Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 181017
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
417 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
An upper trough is over the western U.S. and an upper high was off
the coast of Florida. The upper trough will strengthen tonight and
Tuesday as the ridge strengthens over the eastern U.S. Southwest
flow will increase over Arkansas through the period.

Surface high pressure is over Arkansas this morning. Low pressure
will bring a warm front out of the Gulf of Mexico toward Arkansas
tonight. Expect rain chances in the south late tonight, workinng
northward. Light freezing rain or sleet will be possible Tuesday
morning in the north where temperatures will be below freezing.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated over the eastern
half of the area Tuesday afternoon through evening with heavy rain
at times. 2 to 3 inches of rainfall are possible in the eastern half
of the state. This could have impacts on rivers, which are running
high or in flood already. Highs today will be in the upper 30s to
near 50 degrees and lows tonight will be in the mid 20s to mid
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The period begins with a weak surface low departing the forecast
area within an overall southwesterly upper flow regime. An
associated cold front will sweep through the state during the
afternoon hours forcing any lingering precipitation out of the
region. Drier and cooler weather returns as high pressure settles
over the region from the northwest. Quiet and calm weather will be
short lived as high pressure retreats to the east. Return flow
commences and the surface frontal boundary located along the Gulf
Coast will start lifting northward as a warm front in response to
the departing surface high.

Heading into Thursday and Friday, the large scale pattern will favor
a deep trough over the Desert Southwest with strong ridging centered
just east of the Bahamas. The aforementioned warm front should
stall out south and east of AR (MS/AL/TN) oriented southwest to
northeast. A near endless conveyer of moisture latent air, via the
Maya Express, will pump moisture up and over this warm front which
will also interact with passing upper level energy to produce
periods of moderate to heavy rain Thursday afternoon through early
Sunday. This pattern will promote heavy rainfall over a broad area
for several days leading to moderate risk of flooding and flash
flooding, mainly for eastern AR.

Currently, the heaviest axis of precipitation appears to set up east
of AR where amounts of 6 to 10 inches of rainfall are possible.
Locally, amounts of 2 to more than 4 inches of rainfall can not be
ruled out across portions of central and eastern AR. Precipitation
is expected to come to an end on Sunday as a strong surface low
pressure and associated cold front sweep across the area.
Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold front. High
pressure will quickly build into the region behind the front.
Temperatures will remain rather mild through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     43  29  38  35 /   0  10 100 100
Camden AR         50  35  44  39 /   0  80 100 100
Harrison AR       39  25  37  32 /   0  10 100 100
Hot Springs AR    47  32  39  36 /   0  50 100 100
Little Rock   AR  46  32  41  37 /   0  40 100 100
Monticello AR     47  36  47  43 /   0  80 100 100
Mount Ida AR      47  32  38  34 /   0  50 100 100
Mountain Home AR  42  26  39  33 /   0  10 100 100
Newport AR        43  30  39  37 /   0  10 100 100
Pine Bluff AR     46  34  44  40 /   0  70 100 100
Russellville AR   46  30  39  35 /   0  20 100 100
Searcy AR         44  30  40  36 /   0  20 100 100
Stuttgart AR      45  33  42  39 /   0  50 100 100
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...51 / Long Term...JONES



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