Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 181147
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
747 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019


.UPDATE...

12z Aviation update below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 446 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Main focus is on severe potential with strong frontal system ahead
of an amplifying upper cutoff low set to push across the area late
tonight into Friday. Still some timing inconsistencies in hi-res
solutions though likely will have the showers and storms push into
the NW near midnight tonight, then north GA and west central GA by 8
AM, and finally east central GA the rest of Friday morning. While
progged CAPE looks a bit more limited (near 500-1000 J/kg) than the
last more widespread event given more unfavorable timing in the
overnight/morning, the shear remains impressive both in the bulk
deep layer and low level helicity. Still thinking main threats will
be with damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes. SPC outlooks do
have Slight to Marginal Risks tonight and now an expanded Enhanced
Risk for east central GA before the system pushes eastward Friday
morning. QPF looks to be mainly 1-1.5 inches with locally higher so
some isolated flooding is possible as well especially with any storm
training.

Even though the cold front pushes east of the area by midday Friday,
the wrap around moisture and upper cutoff dynamics will allow for
continued showers across the northern majority of the area with
temps dropping through the day (much of north GA falling to the low
to mid 50s by afternoon).

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

The extended forecast begins with the frontal boundary from the
short term having moved east of the state. We will still see some
showers across the area as we will be under the wrap around
moisture from the back side of the main low pressure center. Just
expecting showers as there is very little instability across the
area and a cooler airmass will also begin filtering into the area.
Will see Sat morning in the 40s with highs Sat only getting up
into the 50s and 60s across the CWA. Temps begin to rebound Sunday
with highs in the 70s and temps get back into the 80s by Mon. High
pressure also builds back in for Sun/Monday keeping things dry at
least through the middle of next week.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Initial VFR conditions and some spotty MVFR cigs with some cirrus
then cu field during the day in the 4-6 kft range. Widespread MVFR
cigs building in late period after 06z Friday for west sites
(slightly later for east) with SHRA and TSRA (some storms could
be strong to severe). Winds SSE 6-8 kts near KATL then SSW from
17-21z at 10-12 kts gusting 18 kts. Back to SSE after 21z with
slightly higher magnitudes ahead of frontal system. Expecting
shift back on west side with front after about 10-12z Friday and
lingering showers.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on precip timing/coverage tonight and Friday morning.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  65  70  45 /  10  80  90  30
Atlanta         79  65  67  44 /  10 100  80  30
Blairsville     74  60  63  40 /  20  90  80  50
Cartersville    80  62  66  43 /  10 100  80  40
Columbus        82  66  68  45 /  10 100  80  20
Gainesville     78  63  66  43 /  10  90  90  30
Macon           82  68  70  45 /  10  80  90  20
Rome            80  61  64  43 /  10 100  70  40
Peachtree City  80  65  67  43 /  10 100  80  30
Vidalia         84  66  75  50 /  10  40  90  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Baker



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