Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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261
FXUS62 KFFC 221840
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
240 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Main concern continues to be a slow moving cold front across the
OH to lower/mid MS valleys that is forecast to move across the area
on Tuesday and possibly into far NW GA late tonight. The front will
likely stall over se GA Tuesday night. An axis of deep moisture is
associated along with an upper level trough/short wave.

The airmass out ahead of the front across TN into far n GA is fairly
unstable and there is the possibility for isolated severe storms
across far n GA, mostly likely this evening, as per the SPC Day 1
outlook, with damaging winds as the main hazard along with frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Rain and storm chances will increase tonight and Tuesday across the
area from N to S as the front and deep moisture approach. A few strong
thunderstorms can be expected on Tuesday and Isolated severe storms
can not be ruled out.

Rain chances will decrease and end for n and portions of W GA late Tuesday
into Tuesday night.

Forecast low temperatures are running about 2-7 degrees above normal
across the area tonight and then around normal to as cool as 7 degrees below
normal Tuesday night as a cooler airmass moves over the area, especially
N GA.
Forecast high temperatures are running near to about 12 degrees below
normal on Tuesday.

Overall confidence is medium to high.

BDL


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

A cooler and drier airmass will be setting up over the area behind
the cold frontal boundary as it pushes from northwest to southeast.
Some lingering chance PoPs will be in place as the period begins on
Wednesday morning, but will diminish as the front moves southward
out of the forecast area by Wednesday evening. Wednesday night and
Thursday are then not anticipated to see any precipitation after the
front clears the area entirely, with the only exception being some
slight chance PoPs in the far southeastern corner of the forecast
area. Temperatures will be consistently cooler than average behind
the frontal boundary, with high temperatures mainly in the low to
mid 80s on Wednesday and mid to upper 80s on throughout the
remainder of the week. Low temperatures will similarly be mainly in
the 60s, with even some upper 50s in the higher elevations of
northeast Georgia.

Some model disagreement still exists with respect to the
redevelopment of weak troughing and associated moisture return to
the area. While the latest ECMWF keeps the area mostly dry through
the early parts of next week, it is starting to come into better
agreement with the GFS, which indicates a return of deeper
moisture and precipitation across central Georgia starting Friday
and gradually spreading northward on Saturday and Sunday. Have
continued to lean closer to the more consistent GFS solution, with
slight to low-end chance PoPs on Friday through the remainder of
the period. However, will continue to monitor these trends as the
end of the week approaches.

King

&&


AVIATION... 18Z Update... Increasing potential for MVFR/IFR
ceilings and rain/storm chances later tonight and Tuesday for the
northern taf sites. Otherwise VFR expected with showers/storms
possible around ATL/AHN this afternoon/evening. Surface winds S-W
10 kts or less becoming W-N late Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence for thunderstorm chances at the airfield
 this afternoon.
Medium confidence for clouds/ceilings.
High confidence for winds and vsbys.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  83  65  86 /  40  80  30  10
Atlanta         72  80  66  84 /  40  70  20  10
Blairsville     66  76  56  78 /  70  70  20  10
Cartersville    71  81  63  85 /  60  70  20   5
Columbus        73  84  68  86 /  30  80  40  20
Gainesville     71  79  63  83 /  50  80  20  10
Macon           73  87  68  86 /  20  80  70  30
Rome            70  82  62  86 /  60  60  10   5
Peachtree City  72  81  65  85 /  30  80  30  10
Vidalia         73  92  71  83 /  30  70  80  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...BDL



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