Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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704
FXUS64 KSJT 191130
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
530 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low clouds taking a little longer to develop than expected this
morning as dry air remains in the low levels. Expect to see low
level moisture continue to increase this morning, with MVFR/IFR
conditions developing after sunrise. Seeing some very light snow
around the KABI area, but expect precipitation to continue to be
very light through the morning. Light drizzle will develop across
the southern two thirds of the area through the morning and
afternoon, but not expecting a significant decrease in
visibility. MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue through the afternoon
and evening, with some improvement expected in the 04Z to 06Z
time frame.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Very light freezing precipitation possible for the Big Country
this morning...

Upper trough over northern Mexico early this morning will move
northeastward into the Big Bend area today and the Texas Panhandle
by this evening. Very impressive cloud shield showing up on
satellite ahead of the upper trough, with a classic baroclinic leaf
pattern over west Texas.

We are starting to see some very light banded precipitation develop
aloft on radar, but surface dewpoints are very low, so nothing is
reaching the surface quite yet. Will see temperatures hovering at or
just below freezing for the first half of the day across the Big
Country. As moisture continues to increase, will start to see some
very light precipitation make it to the ground by mid morning.
Expect areas of light freezing drizzle mixed with light snow mainly
north of a Sterling City to Robert Lee to Baird line.  Light rain or
light drizzle expected south of that area. Ground temperatures are
still rather warm, and precipitation will be very light, so not
expecting any accumulation of ice. High resolution models continue
to show the more significant precipitation to the east of the area.
Have decided to continue with a Special Weather Statement and
refrain from issuing an advisory at this time. Temperatures should
warm above freezing for the afternoon, with light drizzle continuing
into the evening.

As the upper trough heads northeast, light drizzle should end by
late evening.  Clearing skies toward morning will help temperatures
fall into the upper 20s to low 30s by Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

Dry conditions are expected on Wednesday and Thursday with
southwest flow aloft prevailing across West Central Texas.
Temperatures will moderate into the 60s across most areas, with
overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. The next upper level storm
low pressure will take shape across the Four Corners region by
Friday. Ahead of this system, scattered showers will be possible
Thursday night and Friday mainly across the eastern half of the
area..due to weak forcing aloft and increasing moisture levels.

The Four Corners trough will eject out across the Texas Panhandle
and Oklahoma on Saturday dragging a Pacific front through the
area. Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be
possible as the upper trough moves off to the north of the area.
Strong westerly surface winds will develop behind the Pacific
front/dryline. Gusty winds combined with dry conditions will lead
to elevated to possibly near critical fire weather conditions area
wide. Otherwise, dry and mild weather will prevail as we close
out the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  33  30  58  38 /  70  10   0   0
San Angelo  37  31  61  38 /  30  10   0   0
Junction  42  33  63  39 /  40  20   0   5
Brownwood  36  31  60  36 /  80  20   0   5
Sweetwater  32  29  57  38 /  40  10   0   0
Ozona       43  33  60  39 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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