Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 212023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
323 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Skies have cleared for much of the area with just a few cirrus and
mid level clouds around the area. The surface low and cold front
have started to move into the area, but at this time, the front is
just into the northwest part of the area.

Expect that the front will continue to move into the area this
afternoon and tonight. By this evening, the front should be in the
central part of the forecast area, and it should be mainly through
the area during the overnight hours. There is pretty good agreement
in the short term models that there will be some development along
or behind the front mainly during the evening hours. The best chance
for development is probably between 6 and 8 pm this evening. That
coincides with some of the best MUCAPE, around 3000 j/kg, and the
least CIN. There could be a few strong to severe storms, but expect
that hail with be the biggest threat.

Later tonight, the CAPE falls off after sunset and as the front
moves out, the upper level wave will keep a few showers and
thunderstorms, but expect them to be further to the north near the
upper level wave. Thunderstorms should diminish and leave just
showers toward morning. Still have showers in the north through the
day on Monday, but not sure how much there will be.

After the front moves through, there will be increasing low clouds
and north winds will increase and become breezy. The low clouds are
expected to continue into the day on Monday. The clouds and cold
advection will keep temperatures quite a bit cooler than today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

A surface high will move into the area Monday night and and Tuesday.
This will slowly clear the clouds out and allow for some sunshine.
Expect Tuesday to be a little warmer than Monday. Wednesday and
Thursday should continue to be dry. There will be a little warm
advection and with some sunshine, expect there to be warmer
temperatures again.

The next upper level wave will affect the area Thursday night
through Friday night. There could be a few showers and even some
thunderstorms Friday night. On Saturday the cold front finally moves
through the area and temperatures warm up a little more just ahead
of the front. Then Saturday night into Sunday there will be some
small chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday night
with showers possible Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Clouds will clear out for much of the afternoon, but as evening
comes on, there will be some cumulus develop and showers and
thunderstorms. The better chance for thunderstorms will be late
this evening and into the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings are
expected late tonight into Monday.




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