Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232007
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
207 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely this evening areawide with
gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy rainfall. A few storms
may be severe, with damaging winds. Rain chances will continue
overnight through far west Texas before another round of showers
and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. The best chances for
rainfall will be east of the Rio Grande River. Drier air arrives
on Thursday with mostly clear skies and light winds. Temperatures
will warm back to above normal over the weekend, with stronger
winds returning next Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the
forecast area this afternoon, focusing on the mountains early. An
upper level low, currently depicted on WV satellite imagery being
centered over northern Sonora, will slowly progress eastward over
northern Chihuahua and into southwest TX over the next 24 hours.
Cooler mid-levels has helped to destabilize the atmosphere, with
skinny, tall CAPE in the range of 800-1200 J/kg. An 18Z sounding
today at White Sands Missile Range showed 800 J/kg, with further
destabilization over the last couple hours. Moisture is modest,
however deeper moisture exists over far west TX and Otero County,
with precipitable water values in the 0.50-0.70" range and
dewpoints in the upper-40`s. At the moment, orographic lifting has
been sufficient in developing storms early this afternoon.
Increasing northeast flow behind a secondary push of continental
Plains air has begun as surface pressure drops to our southwest
and a pressure gradient tightens. This influx of easterly winds
will add to low level convergence and allow for lowland convection
this evening.

All ingredients in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this evening into tonight, with a focus east of
Continental Divide. The primary threats are strong wind gusts from
thunderstorm outflows along with small hail. Due to the lack of
deep moisture, the flooding threat still remains low with the
excepting being further east over Hudspeth County. High-res CAMs
seem to be in agreement about continuing storm chances for far
west TX overnight into tomorrow morning, so expecting rain totals
to be highest there.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow
behind the upper low, primarily east of the Rio Grande where the
instability is sufficient. Orographic lifting will help force some
showers for the Gila Wilderness in southwest NM, but mid-level
subsidence will hinder thunderstorm strength out west. Northwest
steering flow will help bring convection off the mountains and
down to the lowlands along the International Border tomorrow
afternoon.

We`ll be drier Thursday into the weekend as an upper ridge builds
in. Temperatures will warm back to above normal, with lowland
highs approaching 90 degrees Friday through Sunday. Winds look to
remain light over the weekend with weak west flow. Broad long-
term model agreement for increasing winds Monday/Tuesday as a
shortwave trough passes over the Southern Rockies. Dry, southwest
flow looks to dominate the weather pattern as we begin the month
of May.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/00Z-25/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN050-070 BKN100-120 with isolated 3-5SM -TSRA BKN030-040
lowlands west of the divide while scattered to numerous 1-3SM
TSRA BKN020-030 mountains and lowlands east of the divide through
06Z, then storms mainly focused east of KALM-KELP line. Some areas
may see some MVFR cigs after 06Z of BKN015-025 where rainfall
occurs through evening hours. Skies gradually becoming SCT-
BKN060-080 after 15Z from west to east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper low will be moving south of the area over the next day with a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially east of
the divide tonight and mainly far west Texas into the Sacs
Wednesday. Some areas could see some strong storms this evening with
heavy rain possible over Hudspeth county. As this system exits area,
broad upper ridge will build over the Rockies and temperatures will
be warming back into the upper 80s to lower 90s for the lowlands by
Friday and continuing through the weekend. Minimum relative
humidity values will remain above 20 percent most areas Wednesday
before falling back into the teens and even some single digits
starting Thursday. Winds will be on the light side through Sunday,
but increase ahead of an approaching trough and conditions could
reach critical thresholds Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 52  75  55  85 /  40  20  10   0
Sierra Blanca           47  65  47  79 /  60  40  10   0
Las Cruces              47  74  49  84 /  30  10   0   0
Alamogordo              47  74  50  80 /  40  20  10   0
Cloudcroft              35  51  37  62 /  50  40  20   0
Truth or Consequences   47  76  52  83 /  30  20  10   0
Silver City             44  69  48  77 /  30  20   0   0
Deming                  45  76  48  85 /  30  20   0   0
Lordsburg               45  77  49  85 /  20  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro      54  75  56  84 /  40  20   0   0
Dell City               48  74  47  82 /  40  40  10   0
Fort Hancock            52  74  52  84 /  50  40  10   0
Loma Linda              49  68  50  80 /  50  30  10   0
Fabens                  53  75  53  84 /  50  30  10   0
Santa Teresa            48  74  50  84 /  40  20   0   0
White Sands HQ          52  74  55  82 /  40  20  10   0
Jornada Range           45  74  47  83 /  30  20  10   0
Hatch                   45  77  47  84 /  30  20   0   0
Columbus                49  78  53  86 /  30  20   0   0
Orogrande               47  73  49  81 /  40  20  10   0
Mayhill                 39  61  41  69 /  40  40  20   0
Mescalero               38  61  40  69 /  40  40  20   0
Timberon                36  58  37  67 /  40  30  20   0
Winston                 35  70  39  76 /  40  20   0   0
Hillsboro               44  74  48  81 /  30  20   0   0
Spaceport               43  76  47  83 /  30  20  10   0
Lake Roberts            35  71  40  77 /  30  20   0   0
Hurley                  41  72  46  79 /  30  20   0   0
Cliff                   37  78  40  83 /  30  20   0   0
Mule Creek              43  74  47  81 /  30  10   0   0
Faywood                 43  72  48  79 /  30  20   0   0
Animas                  44  79  49  86 /  20   0   0   0
Hachita                 42  77  47  86 /  20  10   0   0
Antelope Wells          45  78  49  84 /  20   0   0   0
Cloverdale              45  74  50  82 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30-Dennhardt/26-Grzywacz


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