Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 192124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
424 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019


Tonight through Sunday...The outer edges of Nestor`s moisture are
beginning to move east of the area this afternoon along with the
light rainshowers, but a pretty extensive area of low clouds
continues over these areas. The clouds will continue over the east
into the overnight hours, with the remainder of the area to the west
experiencing partly cloudy skies. The main concern tonight will be
patchy areas of fog overnight. There is some potential for dense fog
overnight, so this will have to be monitored for the potential for a
dense fog advisory. Lows tonight will be in the mid/upper 50s for
most of the area, to around 60 across the delta.

The surface flow will become more southeasterly on Sunday and this
combined with a couple of weak shortwaves and increasing moisture,
may kick off a few showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for
storms will be in the west in the morning, spreading east through
the day. Highs on Sunday will be in the low/mid 80s over most of the
area. /15/

Sunday night through Friday night...By October standards, the
upcoming weather pattern looks rather active. A rapidly deepening
low pressure system over the Northern High Plains will take on a
negative tilt as it develops and moves east toward the Great Lakes
on Monday. At the surface, a strong cold front trailing the low
pressure system will sweep through our region Sunday night through
Monday night promising to bring some threat for severe weather.
In general, no drastic changes were needed from the previous
forecast, but there does seem to be a slight westward/slower trend
with regards to the cold front passage on Monday, and this may
allow for a better chance for instability to develop during the
daytime ahead of the front`s passage.

The most significant chances for showers and thunderstorms will
hold off until early Monday morning as the cold front moves into
our forecast area. An organized convective system with severe
weather potential is expected to approach the ArkLaMiss Delta
region by mid morning. Height falls in advance of the front still
look to be minimal, but strong moist advection beneath a low level
cap should help to increase instability mid-morning to mid-
afternoon Monday. Strong deep layer shear (35-50 kts of 0-6km
shear) should maintain some potential for organized, strong to
severe thunderstorms near the cold front. The primary hazards will
be damaging wind gusts and a few possible tornadoes where bowing
segments can develop. Lapse rates look to be weak enough that
there is not much of a hail threat, but the deep layer shear will
support at least some supercell organization. Therefore all modes
of severe weather will be possible, especially if any bowing
segments develop along the line or isolated supercells can develop
ahead of the front.

Behind the front, a continental airmass will bring cooler and
drier weather for Tues-Wed, then the next system will begin to
take shape over the Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region
Thursday. There is still quite a bit of disagreement among model
solutions with an approaching shortwave trough as we go through
Thurs night into Friday, but given the reservoir of copious
moisture continuing to pool just to our south, there could be a
threat for some heavier rainfall if some of the slower and more
amplified guidance verifies with the mid level trough. /NF/EC/


18Z TAF discussion:
A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail at TAF sites this
afternoon. Most of the low clouds are beginning to lift and
dissipate, but expect GTR/MEI to remain MVFR/IFR through much of
the period, as residual moisture from Nestor remains over the
east. Expect a return of MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions overnight to
most TAF sites once again. /15/


Jackson       58  83  68  80 /   5  33  15  87
Meridian      57  83  67  80 /   2   8  10  76
Vicksburg     60  85  70  80 /  17  30  19  91
Hattiesburg   58  83  68  81 /   2  16   8  72
Natchez       61  84  71  79 /  16  37  18  89
Greenville    60  82  69  78 /  17  26  41  92
Greenwood     58  82  69  77 /   5  28  31  92




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