Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 222343
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
543 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 257 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

Freezing drizzle with patchy fog to areas of fog mixed with light
snow at times will continue tonight. A transition to snow and fog
will occur across the northwest Sandhills late evening and move
east to near an Ainsworth through Sutherland and Imperial line
late tonight. Chances for freezing drizzle, fog, and light snow
all areas to the east overnight.

An amplified upper trough currently just west of the Four Corners
Region will take on a negative tilt with a closed low into the
Texas Panhandle by 12Z Saturday. A 700mb trough will become a
focus for mid level frontogenesis tonight as a surface cold front
moves into western Nebraska tonight. New snow accumulations 1 to 2
inches west of Imperial through Mullen, and a dusting to less than
an inch elsewhere.

On Saturday, the main upper trough swings across. 2 to 4 inches
expected along and south of I80. Models are in fair agreement on
a deformation zone to move east across the area. The GFS remains
to most organized in showing this, while the NAM indicates a much
weaker deformation zone. The HRRR, RAP and NAM Nest models have
increasingly shown QPFs and snowfall amounts trending toward
forecast amounts, so confidence is increasing on overall model
consensus. Only expecting an inch or less near and north of highways
2 and 91.

Across the southern half of the forecast area, northwest winds
will increase to 25 to 35 mph by late Saturday morning through the
afternoon with gusts as high as 45 mph. This may cause areas of
blowing snow and low visibility. Extra caution should be used if
travel is necessary on Saturday.

Snow ends west of Valentine through Ogallala by 18Z, with snow
completely east of the area by Saturday evening. A winter weather
advisory will remain in effect for the entire western and north
central Nebraska counties through Saturday afternoon. See the
latest headline for additional details about this storm.

Clear and cold Saturday night with lows into the single digits to
around 10 above. Wind chills late night could reach 10 below north
central.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

For Sunday through Friday, temperatures will remain much below
normal each day with highs mainly in the 20s, with only teens some
areas Monday through Wednesday. A bocking ridge over Alaska will
continue to transport arctic air from central Canada southward
into the Plains and Great Lakes region next week. A modest warmup
into the 30s to near 40 by Thursday as an upper trough moves into
the Pacific northwest. Small snow chances Sunday night into Monday
morning north central, otherwise mainly dry until that upper
trough in the Pacific Northwest swings across Thursday night and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

IFR and periodic LIFR conditions expected overnight across much
of western Nebraska as freezing drizzle and snow moves into the
area from the west. Expect brief periods of LIFR to impact KVTN
shortly after 23/00z and KLBF shortly after 23/02z. LIFR
conditions will be periodic before conditions improve after 23/15z
as ceilings rise. Winds will shift from the east prior to dawn to
northwest by early afternoon with gusts approaching 30 to 40
knots.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Saturday for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler/Jurgensen


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