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499
FXUS64 KCRP 240041 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
741 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Monitoring showers streaming NE out of Mexico that may affect
LRD-COT in a few hours. Currently the environment out west may be
too stable to support thunder activity, but will expect activity
to increase late in the night, with thunder possible, out west due
to increasing upper level support. Outside of this, MVFR
conditions are expected develop overnight. Shower activity will
also begin to develop farther east late tonight through WED
morning. A few thunderstorms will be possible. MVFR CIGs are
expected to slowly lift to VFR toward 18Z. Models continue to hint
at a break in rain activity around and after 18Z, but with an
approaching frontal boundary, a line of showers and thunderstorms
is expected to develop and move through COT-LRD around 20Z,
shifting east through 00Z. For now, timing of showers and
thunderstorms approaching ALI-CRP-VCT may be just outside the
current TAF period, so did not mention in the TAFs. SE winds
should decrease to around 10 KT overnight, but strengthen again
WED with gusts of 20-25 KTs possible.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)...

The upper disturbance is expected to move slowly eastward across
the SWRN CONUS with the bulk of the synoptic scale lift over the
CWA early Wednesday morning through early Wednesday night
(NAM/ECMWF deterministic.) The GFS places the CWA in the left
front quadrant of the 200mb jet 09-12z Wednesday. Yet, CIN values
are expected to be significant. Nevertheless, the chance for
elevated convection will increase from west to east tonight.
Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cloud cover
notwithstanding, SBCAPE values are expected to rise to 1500-2000
J/kg Wednesday afternoon (greater values west) and CIN should
diminish. Concur with SPC regarding the risk for severe convection
beginning during the afternoon, beginning over the WRN CWA. The
NAM deterministic predicts a Supercell Composite parameter beyond
the supercell threshold for much of the CWA Wednesday afternoon.
Wednesday night, expect conditions conducive to severe convection
over the CWA at least until 03z Thursday. During the 03-06z
Thursday period, the risk for severe convection may rapidly
diminish from west to east. During the 06-12z Thursday period,
it`s probable that severe convection will be confined to the
Coastal Bend or offshore.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday Night)...

Any remaining showers/thunderstorms after 12z Thursday should
quickly move into the Gulf, then further east and out of the local
waters later in the morning.  The upper-level low/trough axis,
despite the cold frontal boundary passing through early in the day,
will take a while to pass through, so significantly drier air may
way until afternoon to arrive.  However, once it does arrive, deep
layer high pressure will dominate South Texas weather into early
next week.  Some breezy conditions are possible later Thursday and
Thursday night in offshore flow, but the surface ridge will be
nearly overhead Friday, with only modest return flow over the
weekend.  More significant southerly flow and thus moisture increase
is expected early next week, but still rain-free conditions should
prevail.  Although low dewpoints will allow for a couple of
relatively cool overnights Thursday and Friday nights (with lows in
the 50s Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads), overall temperatures
into early next week will be some above normal.  Expect high
temperatures throughout the period to range from low 80s along the
coast and portions of the Victoria Crossroads to low to mid 90s in
the Rio Grande Valley.

MARINE...

SCA conditions anticipated for tonight over the southern offshore
waters owing to 6-7ft seas. Expect mainly SCEC wind over the
coastal waters. Only isolated convection Wednesday, with scattered
to numerous showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night. Showers and
thunderstorms should be ending west to east across the local Gulf
waters on Thursday as a cold front passes through. This front will
usher in dry air that will dominate into early next week.
Offshore flow in the front of the wake should remain below
advisory levels, and winds should gradually turn easterly then
southerly Friday into Saturday. Winds and seas should remain
relatively modest through the weekend, before stronger onshore
flow is anticipated for the start of the next work-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  80  65  86  64  /  20  30  50  10   0
Victoria          69  79  62  81  62  /  30  40  70  10   0
Laredo            71  86  62  90  64  /  30  40  30   0   0
Alice             70  82  62  86  61  /  30  40  50   0   0
Rockport          72  77  65  81  66  /  20  30  60  10   0
Cotulla           68  81  59  86  60  /  40  50  30   0   0
Kingsville        71  82  64  87  62  /  20  30  50   0   0
Navy Corpus       74  78  69  84  69  /  20  20  50  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION