Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 222137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
237 PM MST Thu Aug 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Generally dry and hotter than normal daytime
temperatures are expected for most of northern Arizona through
early next week.


Breezy southwesterly winds have developed this afternoon with
gusts mainly in the 20 to 30 mph range. Daytime temps will drop
a bit late this week, but should remain slightly above normal for
most locations. We have chances for showers and thunderstorms
Friday and Saturday across the Eastern Mogollon Rim, White
Mountains, and northern Gila County, but the abnormally dry
conditions will persist elsewhere.

Dry and hotter weather is forecast for early next week, with the
potential for near-record high temps Monday and Tuesday.

In all, confidence remains rather low for productive monsoonal
flow during the 7-day forecast, but we are re-introducing chances
of precip by the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Smoke from area wildfires will be present in
spots, but impacts will be minimal. Southwest winds 10-20 kts with
gusts 25 kts through sunset then becoming less than 10 kts
overnight. Another round of gusty afternoon southwest winds on
Friday with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms along and
south of a KSOW-KSJN line. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...For Friday and Saturday, generally dry and cooler
with breezy afternoon winds at times. Any threat for showers and
thunderstorms will be confined to the eastern Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains area.

Sunday through Tuesday...Generally dry weather area wide with
warming daytime temperatures. Near record highs are forecast by
Tuesday. On Tuesday the chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms is expected to return to the White Mountains area.






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