Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 270729
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
129 AM MDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...Updated for 06Z TAF Discussion...

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE...
A few storms are hanging on around KLRU this evening, warranting
VCTS in the  TAF for the next hour or so. Otherwise VFR conditions
overall through the morning. Wind will become light, variable, and
terrain driven by sunrise. Southerly wind less than 10 knots through
the day Tuesday, with another round of terrain driven storms
possible after 18Z. Outflow boundaries may bring storms to lowland
terminals, however have left out of the TAFs due to their
sporadic nature and low confidence.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...237 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled conditions will continue throughout the week and into
the weekend with a chance for showers and thunderstorms each and
every day especially to areas west and north of the EL Paso
county. Storm chances will vary depending on your location with
areas mainly west of the Rio Grande having a better chance for
seeing storms than to areas east of the Rio Grande. Better storm
coverage will likely take place beginning on Thursday and
continuing through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday...
Upper high now centered over northern Colorado and will be the
main player through this period and over the next several days.
Upper low now off the west coast and forming a quasi Rex Block
with upstream deformation zone just off the west coast. This
blocking pattern will hold through this forecast period. This will
keep a moist southeast flow over the CWA tonight for scattered
thunderstorms. Flash Flood Watch still in affect for the Sacs and
looks reasonable given the high antecedent rainfall from
yesterday.

The flow turns a bit more easterly Tuesday as a ridge rotates around
the high. This will reduce moisture somewhat, with PWs tonight of
1.1 to 1.3 inches shrinking to .9 to 1.1 inches Tuesday. Thus expect
thunderstorm coverage more in the isolated category and less threat
of flash flooding. With less clouds and slightly lower humidity,
high temps should heat up to normal or slightly above.

&&

.LONG TERM...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will be centered across
parts of the Rockies and Central Plains brining semi-active
unsettled conditions to our area. Shortwaves moving along the
southern periphery if this ridge coupled with abundant moisture
and sufficient instability will continue to bring storm chances
across the Borderland. For Tuesday evening, any remaining storms
from the day should die out before midnight leaving much of the
area relatively dry. There is a low chance for showers and
thunderstorms west of the the Rio Grande especially across the
Gila Region as moisture and instability extends into night hours.
The lows on Wednesday morning will above the climatological normal
for this time of the year. The winds will generally variable and
light to moderate at times. By Wednesday, similar conditions are
expected with afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly over the
high terrain like the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains. I
can`t completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two
developing across the lowlands should there be a strong enough outflow
boundaries from maturing thunderstorms that developed over the
mountains. The winds by then will be mainly light to moderate and
from the southeast. The high for El Paso will be around 96
degrees, which will be above the average for this time of the
year. Some storms may linger into the Wednesday night; however,
with the loss of daytime heat and not much upper level support,
the chances for storms continuing at least until the midnight will
very low.

By Thursday, better coverage for storms will be mainly across the
western half of CWA as moisture moves up from Mexico upwind of
upper level ridge as it weakens, becomes elongated and shifting
to parts of the Central Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley.
With weakness in the ridge and surface CAPE below 1000 J/kg,
expect a chance for showers and thunderstorms across much of area
with better storms chances near the AZ/NM border. On Friday, the
upper level ridge will continue to linger across aforementioned
area causing moisture to be drawn up from the Mexico with showers
and thunderstorms expected mainly in the afternoon and evening
hours, again to areas west of the Rio Grande. The highs on both
days will be slightly on the cooler side due to increase cloud
coverage and rain cool air. The winds will generally light to
moderate and from east southeast. I should also mention that the
winds could be strong at times especially in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. By the weekend and into early next week,a general
monsoon pattern sets up as the upper level ridge weakens across
the the South Plains with a continuous moisture push moving in across
our area. With that being said, much of the moisture will be
confined to the west of the El Paso County; thus, much of the
storm activities should be towards western New Mexico. However,
with good outflow boundaries, storms could make their way across
the eastern CWA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue tonight with some heavy rain
and local flooding possible. The atmosphere will dry slightly on
Tuesday and Wednesday, with just some isolated thunderstorms. More
moisture moves in Thursday and Friday for a bit higher thunderstorm
coverage.

Min RHs: Lowlands 18-25% through Saturday. Mountains 25-40% through
Saturday. Vent rates fair-good Tue/Wed, then very good-excellent
Thu/Fri.

&&

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 97  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca           92  67  91  66 /   0   0  10  20
Las Cruces              96  69  95  68 /   0  10   0  10
Alamogordo              94  70  92  68 /  20  20  20  10
Cloudcroft              72  52  71  50 /  30  30  50  20
Truth or Consequences   94  69  92  70 /  20  20  10  20
Silver City             86  62  86  63 /  40  20  30  20
Deming                  97  68  96  68 /  20  10  10   0
Lordsburg               94  67  93  68 /  20  20  20  20
West El Paso Metro      98  75  96  74 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               97  68  95  68 /   0   0  20  10
Fort Hancock            99  71  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda              89  68  90  67 /  10   0   0  10
Fabens                  98  72  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa            96  70  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          95  73  94  71 /  10   0   0  10
Jornada Range           94  69  94  69 /  10  10   0   0
Hatch                   96  69  95  69 /  10  20   0  10
Columbus                96  70  96  70 /  10  20   0  10
Orogrande               95  69  94  68 /  10   0   0  10
Mayhill                 81  58  80  56 /  30  20  40  20
Mescalero               81  57  80  55 /  30  20  40  20
Timberon                80  57  79  55 /  30  20  20  20
Winston                 84  57  84  58 /  40  40  40  20
Hillsboro               91  65  89  66 /  30  30  30  20
Spaceport               94  68  93  68 /  10  20  20  10
Lake Roberts            84  57  84  58 /  40  40  40  20
Hurley                  89  62  89  63 /  30  20  20  10
Cliff                   91  61  92  61 /  30  20  30  20
Mule Creek              88  63  89  63 /  30  20  30  30
Faywood                 89  65  89  66 /  20  20  30  10
Animas                  94  66  93  67 /  20  20  20  30
Hachita                 94  66  94  67 /  20  20   0  10
Antelope Wells          94  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20
Cloverdale              88  63  89  64 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/15


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