Area Forecast Discussion
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967
FXUS64 KEPZ 192130
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
230 PM MST Tue Feb 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Today`s winter weather will move out of the area tonight ahead of
breezy west winds. A brief warming trend will end on Thursday with
the arrival of the next Pacific storm system. The main impacts
will focus on the Gila Region, with scattered rain and snow
showers through Friday afternoon. Snow amounts vary greatly with
elevation, with two to five inches of snow possible around Silver
City with higher totals above 7500 feet. Drier weather returns
this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today`s winter weather produced widespread snow flurries across
much of the CWA. Most areas only got a trace of snowfall, with a
few mountain zones receiving a quick inch or so. Snow showers
will dissolve this evening leading to dry conditions overnight as
a Pacific frontal boundary moves eastward across the area with low
level drying. Tonight will be cold with temperatures below
freezing and mountain temps dropping into the lower teens. West-
southwest flow through Thursday will provide a brief warming
trend, but temperatures will still remain below normal through the
forecast period.

The next system arrives on Thursday with the biggest impacts
across the Gila National Forest and our northwest zones. A polar
jet streak oriented north-south along the U.S. west coast will
help advect a cutoff low southward, bringing with it cooler air
and mid-level moisture from Baja California. This Pacific storm
is similar temperature-wise as today`s winter storm, but with
slightly better moisture. The system is expected to slow down and
remain centered over Arizona Thursday through Friday morning,
with the leading edge of precipitation reaching the Gila Region.
This sets up a nearly 36-hour rain/snow event for the Gila Region
with steady scattered rain/snow showers. Snow levels will rise to
around 6000 feet Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, so areas
like Silver City (6100`) look to be right on the rain/snow line,
making snow total forecasting difficult at this time. For now,
the forecast calls for primarily rain showers below 5000 feet, a
wet 2-5" for Silver City, and higher snow amounts above 7500
feet.

Excellent model agreement adds confidence in the timing of zonal
flow behind this system and an acceleration of the upper level
trough over New Mexico and off to the central Plains Friday night
into Saturday. Lowland snow flurries are possible Friday night
behind the passage of a Pacific cold front, but most accumulations
will remain up in the mountains. Dry weather returns this weekend
into next week, with zonal flow aloft dominating the weather
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Skies will be
clearing this evening and overnight. Winds will be generally from
the west. Wind speeds will be in the 15 to 25 kts range early on,
but after 3Z speeds go down to 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As today`s upper trough and associated Pacific front goes away,
skies will start clearing out overnight. The airmass behind this
system is colder which will result in colder temperatures over the
next few days, especially tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be
below normal the next few days. On the wake of this system, breezy
winds will continue, but generally below critical thresholds.
Minimum relative humidity will be in the mid to upper teens in the
lowlands, while the mountains remain in the 20s. Drier condition are
expected in the eastern lowland zones on Thursday, but lighter winds
will inhibit the chance to meet red flag criteria.

The next upper system arrives late on Thursday and its effects will
be felt through early Saturday. It will be similar to today`s
system focusing on the Gila Region through most of the event.
Light lowland snow is possible Friday night, however the
mountains are expected to see greater amounts of snow with it.

Ventilation rates will be good tomorrow, and then are expected to
improve to the very good and excellent categories through the end of
the week. In the weekend, they are expected to deteriorate to the
poor category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 29  51  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           27  49  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              25  49  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              21  48  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              11  28  16  37 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   23  48  23  53 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City             18  40  22  45 /  10   0   0  40
Deming                  20  48  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               20  46  22  51 /   0   0   0  30
West El Paso Metro      30  50  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               23  53  24  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            28  55  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              24  46  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  28  52  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            27  49  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          27  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           20  49  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   22  50  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                24  51  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               22  49  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 14  40  21  50 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero               13  36  19  45 /  20   0   0   0
Timberon                12  36  17  45 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 11  42  13  45 /   0   0   0  30
Hillsboro               18  48  21  52 /   0   0   0  20
Spaceport               20  49  21  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            10  37  15  45 /  10   0   0  40
Hurley                  17  42  19  48 /  10   0   0  30
Cliff                   15  44  16  50 /  10   0   0  50
Mule Creek              19  40  21  45 /  10   0   0  70
Faywood                 20  44  22  48 /   0   0   0  20
Animas                  22  48  23  53 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                 18  48  19  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          21  51  23  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              23  45  25  48 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30-Dennhardt/29-Crespo



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