Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 270752
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
252 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Upper level ridge remains to the north, with generally easterly
flow aloft across the area for today and tonight. HRRR continues
to be the model producing the most convection this afternoon and
evening across the area, with NAMNEST and TTU-WRF showing much
more isolated convection. Will go ahead and continue the mention
of isolated POPs across most of the area. Convection isolated
enough that it will have little effect on temperatures, with highs
again right around the 100 degree mark.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

An inverted trough will track across West Central Texas on
Wednesday. This will result in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, along with slightly cooler temperatures. The best rain
chances Wednesday afternoon will be south of Interstate 20. High
temperatures will generally be in the mid 90s. Mainly dry condition
are forecast on Thursday, but temperatures will be slightly below
normal. Highs will again be in the mid 90s.

Friday through Sunday, an upper level ridge will build into the
region, resulting in above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
Highs will range between 97 and 102 degrees, with overnight lows in
the mid to upper 70s. For the early part of next week, the GFS is
indicating a weak cold front moving into the forecast area. The 00Z
ECMWF has trended in this direction, with the Canadian showing a
similar solution. For now, have introduced slight chance PoPs,
mainly across the Big Country, late Monday into Tuesday. High
temperatures will be in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees, but these
may need to be trended down, depending on the eventual evolution of
the aforementioned cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

In general, light winds and VFR conditions will continue across
West Central Texas terminals through this evening. A few models
are suggesting a little more widespread convection than other
models, but given the likely spotty nature of any showers and
storms, will hold off mentioning in the terminals for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  75  96  74 /  20  20  20   5
San Angelo 101  74  97  73 /  20  20  30  10
Junction 100  73  95  71 /  20  20  30  10
Brownwood 100  75  97  73 /  20  20  20   5
Sweetwater  99  74  95  73 /  20  20  20   5
Ozona       98  72  94  71 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07


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