059
FXUS64 KHUN 160511
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Despite convection boxing us in from the NW and SE, tonight is
forecast to be another warm yet benign night. Convection to our NW
is forecast to die off as the sunset leaving us with dry
conditions overnight. Calm winds and low dew point depressions
may allow for some patchy to local dense fog to develop through
mid morning.

Tomorrow, conditions will heat up across the TN Valley. With
elevated dewpoints in the low 70s remaining in place, the slightly
warmer temps in the mid 90s will allow heat indices to soar over
100, with locations in NW and north central Alabama seeing the
highest apparent temps near and just above 105. For this reason,
a Heat Advisory is in effect for NW and north central Alabama from
10 AM to 7 PM. Please make sure to practice proper heat and sun
safety. Low rain and storm chances will also be retained tomorrow
afternoon with the coverage perhaps slightly better than we have
seen the previous days. No widespread severe threat is forecast
however any storms that do develop will be capable of heavy down
pours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Synoptics will have a much greater influence in the short term
forecast as we head into the second half of the work week. Two
features will drive our local weather. To our NW paired with a
surface low pressure system will drape a cold front across the NE
CONUS from Wednesday into the weekend. To our SE, Invest 93L will
continue to be pushed west across the Gulf coast as surface high
pressure nudges westward into the FL Peninsula. Despite these two
synoptic features sandwiching us to the north and south. local
impacts will be very familiar. The proximity of these two
features will keep tropical moisture trapped in the TN Valley and
allow for perhaps slightly higher diurnal rain and storm chances
each afternoon.

This slight increase will have an impact on our afternoon high
temperatures and play into the decision on extending the Heat
Advisory. Current forecast highs are in the low to mid 90s each
day. Should afternoon showers fire up, we may not reach our
afternoon forecasted high each day. Thus, extensions to the Heat
Advisory will likely be evaluated on a daily bases through at
least Thursday as forecasters have the chance to look at the most
recent HIRES guidance regarding high temps, dew points, and storm
coverage and timing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Long range models show mid level ridging retrograding across the
Gulf coast through the start of next week. This unfortunately
will amount to more of the same for the long term forecast. High
pressure will keep elevated dew points and temperatures anchored
to the TN Valley. This will amount to apparent temps near and just
over 100 nearly everyday of the long term forecast. Likewise,
daily afternoon rain chances look to remain in the forecast.
Around and along the northern edge of the ridge, NW flow may
support MCS development in the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley as
we head into next week in. We will be keeping an eye on this trend
should dying MCS try to drop into our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 12011 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at KHSV and KMSL through most of the
TAF period. Included fog at KMSL but low confidence in how low VIS
could go, so kept it MVFR and will monitor ob trends. Diurnal
convection will be isolated across north Alabama, thus low
confidence in direct impacts to terminals and kept it out of this
TAF forecast package.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ001>007-016.

TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...JMS