Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 231749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Updated below for 18Z Aviation Discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The large temperature difference from Lake Superior vs land has
helped kick in the lake breeze. Temperature at the Canal Park
area at 46 degrees while here at the NWS office we are at 61
degrees. There will be cooler temperatures near most of the Lake
Superior shore areas today.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Mostly dry conditions will continue through the day Tuesday as high
pressure and dry air remain entrenched across the Northland. As of
2am this morning, a band of mid-level clouds over north-central
Minnesota continues to move southeast as a weak surface trough/cold
front progresses southeastward. No precipitation was reported with
this trough as the air near the surface is very dry, per the RAP/NAM
model soundings. Clouds will be partly to mostly sunny today,
despite the trough moving in. Southwest winds will keep any lake
breeze that forms at bay. Today`s highs should be the warmest of the
entire work week, with highs in the middle to upper 60s.

A mid-level shortwave will bring more robust cold air advection
through the region this evening and overnight. The associated
surface cold front could support some light rain showers, but any
that do develop should be very light in nature due to lingering dry
air near the surface. The high-resolution mesoscale models, such as
the NAMNest, WRF ARW, and WRF NMM all indicate the most favorable
time frame for rain showers will be between 15Z to 21Z Tuesday as
the shortwave passes through. Increased cloud cover is likely
during this time frame, with clearing skies moving in from
northwest to southeast in the afternoon. Northerly winds will be a
bit stronger Tuesday as well due to the push of colder air, with
gusts between 10 to 20 mph. Highs Tuesday will be a bit cooler
compared to today due to the increased cloud cover and cold air
advection, with highs in the lower to middle 50s, right around
seasonal average.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Tuesday night finds upper level/surface ridging building into the
forecast area and lingers through Wednesday. Wednesday night finds
a positively tilted upper level trof moving toward the region. Its
associated cold front reaches northeast Minnesota by 12Z Thursday.
Moisture is limited ahead of the front. Behind the front, moisture
increases enough to warrant a small chance pop over the western third
of the region. Temps are warm enough that rain is the expected
precipitation type. The upper trof moves through Minnesota on
Thursday and pushes the cold front through northwest Wisconsin. The
GEM/GFS have more moisture and subsequently more QPF affecting the
area. The ECMWF has less moisture, resulting in less QPF.
Regardless, have chance pops. All rain is expected. The upper trof
departs northwest Wisconsin Thursday night. Enough forcing and
moisture to warrant some low chance pops. Much colder air filters
into the area with and behind the trof, leading to a transition from
rain to snow overnight. No accumulations expected. Model differences
reveal themselves with the handling of the weak surface low
following behind the departing system, and its precip potential
Friday. A blend was used which led to a dry forecast. Model
differences become quite large Friday night through Sunday and have
maintained a blend to balance out these differences.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

A weak front is currently draped through the area. There are a
few clouds associated with the front, but no showers or CIGS. This
front will work through the DLH and BRD areas this afternoon and
then HYR this evening. Aside from some VFR clouds, no issues are
forecast. Another wave will begin to push in late tonight and
Tuesday morning, but CIGS will remain VFR. Any shower activity is
expected to hold off through the TAF period.


DLH  58  40  53  29 /   0  10  10   0
INL  66  37  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  69  43  57  30 /   0  20  20   0
HYR  65  37  53  28 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  63  37  52  28 /   0  10  10   0




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