Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 171749 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1047 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Increased winds across the region through the day based on current
obs. Also, adjusted temperatures upward mainly across the north
and trimmed pops out west for this afternoon. Updated forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

As expected, radar returns are not actually reaching the sfc this
morning. Radar is picking up on some elevated moisture from a short
wave on the lee side of the upper trough.

The short term features a sfc low pressure system moving into KS/MO
on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Since the sfc system is so far south,
the bulk of the moisture will stay there, too. However, the upper
low swings through SD on Tue night and the enhanced forcing from
shortwave activity will generate widespread rain and snow through
Wed morning. Rain will begin across central SD by late this
afternoon, then change over to a mix of rain and snow as it slowly
spreads east this evening. Eventually, all areas will change to snow
by mid to late evening. Widespread 1 to 3 inch accumulations are
expected. Snow will be heaviest across the southeastern cwa from
Miller to Watertown and south. Have issued a winter weather advisory
for 2 to 4 inch accumulations. The main impact will be a slippery
morning commute on Wednesday. By late morning Wednesday, expect
falling snow to linger across the east, only. Accumulations will
diminish as April daytime heating increases and forcing decreases.

Winds will be breezy across central SD, but not particularly strong.
Visibilities may be reduced in falling snow, but blowing snow is not
a huge concern with this system. Temperatures on Wednesday will
climb into the mid 30s to mid 40s behind the storm.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Overall looks like a fairly inactive period for the latter half of
the work week and weekend. There is a cut-off circulation that will
come out of the 4 corners region, but this looks to head east and
well south of the CWA. The GFS is the only deterministic model that
brings precipitation this far north, although a number of GEFS
plumes bring a few hundredths of QPF for sites in the KABR CWA.

As for temperatures, expect highs several degrees below climo
initially, more so if we get a few inches of snow in the CWA. Models
show an upwards trend for the weekend, but infuriatingly these
temperatures are still below climo.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

An upper level low pressure trough digging into the region tonight
will spread rain and snow in from the west late this afternoon into
Wednesday morning. Therefore, expect VFR conditions to become
IFR/MVFR in vsbys and ceilings late this evening into Wednesday as
this system moves in.


SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for



LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Mohr is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.