Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
442
FXUS64 KMAF 191945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Not much has changed over the past 24 hours.  WV imagery indicates
the upper-level ridge has begun its trek north, and is currently
centered over West Texas.  Despite this, all models continue to
argue for lwr thicknesses this afternoon than 24 hrs ago, and
consequently highs a couple of degrees below yesterday`s.  However,
most locations will finish out the afternoon in the triple digits.

The ridge is still on track to move north-northwest over the next
few days, allowing highs to drop into the 90s most locations
beginning Tuesday, and continuing thru the extended and remaining
above-normal.  Thursday or so, models split the ridge between west
and east coasts as a trough moving thru the MS Valley begins
developing down thru the Arklatex and along the Texas coast. Near
the end of the weekend, models begin diverging in solutions, and the
strength of the ridge over the SW CONUS.  The GFS is coolest,
continuing to decrease thicknesses into next week, whereas the
Canadian favors an increase, w/other models falling somewhere in
between.  If the Canadian pans out, temperatures similar to today`s
will be possible next Monday, but that`s an outlier.  Otherwise,
cooler temps are on the way, and the blends bear this out.

Rain continues to be elusive w/no triggers save but orography and
residual boundaries from previous convection.  We`ll continue to
keep POPs low and generally oriented along the SW-NE low-level theta-
e ridge axis that`s been in place lately.  Chances may increase a
little over the weekend w/the trough developing in between the
ridges, but the models have yet to really show it.  Stay tuned.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  99  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       74  99  72  97 /  10   0  10   0
Dryden                         77 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  92  70  91 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          72  97  71  96 /  10   0  10   0
Marfa                          63  93  62  92 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           76  99  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         76  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           76 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/44



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.