693
FXUS63 KPAH 082005
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
305 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dangerous severe weather outbreak will continue through
  late tonight. All modes of severe weather remain possible,
  including the possibility of strong tornadoes, very large
  hail, and destructive straight-line winds.

- Threat for flash flooding will ramp up tonight through early
  Thursday morning as intense storms train over the same
  locations. The Flood Watch has been expanded to include parts
  of southwest IN, southern IL, and southeast MO, in addition to
  west KY.

- Much more tranquil weather is forecast Thursday through early
  next week, with the next chance of showers and isolated storms
  arriving Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

This afternoon and tonight...A dangerous severe weather setup
will persist across much of the forecast area through late
tonight. Currently, scattered to numerous supercells are
developing in the open warm sector across west KY and southern
IL. Expect the warm sector supercellular convection to continue
with an associated large hail, damaging wind, and tornado risk
through late this afternoon.

Further northwest, an intense bow echo is approaching southwest
IL from the south STL metro, with a history of producing very
large hail, straight line wind damage, and attempts at
tornadogenesis. This activity will impact the Route 13 to I-64
corridors through this afternoon through early tonight.

A final and perhaps more widespread straight-line wind risk will
develop ahead of the surface cold front over southwest MO this
afternoon and race into southwest MO, southern IL, southwest IN,
and west KY through 00-06z or so. These storms will likely have
the greatest chance of producing widespread straight-line wind
damage, as the storms will take advantage of an intensifying LLJ
of 30-50 kts.

In addition to the severe risk, the concern for flash flooding
will ramp up tonight as multiple round of intense training
convection will possible. Latest CAMs shows corridors of 2-4" of
QPF through 12z Thursday, with locally higher amounts possible
over the southern KY Pennyrile. For these reasons, opted to
expand the Flood Watch to include much of southeast MO, southern
IL, and southwest IN, in addition to existing Flood Watch in
west KY.

One area that may miss out on the severe storms is the area
north of I-64. The warm front has stalled just south of this
area, and is unlikely to progress further north due to ongoing
rounds of convection. Will need to monitor trends over the next
few hours.

Thursday through Tuesday...An extended period of quiet weather
can be expected Thursday through Sunday as high pressure builds
over the region. Temperatures look to remain near to slightly
above normal, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and overnight
low temperatures in the 50s.

Our next chance of precipitation will arrive Monday into
Tuesday next week as a surface low tracks over the region. The
path of the surface low will likely preclude organized
convection as it stands, though there will be a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above
normal with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s and
overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Isolated thunderstorm coverage early this afternoon will become
numerous to widespread this afternoon. Some storms will likely
be intense, with very strong winds and hail possible, in
addition to vigorous lightning activity. MVFR/IFR vsby
restrictions and some MVFR cigs are possible under thunderstorm
activity.

Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be from the SE to SW at
10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts this afternoon into early
tonight. Winds will be SW at 5-10 kts following the exit of
thunderstorm activity, around 03-07z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ILZ080>094.
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     110>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ085>088.
KY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS