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033
FXUS64 KCRP 131953
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
253 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...

MSAS analysis shows a surface trough draped along the Middle Texas
Coast and extends southward. This feature is progged to lift north
as a warm front tonight through Monday morning bringing deeper
moisture into S TX. PWATs are progged to increase to around 2
inches across eastern portions of S TX late this afternoon and
spread north and west through tonight. The deepening moisture, low
level convergence with the warm front, a mid level shortwave
approaching from the southwest and increasing CAPE (mainly across
the coastal waters and along the coast) will increase rain chances
across S TX tonight through Monday morning. The best chances will
be along the coast with lower chances spreading farther inland to
the Brush country overnight. Mainly showers are expected
overnight, however an isolated thunderstorm will be possible. As
the warm front lifts north Monday morning, the instability
increases and the short wave tracks across the area, the chance
for thunderstorms will increase. Through Monday afternoon, rain
chances decrease from southwest to northeast with the warm front
and short wave exiting the area. Upper level high pressure is
progged to build across S TX Monday afternoon into Monday night,
bringing slightly drier mid levels. Some models prog a few
showers Monday night along the coast, however only went with a
silent 10 POP for now given the high pressure aloft.

With the warm front lifting north, lows will be a bit warmer and
humidity will be on the increase tonight. Highs are expected to be
back in the 90s by Monday afternoon in response the upper high
building across the area and decreasing clouds.

Surface winds will be light and variable tonight becoming more
south to southeast on Monday.

Northeast winds across the gulf waters will maintain elevated tide
levels through tonight with tide levels reaching around 2FT above
MSL, or 1 foot inundation around high tide. This will result in minor
coastal flooding once again, mainly south of Port Aransas to
Baffin Bay. Above normal tides are expected to persist and the
Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be extended through mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...

The extended period begins in a brief lull between systems as
ridging at the surface and aloft brings dry and very warm weather.
Rain chances re-enter the forecast Tuesday night, especially late
Tuesday night into Wednesday as another cold front crosses the
region.

Isolated showers remain possible behind the front Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front stalls out just off the coast. By
Thursday night and Friday onshore flow strengthens especially along
the middle Texas coast, bringing an opportunity for isolated
streamer showers along the coast and up towards the Victoria
Crossroads.

Medium range models are increasingly picking up on a pool of
increased moisture moving up from the southern Gulf across the
northwest and north-central Gulf over the weekend. If that occurs
then South Texas could see isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms next weekend, with higher chances over marine areas.

Temperatures will start out the week at very high levels, with highs
well into the 90s Tuesday everywhere except right along the coast.
The frontal passage on Wednesday will bring temperatures down a
notch, but gradual warming through the end of the week will bring
afternoon highs back into the 90s in most areas by Saturday.

Minor coastal flooding will be possible for Gulf-facing beaches
south of Port Aransas for Tuesday and Wednesday a few hours either
side of high tide. ESTOFS data suggest the threat diminishing on
Thursday behind the front.

.MARINE...
A trough along the coast this afternoon will lift north tonight as
a warm front. This will lead to northeast winds shifting to the
southeast by Monday morning. Winds are expected to be weak tonight
through Monday becoming weak to moderate by Monday night. Weak to
moderate onshore flow is expected Tuesday. Rain chances will
increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front moves into
the region. Weak to moderate northeast flow is expected behind the
front Wednesday into Wednesday night. Onshore flow will resume by
Thursday afternoon. Moderate onshore flow will develop on Friday
as an area of low pressure forms over the southern plains. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the second
half of the week, ramping up further offshore for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  91  75  93  73  /  40  20  10  10  40
Victoria          69  90  73  93  70  /  30  30  10  10  60
Laredo            70  95  75  99  73  /  10  10   0   0  30
Alice             69  94  73  97  71  /  20  20  10   0  40
Rockport          77  88  80  90  76  /  50  30  10  10  50
Cotulla           69  92  74  97  72  /  10  10   0   0  50
Kingsville        70  93  74  96  72  /  30  20  10   0  30
Navy Corpus       77  87  80  91  76  /  40  30  10  10  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday For the following
     zones: Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM