Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 270755
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
255 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

The main forecast concern in the short term is the building heat
and humidity through Thursday, followed by a small chance for
thunderstorms by Thursday night across the northern half of the
area.

A strong upper high over the Plains will remain in place through
Thursday as the eastern branch of the high expands eastward into
the Middle Mississippi Valley. This will result in a gradual
increase in temperatures and humidity each day through Thursday.
Highs are forecast to increase from the lower 90s today into the
middle 90s Wednesday and middle to upper 90s on Thursday.

Slightly drier air should mix down today in the wake of the weak
cold frontal passage yesterday. However, as humidity increases
into Wednesday and Thursday, the heat will become a hazard. Peak
heat index readings are forecast between 100 and 105 Wednesday
afternoon, likely topping the 105 degree mark in most locations by
Thursday afternoon. Heat headlines are possible in some locations
on Wednesday and likely across nearly the entire area on Thursday.

A cold front is forecast to move into the area from the north
Thursday night, sparking the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the northern half of the area. The potential
for a few strong/severe storms will need to be monitored by
Thursday evening per SPC`s Day 3 marginal risk. Forecast models
tend to weaken and/or dissipate the activity before it reaches the
southern half of the area late Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

The upper level pattern starting out on Friday will feature an upper
high stretched from eastern Colorado into the central Plains and
down into southern Missouri and the lower Mississippi river valley.
Northwest flow will be present across a good chunk of the Midwestern
states. At the surface, a weak front will be sinking south in the
area during the day on Friday and may provide focus for some post
frontal convection. Convergence along the front is not too
impressive so will keep Pops rather low, with chances in the morning
focused on southern IL and southwest IN with the afternoon chances
sinking further south into southeast MO and west KY.

Over time on Friday into Friday night, the upper high will tend to
break down, allowing northwest flow to take over across the CWA.
This will mean we will have to be watching for thunderstorm
complexes that may develop upstream that may impact our area. This
scenario tries to unfold as early as Friday night into Saturday
morning. Convection is progged to develop well to our northwest
Friday night, which may end up diving southeast and impact parts of
the area either after midnight Friday night and/or into Saturday. It
is uncertain at this juncture how long the convection may last into
Saturday and exactly what areas may be impacted the most. However,
at this point, based on the latest guidance, parts of southeast
Missouri, southern IL and west KY seem to be the main target.

For the latter half of the weekend, a large upper trough will be
carved out over most of the eastern half of the country. We will
likely be dealing with hard to time perturbations in this upper level
flow pattern which may give us focus for some showers and storms. As
we head into Monday and Tuesday, chances are expected to dwindle as
a drying surface high pressure system finally builds into the
region.

As far as temperatures, Friday should be the warmest day area wide
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. However, as upper heights
begin to fall, we should see temperatures tempering back down into
the mid to upper 80s for the remainder of the forecast, with some of
the ensemble data suggesting even lower 80s for some locales.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Late night/early morning fog remains the only concern to aviation
through the 06Z TAF period. KMVN has already begun its seemingly
nightly visibility bouncing, so added in prevailing MVFR fog there
with MIFG to handle any lower conditions. Otherwise, still have
prevailing MVFR overnight at KCGI and KPAH, and even went to IFR
in a TEMPO at KPAH. Would not be surprised if visibilities in the
south start to drop by the end of the period as well.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS


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