Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 181004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
304 AM MST Mon Feb 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system is bringing significant accumulating
snow to much of the region this morning. This storm system will
continue to affect the area through this evening. Snow showers
will linger into Tuesday mainly across the higher terrain. A
stronger winter storm will bring widespread heavy snow to
northern Arizona Thursday into Friday.


.DISCUSSION...Widespread moderate to heavy snow is falling across
northern Arizona this morning. We have received reports overnight
of several inches of snow in the Flagstaff area and across
northeast Arizona. Road conditions are dangerous with low
visibility and snow covered roadways creating slick spots. Travel
should be delayed if at all possible this morning.

Snow shower activity will persist through much of the day and
likely become enhanced again later this afternoon and evening as
the comma head associated with the upper low crosses the area.
Several inches of additional accumulation are expected through
the day with the highest amounts falling this morning. Winter
Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for
the area through late tonight.

Tuesday will feature continued snow shower activity especially
along the higher terrain, but additional accumulations are
expected to be light. Decreasing cloud cover, fresh snow pack, and
lighter winds will set the stage for very cold temperatures
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Below zero temperatures are
expected for several high terrain locations. The daylight hours
on Wednesday will be dry, but cloud cover will be increasing in
advance of a strong storm system set to impact the region
beginning Wednesday night.

Model guidance is in considerable agreement on another very cold
upper level low dropping into Nevada and California on Thursday.
This classic pattern is expected to produce a major winter storm
across northern Arizona. Widespread heavy snowfall is anticipated
Thursday into Friday with snow levels of 3,000-4,500 feet during
the height of the storm Thursday afternoon/night. This system will
likely have severe impacts across the region with a 24-36 hour
period of significant precipitation. At this time, general
snowfall amounts of 1-2 feet are anticipated on the Mogollon Rim
with locally higher amounts possible. Several inches of snow can
also be expected in areas above 3,000 feet. If you have travel
plans during this period, it may be best to start considering

Much quieter weather returns for the weekend with dry, but
continued cold conditions.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect widespread snow
with MVFR and IFR across northern Arizona through 06z Tues.
Precipitation coverage should slowly decrease northwest to southeast
after 06Z Tues, low clouds to stick around. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A winter storm will grip the northland through
this evening. Expect significant snow accumulations above 4000 feet,
and snow on the valley floors. Cold temperatures will continue on
Tuesday, with little or no precipitation.

Wednesday through Friday...Cold temperatures will continue on
Wednesday, with dry conditions. A stronger winter storm expected on
Thursday and Friday.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Storm Warning until 11
PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004-007-008-015>018-038.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ005-




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