Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 152335
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Forecast highlights: Warm and windy Thursday- Friday, increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances Friday evening through early Saturday,
and again Sunday afternoon- night.

Cool and quiet weather will encompass the region tonight and
Wednesday, as Canadian high pressure settles southeast across the
Heartland. Forecast lows are well into the 30s, coolest across
central and north-central Kansas, with forecast highs in the low
to mid 60s Wednesday.

Unseasonably warm weather and stout/gusty south winds will
prevail Thursday-Friday, as approaching western CONUS upper
troughing strengthens High Plains low pressure. Forecast high
temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are likely. Shower/thunderstorm
chances should increase modestly Friday evening through early
Saturday across the forecast area, as a cold front traverses the
region. While a few rowdy storms cannot be ruled out given decent
shear/forcing combination, the overall severe threat should be
limited due to fairly meager moisture return and associated
instability.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

A somewhat stronger/deeper western CONUS upper trough is expected
to take shape this weekend. This should support continued mild
and breezy weather (breezy/windy especially Sunday). Rain/storm
chances are questionable, given questionable moisture/instability
return in wake of Friday night`s storm system. At this point,
thinking the greatest potential for rain/storms will be Sunday
afternoon and night across mainly eastern Kansas, as an associated
strong cold front moves across the area. Once again, while a
handful of rowdy storms are possible given decent forcing/deep
layer shear combination, the overall severe threat should be
limited due to lower-end moisture/instability.

Seasonably cool temperatures will likely return to the region for
at least the first half of next week, as cooler air spreads
across the Heartland in wake of the weekend system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

It`ll be clear flying thru late Wed night as high pressure settles
from the ern Dakotas to the ern Red River. Winds that are Nly from
13-17kts will quickly diminish to ~7kts by 01Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    37  63  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      34  63  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          36  62  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        37  61  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   38  63  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         32  63  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      32  64  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          34  61  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       34  62  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     38  61  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         38  60  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            37  60  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    38  61  38  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS


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