Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 212050
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
350 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Stacked low pressure system continues to bring wind and rain to
the region. Northerly winds on the backside of the system will
persist through the period. Peaking this afternoon into the
evening with sustained values around 30mph and gusts to 55mph.
Rainfall this evening and overnight will range from little to none
across Devils Lake basin with another 0.10 to 0.20 of an inch in
the valley to an inch across the Minnesota Lakes country. Precip
on the western edge may mix with a few wet snow flakes as column
cools on the backside of the precip shield. Tuesday winds will be
less but still in the gusting to 40mph in the morning and then
gradually begin to wind down. Wind advisory is in effect until
1pm Tuesday for the valley proper as a result.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Wednesday through Monday

A trough extending out of the Hudson Bay area will continue to bring
a chance of a wintry mix Wed morning before northwest flow aloft
sets up over the Northern Plains by Wednesday evening.  This will
bring a cool end to the week, with daytime highs in the 30s and 40s
before climbing into the 50s for the weekend.  Longterm models do
however begin to diverge with troughing over the plains by 12Z
Thursday, as the ECMWF shows a closed upper low move into srn plains
near the end of the week while GFS continues a much less amplified
LWT. This decreases confidence for the weekend transition to low
POPs Sun and Mon as ridging increases over the Canadian Rockies.  At
the time, no strong signal for precip during any given period in the
long term, but some activity plausible in the Sat night to Mon
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Gusts over 30kts for all TAF sites on north winds. VFR and MVFR
CIGs lowering into MVFR for all sites overnight as another round
of rain moves into the area. SCT CIGs possible at DVL by morning.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Flooding continues on from record rainfall over the past 30 days.
Sheyenne River basin has seen less rainfall over the past 24hours
than previously forecast and depending on how much snowmelt with
rainfall combined gets into Baldhill Dam reductions in the
forecast will be possible over the next 24hours. With respect to
the mainstem Red River the crest of the fall flood wave is
approaching the northern valley with Drayton and Pembina seeing
rises into moderate flood stages. Flooding has ended at Crookston.

Rainfall this evening and overnight tonight will not impact area
river with significant rises as the highest amounts will be east
of the Red River basin.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ008-016-027>030-038-
     039-049-052-053.

MN...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>004-007-027>032-
     040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...JK


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