Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 180903
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

.Another hot and dry day..

We could see another possibility of some isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop by the late afternoon. Confidence in both
development potential and coverage is low so no POPs have been
added to the forecast. The broken record forecast will remain the
constant as today will be another hot day. A heat advisory will
remain in effect today as temperatures reach the 101 to 107 degree
range with heat index values running a degree or two warmer. With
the continued hot and dry weather and breezy winds developing
during the afternoon, fire weather concerns will be the main
hazard for today. A rangeland fire danger statement will go into
effect this afternoon. It is safe to say that the 100 degree or
warmer streak will add another day to the total.

40

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)

Heat will continue to be an issue through Monday. Temperatures at
the 850mb level are forecast to be about a degree cooler than
Sunday`s values, and the 500mb ridge will be centered over Texas
and Oklahoma. With most of the area currently in the Heat
Advisory likely reaching advisory levels again, will continue the
Heat Advisory through Monday. From Tuesday into the second half of
the work week, the upper level ridge axis will shift northward,
allowing temperatures to slightly cool through the rest of the
week. Although we will likely still be in the mid 90s to around
100 degrees, we should at least fall below Heat Advisory criteria.
However, models have backed off on precipitation chances for the
mid week time-frame, so have kept PoPs at low end Slight Chance
for areas generally north of Interstate 20 from Wednesday into
Thursday. The forecast remains generally dry and hot through next
weekend as upper level ridging remains in place for the most part.
A weakness may develop Friday into Saturday that might provide for
another chance for precipitation, so will keep an eye on that
through this week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 104  79 102  77 /   0   5   0   5
San Angelo 106  76 104  75 /   5   5   0   5
Junction 104  74 102  74 /   0   5   0   5
Brownwood 104  76 102  75 /   5   5   0   0
Sweetwater 104  79 102  77 /   5   5   0   5
Ozona      101  74  99  73 /   5   5   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-
Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$


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