Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 160542
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1242 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1009 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019/

UPDATE...
Just tweaked pops for the overnight. Main area of showers
affecting n and portions of central GA.

BDL

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 600 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Hope everyone said their goodbyes yesterday, because we won`t be
seeing the sun for a while. Wet and gloomy pattern in place for the
next week or more, starting today as surface low feature develops
over the region and tracks over the state into early Saturday. Have
continued likely to categorical pops over far north Georgia late
this evening through Saturday morning, then quickly taper them off
to slight chance Saturday. Instability remains limited with this,
and no thunder has been mentioned at this time. Rainfall amounts of
0.75-1.00 inches are possible north of the Atlanta metro area, with
generally 0.50 inches or less south. This event will act to prime
the area for the additional waves of rainfall expected next week.

By Saturday morning, still have kept some low rain chances in the
grids, but expect the deepest moisture to exit with the low pressure
system as it moves over the Carolinas. Early Sunday morning, deep
moisture returns to the area with another system, increasing rain
chances.

Temperatures will be warmer than normal through the short term with
persistent cloud cover and rain impacting the area.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

All-in-all, basic story-line through the extended forecast period
remains unchanged as an extended period of wet, unsettled weather
continues to appear likely. Looking at the potential for rainfall
totals of several inches by the end of next week with the highest
amounts across north Georgia, tapering off some to the south and
east.

All of this continues to be handled well by the current Long-Term
forecast grids so minimal changes have been made with this cycle.

20

Previous LONG TERM Discussion /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

You`re gonna need a bigger boat. This is the theme of the long
term portion as we follow up the Saturday system with what looks
to be a series of moderate rain producers. The first of these will
be a fairly light event as we get some isentropic wedge induced
precip Sunday morning. Wedge holds through Sunday afternoon, but
we get some mid level energy to help things along and actually
develops a weak low pressure system over Alabama per the GFS. The
potential exists to see 1.5 to 2 inches from this event which will
likely add to already emerging flood concerns across the area.

Front stalls just south of the region but does give us a brief
respite from the rain through Monday afternoon. This quickly
changes though as mid level trough develops over the 4 corners
region, setting up a classic long fetch and deep SW flow event for
the local area. With embedded shortwaves traversing the trough,
should see weak low pressure develop along the Gulf coast Tue.
With high pressure north of the region, another long period of
isentropic ascent will prevail with generally an inch of rain
every 6 hours through Tue evening. Only saving grace may be warm
front lifting north of the area briefly but ECMWF keeps far north
in the high rain chances.

Front settles back in over the region through weeks end and
although moisture will be high, ultimately will depend upon
individual shortwaves to determine how much local area actually
gets. Though the entire short term and long term periods, GFS
indicates 6 to 10 inches of rain for areas north of I20. Moderate
flooding would almost certainly exist under this scenario with
potential for major depending on how convective activity can
ultimately become.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Mixed bag of IFR/LIFR cigs with scattered IFR/MVFR vsbys,
associated with scattered -shra/-ra across the area. Precip should
taper and cigs should improve to VFR later today around 16-18z
before IFR cigs return to the area at the end of the taf cycle
around 06-08Z. Wind are currently S/SSW at less than 10-12kts but
will become more W early Saturday, then NW around 14-16Z today.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements. Low to medium confidence on
lower cigs and vsbys.

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  45  54  47 /  50  40  70  90
Atlanta         64  48  62  50 /  30  40  70  90
Blairsville     58  41  54  43 /  50  40  80  80
Cartersville    60  46  60  48 /  30  40  80  80
Columbus        72  55  72  58 /  30  30  50  70
Gainesville     63  44  53  47 /  50  40  80  90
Macon           72  52  71  56 /  30  20  50  70
Rome            59  45  63  47 /  20  50  80  80
Peachtree City  67  49  66  52 /  30  30  70  90
Vidalia         75  55  75  60 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...Reaves


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