Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 210939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
239 AM MST Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy and cooler weather is expected today with a
slight chance of showers or thunderstorms near the Utah border.
Unsettled weather with a chance of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms lingers Monday through Tuesday. Dry and warmer
conditions return starting Wednesday.


.DISCUSSION...Breezy southwest winds have persisted overnight for
most areas, acting to keep overnight lows mild compared to
seasonal averages with 40s and 50s at 2 AM. The initial shortwave
ahead of the main area of low pressure has passed north of the
state after bringing a few showers Saturday afternoon and

Today - low pressure will move into southern Nevada and push a
dry cold front into our area by late afternoon and overnight.
Another day of gusty S-SW winds is in store, with afternoon gusts
of 25 to 35 mph. Daytime temperatures will be an additional 3-6
degrees cooler today, which will be near average for late April.
Latest models are indicating some shower or thunderstorm activity
late this afternoon and evening near the front, mainly in
northern Coconino County including the Grand Canyon region. Some
low rain chances have been added to the forecast.

Monday through Tuesday night - the low pressure system is
forecast to close off over Arizona, and then move slowly from west
to east across the state. Daytime temperatures will remain near
average for late April. Cooler mid level temperatures associated
with the low will combine with increasing mid level moisture and
produce instability and a chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms through the period. The best chance of rain Monday
will be along and north of a line from Prescott to Flagstaff to
four corners. On Tuesday, the best rain chances shift south of
this line. Most areas that get rain will see only light amounts
(<-0.10") though some localized spots could see 0.25" or so in a
heavier shower.

Wednesday through Saturday - model guidance is in good agreement
that high pressure will move back over the state. Dry conditions
expected with temperatures warming back above seasonal average.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hrs. SW winds increase after 15Z Sun to around 10-15G20-25 kts.
Strongest SW winds at 15-25g25-35 kts NE of higher terrain and SE of
a KINW-KRQE line. Winds decrease after 02z Mon. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and mostly dry conditions continue Sunday with
afternoon southwest breezes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible along the Kaibab Plateau. Better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms are possible Monday mainly for Coconino and northern
Apache counties with cooling temperatures.

.Tuesday through Thursday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms
chances return Tuesday mainly along the high terrain. Warm and
dry conditions return Wednesday with westerly breezes.






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