Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 230449
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1149 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Current satellite imagery shows a pronounced moisture axis stretched
across the southern portions of Missouri, Kansas, into Oklahoma and
the Panhandle of Texas.  Last night`s convection pushed the surface
front into Northern Oklahoma this morning.  The mid level front
remains further to the north in Southern Kansas and into the
Panhandle of Oklahoma and Texas.  The NAM/HRRR/RAP seem to be in
fairly good agreement with decent moisture transport over northern
Oklahoma and parts of extreme Southern Kansas.  Forcing is paltry
but persistent.  This will likely make up for the fact the forcing
is not as good as it should.  The ECMWF/GFS/GEFS Plumes are a little
weaker with areal extend and intensity of the expected rain for
tonight. However, none of the models seems to handling a weak short
wave/vorticity max that is currently working its way out of the
Texas Panhandle.  This vorticity max is likely to move over the
region during the night time hours and could easily push some of the
heavy rain further north into South Central Kansas.  As such, will
leave the flash flood watch in place as much of South Central Kansas
is now completely saturated from last night`s rains.  This ground
condition means it will not take much additional rainfall to create
flooding issues tonight.

Friday and into Saturday look to remain active as the frontal
boundary will still be in the region.  Confidence drops off
significantly as we move into the weekend though as the short range
models continue to struggle with frontal boundary and moisture axis
placement.  While the ECMWF looks to be the wettest of the three,
this appears to be a little optimistic as the NAM and GFS indicate
some strong ridging will push into the region from the northeast for
Friday and much Saturday.  The ECMWF brings the bulk of the moisture
into the region during the night Friday.  While the NAM and the GFS
are rather dry, the NAM does have a higher chance for rain during
the night Friday and into Saturday morning.  As such, kept the POPs
up a little during this time to compensate.  Temperatures during
this time are likely to remain below normal as cloud cover and
northerly flow is expected to dominate the region for the most part.
Additionally, any rain that is produced will also keep the temps
down.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The extended range looks to remain rather active as the cold front
which came through in the short term and hung around the KS/OK state
line through Saturday will return to the region as a warm front
Sunday and Sunday night.  Moisture transport looks to pick back up
over much of Southern and Western Kansas as well as Northern
Oklahoma.  CAPE values and instability look to increase as well. The
GFS is bullish on this potential while the ECMWF is not as intense.
Confidence on this thunderstorm event is low due to the lack of
consistency between models and successive model runs.

Monday both the GFS and ECMWF indicate some ridging with decent WAA
and down slope flow.  This will likely allow temperatures Monday to
warm up some however, this warmth is expected to be short lived
as the next front will push through Monday night and into Tuesday.
As such, Monday is likely to be the warmest day of next week.
Both the ECMWF and the GFS indicate a strong cold front will push
through Monday night and Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely along this front. Orientation of the front, moisture axis
and upper level support indicate severe weather is a possibility
here along with heavy rain. Once this front moves through Tuesday,
northerly flow will return to the region and bring temperatures
back down below normal for a while. Both the ECMWF and GFS have
been consistent with the strength of this system the past several
model runs. Confidence is increasing that temperatures will drop a
decent amount and are likely to remain below normal for the rest
of next week.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

VFR prevailed across the area late this evening while temperature
and dewpoint spreads were rapidly narrowing. A moist boundary
layer and light easterly upslope flow should result in at least
some patchy fog, especially across central and portions of south
central KS where less clouds are anticipated. Maintained VCSH near
KCNU as some scattered showers and storms lift northeast out of
OK. We may also see some stratus expand in coverage through the
overnight hours with IFR and perhaps some brief periods of LIFR
across much of central and portions of south central KS. Low cigs
will mix out as we move through the morning hours on Fri with VFR
anticipated by mid to late morning. Light easterly & southeasterly
winds are anticipated through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  84  67  81 /  30  20  50  60
Hutchinson      67  84  66  81 /  30  20  50  50
Newton          67  83  67  79 /  30  20  40  50
ElDorado        68  82  67  80 /  30  20  40  50
Winfield-KWLD   68  84  67  81 /  50  30  40  60
Russell         64  85  65  82 /  20  10  50  60
Great Bend      66  85  65  82 /  30  10  50  60
Salina          67  85  67  81 /  20  20  40  50
McPherson       66  84  66  79 /  30  20  40  60
Coffeyville     69  83  69  82 /  70  50  50  50
Chanute         67  82  68  79 /  40  30  40  40
Iola            67  81  67  79 /  40  20  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    68  82  68  80 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...MWM


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