Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMAF 181115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
615 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Winds will increase from the SW by mid
day today. Expect sustained speeds 15-20kt with gusts up to
25-30kt this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, wind speeds
diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, and a very dry AMS in place. 00Z KMAF raob came in w/a
pwat of 0.40", about 2/3rds of normal. To the west, an upper
trough is moving thru the Rockies and approaching the Four
Corners. As it does, low-lvl winds will veer to the west, keeping
moisture to the east and afternoon temperatures well-abv normal as
downslope warming kicks in. High wind potential in the
Guadalupes/Delawares will be right on the margin. The 06Z NAM is
struggling to produce even a modest mtn wave signature. NAM/GFS
soundings at KGDP at 21Z mix to 725mb/675mb, where 28kt/33kt
westerlies are forecast, respectively. That said, we`ll drop the
Delaware Mnts from the watch, and upgrade the higher elevations of
the Guadalupes to a warning for a marginal wind event. As the
trough pushes thru West Texas, the NAM/GFS/HRRR develop -SHRA over
the Stockton Plateau/SE Permian Basin this afternoon/evening.

A cold front will settle in behind the trough, w/fropa at KMAF ~
12Z Saturday. Despite this, temps Saturday afternoon should top
out well-above normal, although cooler than today. While the front
is making its way thru the area, a secondary trough will make
landfall on the west coast, and dig to the Central Plains by 00Z
Monday. This could result in another high wind event in the
Guadalupes/Delawares Sunday, and we`ll highlight this in the HWO.
A stronger cold front follows this trough, and may initiate
isolated -SHRA over the SE zones Sun night. Temps Mon afternoon
should top out right around normal.

A third trough will round out the work week, and this looks dry,
as well. Models are beginning to diverge on solutions that far
out, but a cold front should accompany this and move thru the area
Thursday or so. This will take temperatures back down to normal
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  53  80  53 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       85  52  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         89  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  89  56  80  57 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  51  72  52 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          85  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          81  48  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           89  55  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         89  55  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           90  52  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet.

&&

$$

27/44


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.