Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 152236

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
336 PM MST Tue Oct 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Expect seasonably warm and dry weather for the work
week. Light winds are expected through Wednesday. Gusty winds
will return Thursday into the weekend as temperatures become


.DISCUSSION...Visible satellite reveals mostly clear conditions
over northern Arizona, with several prescribed fires ongoing along
the Mogollon Rim. Expect mostly clear skies with some easterly
breezes in the lower deserts overnight.

Expect increasing clouds by Wednesday afternoon ahead of the next
shortwave trough. This disturbance will bring a noticeable
increase in wind speeds on Thursday, as well as a minimal chance
of showers to mainly the Kaibab Plateau. Expect cooler
temperatures Friday and Saturday, as well as breezy west winds.

Another shortwave trough is expected to drop from the Pacific
Northwest into the central/southern Rockies on Sunday, which may
bring temperatures down to slightly below normal values as well
as breezy northwest winds. There is some uncertainty in
temperatures early next week as Arizona will be located along the
eastern side of a ridge open to influence from shortwave troughs,
however at this time conditions are expected to remain mainly dry.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will continue with
generally light winds over the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Relatively light winds are forecast for Wednesday,
while stronger and gusty southwest winds are forecast for
Thursday. Above normal temperatures will continue, with a slight
chance of showers over the Kaibab Plateau on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Westerly breezes are expected Friday and
Saturday, becoming northwesterly on Sunday. Temperatures will cool
through the period, becoming slightly below normal by Sunday.
Mainly dry conditions are forecast.






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