Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 250404

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1004 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Current surface analysis shows cool front now just southeast of
the area, with brisk northwest winds across parts of the western
SD plains. Upper level analysis shows low pressure moving across
TX, with near zonal flow over the Rockies and northern Plains. A
weak shortwave disturbance is moving across southeast MT and
eastern WY, with showers and isolated thunderstorms increasing in
coverage across northeast WY and far western SD. Temps range from
around 60 over northeast WY to near 80 over south central SD.

A more unsettled pattern can be expected through the forecast period
as a series of disturbances cross the region in persistent west to
northwest flow. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to
develop and track east across much of the area late today and
tonight, with the best chances for rainfall generally being across
southern SD. Showers will end from northwest to southeast during the

Temperatures will be a bit cooler late this week, especially by
Friday, but still near or slightly above average. A few instability
showers are possible across the Black Hills area Thursday afternoon.
Winds will be breezy from the northwest Thursday and from the
southeast on Friday. Widespread chances for showers can be expected
Friday afternoon into Friday night as a stronger disturbance crosses
the region.

The weekend looks to be cool in general, with Saturday mainly dry
between systems. The second half of the weekend will be showery as
the next system crosses the region. Colder air is expected to move
into the area late in the weekend, with below average temperatures
through the first half of next week. Temperatures look cold enough
during the overnight and morning hours for some snow showers over at
least northeast WY and the Black Hills, likely extending into
portions of the western SD plains as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 1002 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Numerous showers, especially over southwest and south central SD,
will gradually shift east of the region overnight. Local MVFR cigs
in heavier showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through




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