


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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778 FXUS63 KDLH 080537 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1237 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and embedded thunderstorms this evening and tonight. A few strong storms possible in the Brainerd Lakes area. - Warming slightly above normal for Wednesday and Thursday before cooling to near normal to end the week before warming again through the weekend. - Chances for showers and storms return late week and continue for the weekend with chances for severe storms as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 437 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A shortwave trough was located across North Dakota early this afternoon along with a weak surface low to the south of the upper trough. These features have led to a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms stretching from the International Falls area southwestward into central/west-central Minnesota. No strong or severe storms are expected with this activity. This line will continue to push east over the remainder of this afternoon and evening before moving out of the region early Tuesday morning. Additional development behind this area of showers and storms will be possible across northwestern Minnesota later this afternoon and evening. CAMs show upscale growth into a cluster or complex of storms early this evening and then moving southeast into the Brainerd Lakes area through the remainder of the evening. Storms are expected to be weakening by the time they arrive, but may still be strong with gusts to 50 mph possible and maybe hail to the size of nickels. CAPE will only be around 200-500 J/kg per forecast soundings with marginal lapse rates and weak shear. A few wraparound showers/storms will then linger for Tuesday on the backside of the departing system with highs in the 70s. High pressure will move through on Wednesday bringing mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s and lower 80s. As the high moves to the east Wednesday night, southerly return flow will set up across the Upper Midwest and bring in warmer and more humid air. This will lead to widespread highs in the 80s on Thursday with dewpoints increasing into the 60s. A weak shortwave will crest the upper ridge over the Plains Thursday and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Northland starting Thursday afternoon and continuing into Thursday night. Models now develop an upper low ahead of a stronger trough/developing upper low that will bring more chances for showers and thunderstorms for the weekend. The presence of this leading upper low for Friday does throw a wrench in the severe storm potential for Friday. It could lead to rounds of rainfall through the day that would limit the strength of storms, or if dry conditions hold through the day it could help lead to stronger storms during the late afternoon and evening hours. The 12z suite of models seems to favor to the former and have lowered the available ingredients to fuel severe storms. What hasn`t changed is PWATs approaching 2" in the region, so a heavy rainfall threat still remains. Temperatures will trend cooler Friday with the clouds and rainfall with 70s and lower 80s and then further into the 70s for Saturday. Warmer air then returns for Sunday and into the new week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Lingering thunderstorms are moving across the Northland. INL will see reduced visibility and ceilings as a cluster of storms move over the terminal. After storms, fog is possible, especially at sites that saw rainfall earlier today. HIB and INL have already had reduced visibilities. Fog is not expected at DLH and HYR, though there is up to a 20% chance for fog at DLH. VFR conditions will return throughout the morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 437 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Northeasterly winds of 5 to 15 knots will persist for much of the upcoming week. Winds will be strongest during the afternoon before weakening at night. There will be chances for showers and a few isolated thunderstorms tonight, but storms are not expected to be strong or severe. More storm chances return Thursday and linger into the weekend. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...KML MARINE...BJH