Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 171125
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

A high amplitude pattern continues across the CONUS
tonight. High pressure was located over the lower Ohio Valley with a
ridge extending north into Hudson Bay. A trough of low pressure was
located along the west coast and extended from Washington south into
northern California. Broad southwesterly flow extended from southern
California northeast into the northern plains. Within this flow,
numerous shortwaves were noted from the southern into the northern
Rockies tonight. Other lead shortwaves were noted from eastern
Colorado into eastern South Dakota. At the surface: Low pressure was
located over eastern Montana with a trough of low pressure extending
south into eastern Colorado. A cold front extended to the southwest
of this low into eastern Idaho then south into western Utah.
Southerly winds east of the surface trough, had led to mild
temperatures tonight. Readings as of 2 AM CDT, ranged from 60 at
Gordon, to 75 at O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

An upper level trough of low
pressure will quickly cross the Rockies today, emerging onto the
high plains of eastern Wyoming and eastern Montana by 00z Weds. The
surface trough will begin to track east into western then central
portions of the forecast area this evening. For today, very warm
temperatures will develop in advance of the approaching surface
trough with highs around 90 expected. Wind speeds will be slower in
the central and west as the surface trough approaches this
afternoon. However, in the eastern forecast area, breezy condition
will extend into the afternoon hours. Later this evening as the
surface trough transitions into eastern portions of the forecast
area, a cold front will approach northwestern Nebraska late evening.
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening in the west with the
threat transitioning east across northern Nebraska into the
overnight hours. Precipitation chances will be limited tonight and
isolated in nature with the best threat over northern portions of
the forecast area. This is due to strong capping and weak dynamics
aloft. H5 temperatures will be coolest in the northern Panhandle and
western Dakotas overnight, so the greatest instability will be in
those areas, as will greater coverage of thunderstorms. With the
frontal passage and drier air filtering into the forecast area, lows
will range from around 50 in the northeastern forecast area, to
around 60 in the east. Highs Wednesday behind the cold front, will
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

The cold front will stall off to the south and east Wednesday
night, lifting north as a warm front on Thursday. Thunderstorms
will be possible in the far eastern forecast area Wednesday night
INVOF the front. By Thursday, an upper level trough of low
pressure will lift into the inter mountain west, lifting the cold
front north as a warm front. Highs Thursday will reach back into
the mid to upper 80s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Thursday night in association with a weak upper level
disturbance. Coverage however, will be limited as mid level
temperatures will be warm Thursday night. Scattered thunderstorms
will develop Friday afternoon and Friday night as the main upper
level trough emerges onto the central and northern Plains. Beyond
Friday night, mainly drier and cooler conditions are expected as
the trough aloft exits to the east. After highs in the 80s Friday,
readings will be in the 70s for Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

The main aviation weather concern for this TAF period will
continue to be the gusty winds. Recent surface observations show
gusty southerly winds this morning near 20 kts. These winds are
expected to continue through the day Tuesday. Winds will be
strongest across central Nebraska this afternoon with gusts up to
30 to 35 kts possible. In addition, the strong winds at the
surface and stronger winds aloft will bring LLWS concerns.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Thorne


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