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000
FXUS64 KCRP 230459
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1059 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include a NPW for dense fog over the ERN CWA until 13z
Saturday based on SREF visibility probabilities, most recent
observations, expected timing of the cold front. Extended the MWW
for the marine dense fog advisory until 15z Saturday. No other
significant changes. Note Aviation Discusion below with respect to
the 06z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect IFF/LIFR conditions owing to fog and low ceilings, in
advance of a cold front. Continue to expect the front to move
across South Texas from W/NW to E/SW during the approximately
10-15z Saturday period. Isolated/scattered showers may occur in
advance of front. Expect predominate VFR conditions by Saturday
afternoon through the remainder of the TAF period. Breezy NW/N
wind after frontal passage with wind speeds decreasing
significantly by late afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 619 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Note Aviaton Discussion below corresponding to the 00z TAFs.

AVIATION...

A transition to IFF/LIFR conditions, and generally light south
wind, are expected overnight in advance of a cold front. Expect
the front to move across the region from W/NW to E/SW across South
Texas during the approximately 10-15z Saturday period.
Isolated/scattered showers may also occur in advance of front.
Predominate VFR conditions expected Saturday afternoon. Expect
breezy NW/N wind after frontal passage, yet a decrease in speeds
near the end of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 429 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...

A quasi-stationary front remains over the nearshore waters of the
Texas coast. This front should very slowly move inland tonight.
Areas of fog and patchy drizzle/scattered showers will also
persist. As the frontal boundary moves inland, temperatures may
actually rise a few degrees tonight. A strong upper trough moving
through the Southern Rockies will eject northeast through the
Southern High Plains and into Kansas and Missouri Saturday
morning. This will help to bring a cold front through the area
starting around 09z and exiting by 18z. Scattered showers will
remain possible until the front passes. Model guidance suggests
instability will be marginal, but a couple of isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

Winds will quickly veer to the northwest and increase in speed to
between 12 and 20 kts. These winds will quickly advect
considerably drier air into the region dissipating the fog and
scattering out any remaining low clouds. Temperatures should still
be quite warm on Saturday despite the frontal passage, as most
locations rise into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees F. Wind speeds
should diminish after sunset Saturday while skies gradually clear.
The drier air and strong northwest winds will also result in
relative humidity values falling below 20% percent Saturday
afternoon across the Rio Grande Plains and portions of the Brush
Country. At this time, it appears any elevated fire weather
conditions will be short-lived. However, if the wind speeds remain
stronger for a longer period of time, a RFD may need to be issued
by later shifts.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Long term period starts off with quite pleasant weather on Sunday as
high pressure builds behind the cold front. Mainly sunny skies
accompanied by highs in the 70s and dry conditions are expected.
There will be a light breeze during the afternoon a reinforcing high
pressure sinks in. On Monday surface winds shift east over marine
areas as the ridging shifts to the east. This will allow a gradual
moisture return into the area. Think that rain chances should hold
off until Monday night over most of the area. A few showers over
marine areas could get close to the coast, but largely dry
conditions expected.

Moisture convergence will increase Monday night along with an
approaching upper level shortwave. Moisture has backed off a bit and
have lowered PoPs some, but still chance PoPs for the coast and
slight chance for the brush country. If this trend of holding
moisture more offshore continues, could see decreasing PoPs further
with future runs. Tuesday looks to have the best chance of rain for
most of the area as aforementioned shortwave passes and PWAT values
increase to as high as 1.5" along the coast. GFS model a bit higher
than ECMWF (1.0"), but has also been the more consistent of the two,
so will continue to side toward the GFS.

Guidance continues to be out of sync for later in the week, but will
continue to indicate slight chance PoPs through Thursday night as
both models have some elevated moisture over the area. A cold front
will likely move through at some point late in the week or into the
weekend, but details are very unclear on this right now.

Gradually warming temperatures are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday...though we`ll have to keep an eye on the Wednesday
forecast as GFS pushes some drier downslope air into the region and
progs temps to be quite warm. Will not jump on board with that yet
as it is a new feature, but do have temps in the upper 70s west.
Cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

MARINE...

Areas of dense sea fog will likely persist through tonight and
into early Saturday morning. Visibilities should begin to improve
around sunrise, and any remaining fog should quickly dissipate by
mid morning Saturday as a cold front moves across the area causing
the winds to veer to the northwest, which will also usher much
drier air into the region. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will also remain until the frontal passage.

Reinforcing ridging builds into the area Sunday and will increase
northeasterly winds to moderate levels with SCEC conditions
possible. Otherwise, expect occasional rain chance from Monday
through Thursday as weak disturbances and a weak coastal trough
affect the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    64  79  48  70  53  /  20  20   0   0  10
Victoria          61  75  46  68  47  /  40  40   0   0  10
Laredo            62  78  47  75  50  /  10   0   0   0   0
Alice             64  79  46  72  49  /  20  10   0   0  10
Rockport          62  75  52  67  54  /  20  30   0   0  10
Cotulla           58  74  41  72  46  /  20  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        65  80  47  72  51  /  20  20   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       63  77  55  65  56  /  20  20   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST Saturday For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal
     Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal
     Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Goliad...
     Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland
     Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces
     Islands...Victoria.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor...
     Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
     Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     out 20 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION