Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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096
FXUS64 KSJT 192028
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
328 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Looks like quiet weather tonight with lows in the 50s. Expect hot
temperatures across West Central Texas on Sunday as low level
southwest flow and thermal ridge will be in play. Highs will be
mainly 90 to 95.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

With an upper trough digging southeast across the northern and
central Plains Sunday evening, associated cold front will push south
across west central Texas Sunday night. Carrying PoPs for roughly
the southeastern two-thirds of our area Sunday night, but the main
chance and focus will be in our eastern and southern counties, where
showers and thunderstorms may develop along the trailing portion of
the cold front. Given the forecast vertical shear and instability,
the possibility will exist for a few strong thunderstorms in some of
our eastern counties with hail and gusty winds.

Monday looks pleasant with cooler temperatures and an intrusion of
much drier air. Surface high pressure on Monday will build southeast
into the Red River Valley. After a cool night Monday night,
temperatures will rebound on Tuesday with return flow already
developing by morning. The warmup will continue on Wednesday with
breezy south winds.

A stronger cold frontal passage is indicated for Thursday, with
gusty north winds following its passage. With an upper trough
progged to deepen into the southern Plains, the setup will favor
chances for showers and thunderstorms along and behind the cold
front. Timing with the cold frontal passage on Thursday will affect
high temperatures. We currently have highs ranging from the upper
60s/near 70 in the northern Big Country, to mid 70s south.
Adjustments will likely be needed based on timing with the front. We
have slight chance PoPs in our eastern counties Thursday afternoon,
with higher PoPs across a larger part of our area Thursday night.
Have a slight chance PoP Friday morning for lingering showers, but
model differences become more apparent by that time. The GFS is more
progressive and brings an open trough east across our area on
Friday. If models trend toward the 12Z ECMWF solution with a closed
low developing over our far northern/northeastern counties, PoPs
will need to be increased on Friday. Extent of cloud cover and
precipitation will also affect highs on Friday. This could make the
difference between highs 60-65 verses highs in the 50s. Will also
need to monitor the potential for lows in the 30s across some of our
area Friday night, if good radiational cooling conditions set up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  54  91  50  74 /   0   0  30   0
San Angelo  52  94  51  77 /   0   0  30   0
Junction  55  92  57  79 /   0   5  50   5
Brownwood  52  92  52  75 /   0   5  40   5
Sweetwater  54  89  49  74 /   0   0  10   0
Ozona       55  89  54  77 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

21/19



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