Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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000
FXPQ50 PGUM 200724
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
524 PM ChST Thu Feb 20 2020

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies and moderate northeast trade winds persist across
the region. A stalled shear line remains well northwest of the
Marianas. Seas are hovering between 8 and 9 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
A dry pattern will persist for the next several days with only a
slight chance of showers in the short term. Have delayed increased
cloudiness until Sunday as latest model runs are showing a weak
trade-wind disturbance arriving a little slower than earlier
expected. However, only isolated showers are expected through the
weekend. Conditions will clear up next week with moderate to fresh
trade winds continuing into late week before winds temporarily
subside.

&&

.Marine...
Buoys continue to show a long period NW swell that will help to
maintain a high risk of rip currents along north and west facing
reefs in the short term. Seas and winds will continue along just
under the threshold values of a small craft advisory through the
middle of next week, however, models suggest both winds and seas will
become hazardous for small craft over the weekend. A dominant east
swell will maintain a high risk of rip currents through at least mid
next week.

&&

.Fire weather...
With little rain accumulation expected for at least the next week,
the overall fire danger will continue to steadily increase. Fires
have been forming more often recently, and stronger winds this
weekend will make containment more difficult. As fuels continue to
dry and eventually begin to brown in coming weeks, we will see the
daily fire danger reaching into the very high and extreme
categories.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail over the eastern half of
Micronesia. Scatterometer analysis shows convergent winds and a weak
disturbance south of Pohnpei. As a result, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen in an east-to-west oriented line of
clouds and showers just south of Pohnpei and stretching eastward to
south of Majuro. No significant development expected.

Another trough east of the Marshall Islands will move westward and
bring increased showers to Majuro starting Sunday and then Kosrae by
Monday.

Persistent trade-wind and long-period north swells are going to
sustain hazardous surf on Pohnpei and Kosrae for the next several
days.Surf on Majuro is staying just below advisory criteria but
might eventually reach hazardous levels later this weekend.Satellite
altimetry still has heights just below high surf criteria of 9 ft.
Seas near Majuro and Pohnpei will be hazardous for small craft thru
at least Friday.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Not much change made to the forecast for Western Micronesia. Moderate
to fresh trade winds and only isolated showers will continue through
Tuesday. The patchy clouds and isolated showers associated with a
surface trough will reach Palau by tomorrow. Mostly cloudy skies will
be over Chuuk and move westward giving way to partly cloudy skies by
Saturday. The trough east of the Marshall Islands will reach Chuuk
by Tuesday.

A cold front/shear line has stalled well north of Yap and Koror, but
strong winds behind that boundary have generated some moderate NNW
swell that should arrive at about 4-5 feet at Yap and Koror today,
and at around 2 feet Friday night at Chuuk. Seas are expected to
remain below levels hazardous for small craft for now, except briefly
at 10 feet Thursday at Yap. A high surf advisory for north facing
reefs of Chuuk has been extended through the weekend as short-period
wind waves from the northeast will remain elevated.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for
     GUZ001>004.

Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

W. Aydlett/Miller



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