Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS63 KICT 301135
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Main story up front: Hot temperatures and humid conditions expected
through Saturday. A frontal passage will bring a chance of storms
Saturday evening/early Sunday morning along with subsequent cooler
temperatures for much of next week.

Today looks to be a continuation of the past few days with hot and
humid conditions gripping most of the region. Our western counties
may see slight reprieve from higher heat indices with higher
dewpoints mixing out this afternoon. However, for the rest of the
CWA heat indices will once again climb in the 102 to 107 range as
deeper moisture holds firm.

Questions still remain regarding temperatures and heat indices
Saturday afternoon as model guidance is still having a difficult
time resolving the progress of the front. A later arrival time of
the front would lead to higher temperatures and pooling of moisture
along the front the northern and central portions of the CWA.
However, faster passage of the front would provide quicker relief
from the heat, particularly for central Kansas. Regardless,
confidence in heat indices ranging from 102 to 107 across the
southern half of the CWA is high enough to heat headlines in this
area. Potential for northward expansion of heat headlines may need
to be considered if model guidance starts resolving a slower
solution consistently. This front will also be the focus for our
rain chances this weekend. Coverage Saturday afternoon will likely
be closely tied to the front and be limited by modest surface
convergence and warm mid level temperatures. However, throughout
the evening and overnight hours, the presence of the mid level
baroclinic zone stretching east to west across the state should
aid in an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
though again coverage may be slightly limited by veered winds in
the mid levels limiting moisture transport over top of the front.
With 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE along the front and 20-25 kts of shear,
strong to marginally severe storms are possible Saturday
afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

GFS and ECMWF continue to trend towards more of a breakdown and
regression of the upper ridge via a potent upper trough digging into
the eastern half of the CONUS. Going into next week, the region will
be dominated by north westerly flow aloft promoting cooler than
average temperatures for this time of year. Also, the GFS and ECMWF
are signaling chances for more showers and thunderstorms aided by
the passage of shortwave troughs embedded in the northwesterly flow
and a rather stout baroclinic zone in the mid levels. While too far
out for exact timing, slight chances for precipitation will be
maintained in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side today and
tonight.

Surface high pressure is currently situated over the Upper
Mississippi Valley with a cold front stretching from southern IL
into far northeast KS. This front is expected to stay north of
the area today. So we are looking for VFR conditions to continue
with generally light south winds today through the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    99  76 101  70 /   0   0  20  60
Hutchinson     101  76 100  68 /   0   0  30  50
Newton          98  76  98  68 /   0   0  30  60
ElDorado        97  75  98  69 /   0   0  30  60
Winfield-KWLD   99  75 101  71 /   0   0  10  50
Russell        101  75  92  66 /   0   0  20  30
Great Bend     100  74  95  66 /   0   0  20  40
Salina         101  76  96  68 /   0  10  20  40
McPherson      100  76  98  67 /   0   0  30  50
Coffeyville     99  75  98  72 /   0   0  10  60
Chanute         97  76  97  71 /   0   0  20  70
Iola            97  75  96  70 /   0   0  30  70
Parsons-KPPF    98  75  97  71 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ067>069-082-083-
091>093.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ033-048>052.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...RBL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.