Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 181107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
607 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Strong northwest flow aloft will be present today. A shortwave
embedded within the flow will drop southeast across the area,
bringing very cold air aloft with H5 temperatures near -29C
and H7 around -8C. This will set the stage for very steep
mid-level lapse rates, and expect isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop as convective temperatures are
reached this afternoon. With such cold air aloft would not be
surprised to see a little small hail with some of the stronger
cores. Otherwise it will be windy, with H85 wind speeds nearing
40 kt. A well mixed boundary layer will allow these stronger
winds to mix to the surface, with north to northwest gusts over
30 mph expected. Skies clear and winds quickly diminish tonight,
and as drier air moves into the area expect a chilly night with
lows in the lower to mid 30s.

A strong mid-latitude cyclone will develop across the eastern
portion of the nation Friday. North to northwest flow aloft will
continue across our area to the west of the system, but
temperatures aloft will be warmer and the air drier compared to
Thursday, so expect lots of sun. Winds Friday will be much
lighter, and highs very mild in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Flow aloft becomes more westerly Saturday as a shortwave aloft
progresses east across the Northern Plains. A warm day expected
Saturday ahead of a cold front that will be moving southeast into
the area during the afternoon. Have nudge highs up a bit to mid
80s across southwest Nebraska and mid 70s to around 80 across
northern portions of the state. Colder air will begin to move
southward Saturday night behind the cold front. Breezy and much
cooler conditions Easter Sunday, with highs ranging from the mid
50s to near 60.

Models have come in a bit wetter Sunday night into Monday. Both the
ECMWF and GFS dig an upper trough into the central Rockies by early
Monday morning. Diffluent flow aloft and increasing moisture ahead
of the trough should set the stage for at least scattered rain
showers Sunday night through Monday night. Tuesday and beyond are
somewhat in question. The latest 18/00Z ECMWF digs the central
Rockies system into KS where it stalls and closes off. This is
farther north than previous model runs, and could bring an increase
in shower activity, especially across portions of southern NEB
Tuesday into Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The main
concerns are the expected development of gusty northwest winds of
30 knots or higher and the development of scattered showers and
weak storms. Confidence in any of these directly impacting the TAF
sites is low so will exclude for now.




LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Jurgensen is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.