Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 250028
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
828 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled in teh Mid Atlantic region tonight will lift north
on Thursday as low pressure tracks through the Mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region on
Friday followed by high pressure on Saturday. Another low out
of the central United States will move across the east on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

Stalled front was across southern Virginia with lower surface
dew points into northern Virginia. Not seeing much convergence
along the front, so in spite of low level pooling of dewpoints
along the NC/VA border, LFC just too high to produce much more
than some high based cu. There is an outside chance that a bit
more convergence could occur as seabreeze front moves inland and
provides some added convergence along the stalled front, over
the VA Piedmont east of Halifax/Charlotte Counties, but if
anything materializes it will be isolated.

Overnight and Thursday morning the front remains in the area.
Throughout Thursday surface to 500 MB flow backs to the
southwest and southwest Virginia, southeast West Virginia and
northern North Carolina end up in the warm sector and south of
the front by the end of the day. With the boundary in the area
will keep chance probability if precipitation in for Thursday,
but with no well-defined organized lift will keep the
probability in the chance to slight chance range with the higher
values across southeast West Virginia.

Will be staying on the warm side of guidance for lows tonight,
especially south of the front. Little change in the air mass on
Thursday as far as 850MB temperatures. Blend of MET/MAV guidance
will be reasonable for maximum temperatures on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

By Thursday night, the stalled frontal boundary will lift northward
as a warm front due to the influence of a low pressure system
arriving from the southern Mississippi River Valley. The cold front
associated with this system should bring widespread showers with a
slight chance of thunderstorms in the Piedmont. Winds should become
gusty from the northwest after the frontal passage but remain just
below advisory levels. Shower coverage will diminish by Friday
evening as a cool and dry northwest flow continues into the night.

A rather chilly start will take place on Saturday as high pressure
passes our CWA to the south. The latest model soundings reveal more
momentum aloft that could mix into the boundary layer later in the
afternoon, so the breezy winds have been extended into this
timeframe although not quite as strong compared to Friday afternoon.
Morning sunshine should give way to increasing clouds during the
evening as a low pressure system exits the Ohio River Valley. Winds
will eventually subside by Saturday night. A couple showers could
approach southeast West Virginia after midnight. However, the low
pressure system should stay to the north, which will keep confidence
as low for any measurable rainfall to reach the CWA before daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

Better agreement has been obtained in the models for the start of
next week now that the latest GFS has joined the overall consensus
in keeping the colder air away from the Mid Atlantic. Just spotty
light showers can be anticipated for Sunday from the low pressure
system staying to our north. Temperatures will briefly dip behind
this system on Monday before conditions warm up again by Tuesday. A
baroclinic zone should set up over the Ohio River Valley and stay
north of the Mid Atlantic during Tuesday and Wednesday. While our
CWA will stay in the warm sector, waves of low pressure riding along
this boundary could spark a few showers and thunderstorms. However,
the convection appears to stay poorly organized and remain mostly
driven by diurnal and orographical effects.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR anticipated overnight. Stalled front from WV into southern
VA may provide the focus for isolated showers, but
probability/confidence too low to include in any of the TAFs.
Moisture pooling along the front will allow for some high based
cu or alto-cu with thin layer of cirrus above. Cirrus is
expected to thicken on thursday with sct-bkn high based cu
and/or layer of alto-cu. Lower cloud elements, promoting MVFR,
may form along and north of stalled front, but this would mainly
be confined to areas north of I-64...KLWB-KCHO and north.

Throughout Thursday surface to 500 MB flow backs to the
southwest and the front ends up moving back north as a warm
front. Winds are expected to be light and variable until front
makes a more bonafide push to the north Thursday afternoon.
When this occurs winds will primarily be out of the SW at 6-12
kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

An area of low pressure is forecast to move northeast through
the Ohio Valley Thursday night and into New England Friday. The
associated surface cold front will cross the Mid-Atlantic
Region Friday. Expect a period of MVFR to IFR flight
restrictions in widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms -
especially Thursday night into Friday - before a return to VFR
weather on the backside of the departing system as high pressure
pushes back into the region on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM


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