Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191123
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
523 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
More heat to greet the Borderland today as lowlands across the
region warm to around 100 degrees yet again this afternoon. Today
we begin to see modest gains in moisture across southern and
eastern portions of the region with some additional clouds and a
few storms east of the Rio Grande and across some of the southern
desert locations. As the week progresses we should see more
moisture move in to give the rest of Far West Texas and Southern
New Mexico daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. By late
week the bulk of the storms should be west of the Rio Grande. With
the moisture increases we should begin to see daily high drop
below the triple-digits by Wednesday. Next weekend shows potential
for another period of warming and drying.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
No real changes from the forecast and messages we`ve been shipping
out over the course of the last several forecast cycles. The
expected transition from a dry westerly flow pattern to a more
southerly monsoonal pattern looks to be underway. As the flat
ridge aloft to our south begins to build north, mid and upper
winds will begin to back...becoming more southerly. This
trajectory will advect moisture back in out of N MX. At low
levels, gulf moisture is staged to our east and will begin to seep
into our eastern forecast zones today as low-level winds turn
southeasterly. Today is expected to bring only modest moisture
gains. As a result we think storms will still be few and limited
to the SACs, Hudspeth co. and the southern desert areas. Another
hot day in store as we continue with 100+ lowland highs.

Tuesday we see continued moisture increases as we keep the more
southerly flow pattern on the west side of the upper ridge
translating north to our east. Models show some drying over the
eastern areas a deeper moisture shifts to central and western
areas. Thus we will add afternoon and evening POPs to all zones,
with bigger numbers west. Wednesday through Friday we keep the
moisture trapped over the region as broad-scale high pressure
expands across the area. Thus with orographic and thermal lift we
should see daily rounds of storms across the region. Coverage will
likely stay scattered over the area mountains and isolated over
the lowlands. With more moisture, clouds, and storms in play we
expect temperatures to drop but remain seasonably warm.

Going into next weekend the GFS and EC models show the upper ridge
making a quick jog to our WNW over NV. This will place our region
under a northerly flow pattern at mid and upper levels. The result
should be to shove a fair amount of the moisture in place back to
our south with drier continental air filtering in from the north.
Thus we see a sharp downward trend in rain and storm occurrence
for Saturday, and more so for Sunday and Monday. With this pattern
it appears that temperatures will rebound to well above normal
with 100 degree desert highs back in play to end the weekend and
start the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/12Z-20/12Z...
VFR conditions expected through forecast period. Slight increases
in moisture today will likely result in more afternoon cloud
buildups and a few additional storms. Skies generally BCMG
FEW090 SCT140 BKN220-250. A few CBs possible in vcty of any
terminal. Winds W-NW west of the Rio Grande...BCMG E for areas
east of the Rio Grande. Speeds in the 5-15KT range. FEW TSTMs
possible aft 22Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will bring a reversal of the dry conditions that we saw over
the weekend with a slow but steady return of moisture beginning
today and more so Tuesday. Easterly winds, advecting marginal
Gulf moisture, will make it to the eastern portion of our
forecast area Today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms east
of the Rio Grande possible. Rain chances expand to all zones
Tuesday through Friday, with temperatures cooling slightly back to
near normal. Min RH will improve to 20% lowlands/30% mountains
over the week, with no impactful surface winds except due to
thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                102  76 100  76 /   0  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca           98  70  96  70 /  10  20   0   0
Las Cruces              98  72  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo             101  72 100  70 /   0  10  20  10
Cloudcroft              78  56  77  54 /  20  20  30  30
Truth or Consequences   98  72  98  70 /   0   0  20  30
Silver City             92  67  94  66 /   0   0  30  20
Deming                  99  71 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               98  72 101  71 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro     102  77 101  77 /   0  10   0   0
Dell City              104  73 101  72 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock           106  77 103  77 /   0  20   0   0
Loma Linda              96  73  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
Fabens                 102  76 100  76 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Teresa           100  73  99  74 /   0  10   0   0
White Sands HQ         100  76  99  75 /   0  10  10  10
Jornada Range           99  71  98  70 /   0   0  10   0
Hatch                  100  71 100  70 /   0   0  20  20
Columbus                99  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               99  74  98  72 /   0  10  10  10
Mayhill                 88  61  85  58 /  20  10  30  20
Mescalero               89  59  86  57 /  20  10  30  30
Timberon                86  59  84  57 /  20  10  20  20
Winston                 91  60  90  59 /   0   0  30  30
Hillsboro               98  69  97  67 /   0   0  20  30
Spaceport               98  70  98  68 /   0   0  20  20
Lake Roberts            92  59  92  59 /   0   0  30  30
Hurley                  94  67  96  66 /   0   0  20  20
Cliff                  100  65 102  65 /   0   0  20  20
Mule Creek              94  67  97  68 /   0   0  20  20
Faywood                 95  69  95  68 /   0   0  20  30
Animas                  98  71 102  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                 98  70 101  70 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells          97  69  99  71 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale              92  68  95  69 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-BIRD


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