Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 152346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
646 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Mid/upper level trough axis currently extends across eastern ND
with mid level circulation apparent on satellite. Several bands
of showers/storms continue to rotate across our CWA. Deformation
zone appears to linger near the International border, so while
loss of daytime heating/stabilization of air mass will support
decreasing coverage to our south, we may continue to see potential
for showers lingering further north and northeast. Adjustments
made to account for current trends in radar, otherwise generally
trends in PoPs beyond tonight were reasonable and left in place.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

A look at the latest radar imagery shows several north-south broad
areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms. One area, along much of
the Red River Valley, will continue to propagate generally eastward
bringing periods of showers to MN lakes country through the evening.
Further west, another area of showers and storms has developed along
an inverted surface trough across central ND and propagates slowly
east. This will be the focus for potential severe weather this
afternoon and early this evening across southern ND and northern SD.
Instability and deep layer shear are not impressive but are enough
to combine with strong upper level forcing in close proximity to the
upper level low and an inverted surface trough and a secondary
differential heating boundary near the James River basin to support
a continued severe weather threat in the lower Devil Lake basin and
southeast ND early this evening. Of additional note is a high
non-supercell tornado parameter in the vicinity of these
boundaries across central ND and Eddy, Nelson, Griggs, and Barnes
counties, indicating strong potential for brief landspout
tornadoes to develop with showers and thunderstorms passing
through the region.

Expect rain activity to taper off this evening from west to east as
the aforementioned activity progresses east through the region.
Behind this activity, a brief period of mostly dry weather can be
expected overnight for much of the region. The exception to this is
chances for rain showers lingering north of US Hwy 2, in particular
for the Devils Lake basin in close proximity to the nearly stacked
upper level low eastern SK/western MB overnight. Once again, periods
of rain chances persist through the day Sunday and into Sunday
night. Close proximity of the upper low and cloudy skies will mean
cooler weather persisting with another day of high temperatures only
reaching the 60s on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

As an upper low passes slowly eastward through MB into northern MN
on Monday, the region will remain in an active, wetter, and cooler
than average pattern for the start of the work week. Chances for
periods of rain persist through Sunday night and Monday due to this
active upper level pattern with weak shortwave disturbances aloft.
This upper low weakens and is swept up into a more zonal flow regime
by Tuesday, allowing for surface high pressure to begin to take
hold. Expect a relatively drier period for Monday night through
Tuesday night but cannot rule out rain chances completely as another
trough aloft swings through in this timeframe.

For Wednesday through Friday, warmer, closer to normal temperatures
reemerge and active wetter weather pattern develops as a strongly
forced system progresses into the Northern Plains from the Canadian
Rockies. The deterministic model runs have poor agreement in the
timing and details at this point, so will continue to monitor for
potential impacts.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Periods of showers will rotate through the region mainly this
evening transitioning mainly north of Highway 2 by Sunday morning.
Winds remain light and easterly becoming north-northwest late in
the TAF period in northeast ND.

1000-1500 FT AGL stratus has developed across parts of the Devils
Lake area extending further south. While lowest cigs may be
associated with showers/storms there is good low level moisture
advection with easterly flow supportive of this stratus possibly
lingering or expanding overnight tonight and lingering into
Sunday. Models actually show potential for IFR conditions Sunday
morning mainly at KDVL, however this may be overdone (will monitor
trends). MVFR was favored, with mention at other terminals
introduced and lingering through much of Sunday TAF period.




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