Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 301154
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
754 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021


.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 446 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
The short term period will be characterized by a strong ridge to the
west of the area, positioned over the south-central CONUS. Due to
the influence of the ridge, temperatures have continued to climb
each day, and are expected to reach into the mid 90s in portions of
far north Georgia and as high as 100 in central Georgia. These
afternoon temperatures will be as much as 6-10 degrees above
climatological normals. In addition to the hot temperatures, good
low level moisture will have dewpoints reaching as high as the low
70s across the majority of the area today. While there is the
potential for mixing of dewpoints in the upper 60s in portions of
central Georgia, heat index values are nonetheless anticipated to
exceed 105 degrees across the forecast area with the exception of
the higher elevations of far north Georgia. With this in mind, a
heat advisory has been issued once again for north and central
Georgia with the exception of the far northeast, and will remain in
effect until 8 PM EDT.

Deeper moisture on the western periphery of the ridge could push
into the Tennessee Valley and into north Georgia during the
afternoon and evening hours. As a result, some scattered
thunderstorms are possible across the far northern tier, with some
isolated storms possible as far south as the Atlanta metro area.
While there is not an organized threat for severe weather, high
instability values from the hot conditions could allow for the
development of some strong storms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts. Precipitation chances are expected to diminish shortly after
sunset. Otherwise, skies are expected to be mostly clear to partly
cloudy today. Broken upper level clouds are possible Friday night as
the axis of upper moisture pushes south, but should scatter out by
sunrise on Saturday.

Abnormally hot conditions are expected once again on Saturday, with
highs once again reaching into the mid 90s to as high as 100. More
low level moisture is also anticipated on Saturday, particularly
across central Georgia, which could see dewpoints reaching into the
mid 70s. The combination of these factors will lead to heat index
values in excess of 110 in portions of central and east Georgia -
our hottest apparent temperatures of the summer thus far. As a
result, an Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from 11 AM until 8 PM
Saturday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection will
also be possible across north and central Georgia on Saturday
afternoon.

King

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Sunday the pattern aloft begins to change as the upper level high to
our west contracts and shifts westward and a trough aloft digs
across the eastern CONUS. The result will be northwest flow aloft
through the remainder of the long term.

Sunday evening as the aforementioned upper level trough digs a cold
front will be sent southward through the region. Ahead of the
advancing surface front Sunday will be hot and humid again.
Compressional heating ahead of the boundary coupled with high
dewpoints will result in heat index values of 105F to 110F across
the southcentral portions of the CWA. Late Sunday as the front
progresses further south scattered showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop along and ahead of it. The front will then
stall and become stationary across the southern portions of the FA
through mid week. With the front lingering across the area and
impulses moving through the upper flow those areas that find
themselves south of the front will have continued rain shower and
thunderstorms chances.

Temperature wise Monday we will finally start to see relief from the
advisory level heat. Highs Monday through Wednesday will peak in the
upper 80s with lows dropping into the upper 60s and dewpoints in the
60s to 70s.

28

CLIMATE...

Records for 07-30

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 2014
                1915                                1925
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     59 2014
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     63 2014
                1986                                1920
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     59 2014
                                        2008
                                        1958

Records for 07-31

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1999     71 1916     77 2015     59 1936
   KATL      99 1999     62 1936     78 1915     59 1936
                1986                    1896
                1980
   KCSG     104 1986     74 1997     78 2011     64 1936
                            1981        2010
                                        1901
   KMCN     105 1986     68 1936     77 1931     61 1936

Records for 08-01

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1921     71 1981     75 2020     56 1997
                                        1947
   KATL      99 1980     70 1936     76 2011     58 1997
                                        2010
                                        2004
   KCSG     103 1986     78 1984     79 1999     62 1997
                1915        1981
   KMCN     105 1986     77 1981     78 1915     60 2017
                                                    1997


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Patchy fog is ongoing across portions of north and central
Georgia, but no visibility restrictions have been observed at any
TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected to persist through the
period, with a SCT cu field between 040-050 developing by 15Z and
persisting through the afternoon. A complex of storms in east
Tennessee is moving southeastward in the flow, but is diminishing
as it encounters drier air in far north Georgia. Lingering
SHRA/TSRA associated with this system could still warrant mention
of VCSH at the northern TAF sites by 17Z. Winds are expected to be
NW throughout the day today at 4-9 kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA potential.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          99  74  96  76 /  20  10  20   5
Atlanta         97  75  96  77 /  20  10  30  10
Blairsville     90  66  89  68 /  40  20  20  20
Cartersville    97  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
Columbus       100  77  99  77 /  10   5  30  10
Gainesville     95  73  94  75 /  30  10  20  10
Macon          101  76  99  77 /  10  10  40  10
Rome            98  74  96  75 /  30  20  20  10
Peachtree City  98  74  96  76 /  10  10  30  10
Vidalia         99  79  98  79 /  10  10  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...
Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...
Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
Crawford...Crisp...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...
Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Glascock...
Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...
Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...
Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...
Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...
Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...
Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...
Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...
Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...
Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Harris...Houston...
Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...
Marion...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...
Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Upson...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...
Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...King


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