Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 280903
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
403 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow, w/winds
backing slightly after sundown. Forecast soundings develop a widespread
cu field by late morning, w/bases 6-8 kft AGL. Convection will be possible
as an upper trough passes to the south, w/best chances KMAF during
the afternoon. However, chances are too low and too far out to include
a mention attm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Not many changes to the short term.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge now centered over the central Rockies/Central Plains, whereas
farther south, an inverted trough is making landfall on the south
Texas coast.  Closer to home, a shortwave moving into the southeast
Permian Basin is developing isolated convection, which will be
possible down into the Stockton Plateau this morning.  This
afternoon, as the inverted trough moves farther west towards the Big
Bend Area, convective chances will increase across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico as height falls commence.  However, as
precipitation is never a guarantee w/troughs such as this, chances
will remain scattered at best.  This activity will diminish this
evening. Thursday, areal coverage will once again revert to the
higher terrain out west during the afternoon, nearer the departing
trough.

An added upside to the trough will be increased cloud cover and a
decrease in thicknesses, shaving around 5F off afternoon highs and
below-normal temperatures for much of the area.  Temps increase
Thursday, but only by a degree or so.  Lows overnight will be at or
above-normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

An upper level ridge will be over most of the country on Friday with
south to southeast upper winds over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico. Southeast surface winds will be across the area on Friday
which will continue to bring in low-level moisture. This will lead
to chances of showers and thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains. Temperatures will mostly be in the 90s on Friday.
The upper ridge will strengthen and build over the western half of
the country on Saturday, and temperatures will heat up from the
previous day. Chances of convection will remain across the higher
terrain on Saturday. A cold front will be pushing through Oklahoma
and the Texas panhandle on Sunday and showers and thunderstorms will
be possible along and ahead of this front. Temperatures on Sunday
will continue to heat up with portions of the area reaching the
triple digits. The front begins to impact northern portions of the
Permian Basin on Monday which will result in increased rain and
storm chances across the area. Rain chances continue for Tuesday and
next Wednesday along with temperatures that are near to slightly
below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  70  93  72 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 94  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                   94  71  95  74 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            92  68  94  70 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           87  66  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                    92  67  91  69 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                    86  61  87  60 /  30  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     92  69  92  72 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                   92  69  93  72 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                     94  70  96  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....80
AVIATION...44


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