Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 111119
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
519 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGs across S TX this morning is expected to become VFR by
mid to late morning as clouds decrease from west to east. VFR
conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period,
however clouds are expected to return to S TX late tonight, but
should remain above 3000FT. Winds will generally be light from the
north and northeast today, becoming light and variable tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Cloudy and chilly conditions this morning will give way to
decreasing clouds through the day as an upper level trough axis
shifts to the east of the area. As ridging builds across the area,
drier conditions will filter across S TX. Despite increasing
sunshine this afternoon, highs are expected to be only in the upper
50s to around 60, but this may be too low depending on how fast the
clouds clear out. Another upper level trough is progged to move
across the region tonight resulting in a surface trough developing
across the western Gulf of Mexico. This will keep a shallow weak
surface high draped across the CWA tonight. The low level flow just
above the surface will veer to the southeast and bring clouds back
across S TX overnight. Thursday is progged to be little warmer as
the environment modifies. A southerly low level flow over the
shallow surface high will result in mostly cloudy skies.

Minor coastal flooding can not be ruled out this afternoon due to a
persistent northeast flow, but the speeds will be decreasing through
the short term, which may lead to tides being just under 2 feet MSL
with the next high tide. Bob Hall Pier`s next high tide is at 448 PM
CST this afternoon. Will continue to monitor trends for possible
minor coastal flooding.

Rip Current risk is moderate today and Thursday due to long period
swells. Swell height of around 6 feet with a 9 period second is
currently being reported at buoy 020, but combined with the
strong northeast along shore wind should keep the risk below a
high risk.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

Behind an upper trough late Thu followed by a weak surface trough on
Fri, westerly flow will deepen and tug milder thicknesses across the
region for the end of the weekend and continuing through the
weekend. Barring some showers offshore near the base of the trough
Thu night, PWATs will edge lower particularly once low level winds
veer southwest on Fri behind a surface trough. Latest guidance is
trending much warmer on Fri which fits this drier westerly flow
regime well, so highs were nudged up accordingly. Saturday`s highs
could be a bit trickier across our northern zones as a cold front
stalls somewhere in the Hill Country per models, but this may easily
end up another 50-100 miles farther south as models often
underperform with shallow cool air masses. South of the front, highs
both Sat and Sun look to be well above normal with Sun likely faring
the warmest under the 850-700 mb thermal ridge.

Saturday`s front in the Hill Country should retreat ahead of the
next upper trough crossing the southern High Plains late Sun into
Monday, before the front finally pushes through all of Texas
sometime late Monday. The ECMWF is now about six hours faster with
Monday`s FROPA compared to the GFS (very acceptable for being 144
hours out), so no major changes were needed with high temps on
Monday. However, PoPs on Monday were focused more toward the Coastal
Bend and Gulf waters as 850 mb winds veer SW ahead of the front and
redirect the moist axis more toward the Upper TX Coast. The quality
of this moisture may also be in doubt given a short window of return
flow opening just 24 hours earlier. Given these concerns along with
a general lack of background forcing and meager height falls along
the southern periphery of the upper trough, Monday`s rain chances
continue to sit well below the NBM. Following some potentially
strong north winds Mon night, much cooler temps will round out Tue
and Tue night as broad surface ridging envelops much of the state.

MARINE...

Moderate to strong offshore flow this morning will continue to
decrease through the day with advisory conditions ending from west
to east by late afternoon. A weak to moderate north to northeast
flow can be expected tonight and Thursday as a surface trough
develops across the western Gulf of Mexico. Sufficient moisture and
convergence with the trough will lead to possible isolated showers
across the offshore waters through Thursday.

Weak to moderate northeast flow Thursday night will trend weaker
Friday and Saturday while turning westerly. Onshore winds will
return late Saturday and become moderate overnight into Sunday, with
occasionally strong onshore flow Sunday night into early Monday.
Following isolated showers Thursday night well offshore, shower
chances will return Sunday night and maximize late on Monday with
the arrival of a cold front and strong northerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    59  46  67  49  76  /   0  10  10  10   0
Victoria          58  41  65  46  73  /   0   0  10  10   0
Laredo            61  42  66  46  78  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             59  44  68  47  78  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          58  49  65  52  71  /   0  10  10  10   0
Cotulla           60  38  65  42  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        60  45  68  48  78  /   0  10  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       57  51  64  54  71  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION


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