  92  80  /  10  10  10  20  10
Cotulla           73 101  76  99  76  /   0   0  10  10   0
Kingsville        73  96  74  95  75  /  10  10  10  20   0
Navy Corpus       78  90  80  90  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

LS/77...AVIATION


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