Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 181018
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
418 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure aloft will sweep across the Borderland
this afternoon, bringing gusty and dusty winds and a chance of
light rain to much of the area. Dry upper flow with seasonable
temperatures will continue Saturday and Sunday, before a cool
front drops down from the north Sunday night and cools our Monday
and Tuesday to a bit below normal. Clear skies will persist
through most of next week with seasonable temperatures through
Thursday, before another cold front moves in to chill next weekend
down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like a nice autumn pattern for the most part as progressive
zonal flow dominates the scene through the forecast period. But
first we have to pay for the nice weather with a bit more dismal
scene today. Large upper trough currently over Nevada and southern
California will continue to sweep east today. Ahead of it, a weak
short wave is currently moving across the CWA, though with little
or no effect. Main upper trough looks to be timed well for wind
development, and with the help of decent lee cyclogenesis this
afternoon over SE Colorado, should kick winds up into windy
category. Looking at upper dynamics, upper jet streak doesn`t
look favorable, but strong PVA and cooling aloft should allow
moisture present to develop into a brief period of clouds this
afternoon as surface front pushes through. Allowed a brief
progression of clouds/light showers-sprinkles to move east through
the CWA with the front. Front and upper trough should be east of
the area by 00-03Z this evening. Not sure about how much blowing
dust can be produced-Lordsburg Playa has looked pretty wet
recently-but did put BD in grids for Lordsburg to Deming area.

Clearing tonight and Saturday post frontal, but temps should be a
few degrees cooler on Saturday. Sunday will recover back to
seasonable temperatures, before we deal with our next system--
which is a developing frontal system off the Pac Northwest coast.
It will mostly ride up across the central/northern Rockies, but
short wave dropping down to the area Sunday night will drag the
front southward across the area. Front will reach the northern
zones around sunset Sunday and then south of the area by sunrise
Monday. Front will be dry but should drop our high temps Monday to
several degrees below normal.

Dry westerlies continue Tuesday through Thursday with temps back
to near or slightly above normal. Models have mostly backed off
upper low carving down toward the Sacs, but did leave a few more
clouds and ghost POPs in the grids Thursday night for the Sacs.
Strong back door cold front still on schedule for Thursday night,
but still just out of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/12Z-19/12Z...
VFR conditions through the period. Skies FEW-SCT100-150. Winds
starting at S/SW AOB 10 knots, becoming 220-25010G20KT by 15Z and
220-25025G35 (perhaps stronger at times) at all terminals by 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level trough passing north of the forecast area will bring
gusty winds tomorrow through the day, decreasing gradually after
dark. Min RH stay in the upper teens to mid-20s Friday, keeping the
area out of critical fire conditions. Vent rates will range from very
good to excellent on Friday.

Calmer winds Saturday, however another upper level trough moves in
Sunday night bringing breezy conditions back to the region. Min RH
on Sunday drops into the lower teens, and stay there as we move into
early next week. Temperatures remain around normal through the
weekend. Max vent rates drop to poor to fair on Saturday and will
rise to very good on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 80  55  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           76  48  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              79  45  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              79  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              60  33  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   79  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             69  44  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  77  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               76  45  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      80  53  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               81  48  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            82  53  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              75  52  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  81  53  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            79  48  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          79  51  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           78  47  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   79  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                79  48  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               78  48  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 68  39  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               70  36  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                68  37  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 73  33  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               76  44  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               78  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            72  36  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  72  43  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   72  32  73  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              72  34  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 74  44  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  79  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 77  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          77  45  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              73  47  73  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Dhuyvetter


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