Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 252340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
640 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Satellite images show abundant cloud cover continues across the
area. Most of the remaining showers and thunderstorms are in the
north and east. Expect these to dissipate by 05Z. Clouds and
patchy fog will continue into the morning. High pressure begins
building into the area Monday. VFR to IFR conditions are anticipated.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 257 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Sctd to numerous SHRA/embedded TSRA noted acrs the FA this aftn.
Activity was occurring ahead of an upper lvl trof working into WRN
AR this aftn. With PWAT values in excess of 2 inches acrs the FA
this aftn, we wl cont to seeing locally heavy downpours/rainfall
into early this evening.

The aforementioned upper trof wl eventually work acrs the FA
overnight, with rain chances diminishing fm the W. Low clouds are
expected to persist thru Mon mrng, along with patchy fog forming.
Otherwise, rain chances look to be minimal on Mon as the FA wl be in
between wx systems. Cannot rule out a stray SHRA/TSRA, but not
planning to keep PoPs below threshold values.

The next storm sys/CDFNT is progged to affect the area Mon night and
Tue. Model solutions are still in good agreement today with the
going fcst trends, so no major chgs were made to these periods.
SHRA/TSRA chances wl again ramp up fm the NW later Mon night and Tue
as the front works into AR. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out
Mon ngt acrs the NW part of the FA. However, the time of day assocd
with the FROPA still looks to keep organized svr storms to a minimum.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

The long term begins on a rather unsettled and amplified note.
Aloft, a large scale troughing will be traversing the U.S./Canadian
border with strong ridging over the Great Basin. Flow between
systems should be out of the west-northwest across western and
Central CONUS before rounding the base of the trough near the
Appalachians Mtns then becoming southwesterly into New England.
Through the remainder of the period, northwesterly flow will settle
in across the region. Ridging over the Four Corners will remain
stationary, meanwhile upper level vorticity maximums will rotate
through passing troughs every couple of days. These upper level
impulses are expected to push weather systems towards the eastern
half of the CONUS through the period.

A surface cold front is expected to be situated just to the south of
AR to begin the period. Surface northwesterly flow will advect
cooler and drier air into the region on Wednesday, however the warm-
humid air will be slow to retreat southward out of the state. Low-
level convergence near the frontal boundary will serve as the focus
and trigger to the eventual development of showers and
thunderstorms. This activity will increase in areal coverage both
north and south of the front as the system sags southward into
northern Louisiana. Best PoP chances will reside across the southern
half of AR. By Thursday, drier air filters into central and southern
AR with dew points dropping into the 60s, even dew points as low as
upper 50s are possible across the north. Dry weather is expected
into Thursday for much of the state, however surface winds will
quickly become southerly as surface high pressure moves east of the
region. A new surface low is expected to develop in lee of the
Rockies on Friday as the frontal locally lifts back to the north as
a warm front.

Heading into the weekend, southerly winds will continue to advect
moisture and warmer temperatures into the state, with best PoP
chances residing across western half of Arkansas. A new surface
frontal system will approach the state from the north late
Saturday/early Sunday bringing the potential of a reinforcing shot
of cooler air to the Natural State. Some indications suggest the
front may get hung up across portions of AR. Once again, the
boundary will serve as a focus for converging air and lift across
the region. Thus, rain chances return to AR over the weekend. With
the system being pretty far out, my confidence in a frontal passage
is pretty low at this time, however temperatures should remain near
or slightly below average through the period. High temperatures will
generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s and 70s. A few
locations across southern AR may see lower 90s. Heat index values
appear to remain below 100 degrees at this time during the long term


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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