Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 252007
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
307 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday:

Visible satellite imagery showing back edge of convective plume
approaching the I55 corridor as only a few showers left of exiting
MCS over southeast MS. Other showers were noted on radar this
afternoon over northern and western portions of the area in close
proximity to the mid level cold core low spinning over AR. Expect
these showers to continue through the remainder of the afternoon
then diminish after sunset with the loss of heating.

Cooler/drier air will begin building into the area this evening
behind a cold front, currently traversing the forecast area. Some
cloud cover will linger this evening, but as depth of drier air
increases, clouds will diminish from the west after midnight.

Mostly sunny skies will prevail Friday, though surface winds may be
a bit gusty in the cool air advection behind the boundary,
especially over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. /GG/

Saturday through Wednesday:

Surface high pressure will govern the weather on Saturday.
Ridging aloft tries to build in but a shortwave is projected to
eject into the Upper-Mississippi Valley. This shortwave is
expected to track through the Upper Midwest and then eastward on
Sunday. A weak surface boundary trailing from this system could
fall a bit into our CWA on Sunday. The models differ on how far
south the front makes it until it eventually stalls and
dissipates. Should the front make it partly into our region, temps
on the backside of the front will be a bit cooler than ahead of
it and there may be some weak convection that pops up along the
boundary during the day Sunday. Due to the uncertainty of where
the front will lie though, temps and pops for Sunday are a bit
uncertain as well. For now, highs in the lower 80s are forecast
for along and south of I-20 with highs in the upper 70s north of
I-20.

Ridging will build over the Gulf and the Southeast U.S. early next
week. This will lead to warming, late-spring-like temperatures.
Southerly surface flow will bring moisture and PWs above 1 inch to
the region. Temps in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s will
bring a hint of summer to the area beginning on Monday. As the upper
flow begins to amplify by mid-week, the next round of rain looks to
move in the second half of next week. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
The large convective system continues to diminish as it pushes
east, but some embedded thunder and heavy rain continues in
portions. This system will mainly affect GTR, MEI, HBG and PIB
through 25/20Z. Otherwise, mostly MVFR ceilings exist across the
area at present ahead of a cold front oriented along the MS river.
Southerly winds at 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 25 knots will
switch to the west and northwest with the frontal passage with
ceilings rising to VFR shortly, thereafter. /GG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       58  75  51  80 /  33   5   0   2
Meridian      59  76  49  80 /  49   2   0   2
Vicksburg     58  75  51  80 /  19   1   0   2
Hattiesburg   59  78  50  81 /  44   1   0   2
Natchez       59  75  51  80 /  19   0   0   1
Greenville    58  74  53  79 /  20   0   0   3
Greenwood     57  74  51  79 /  45   1   0   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$


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