Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 250103
SWODY1
SPC AC 250102

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
An instance of large hail, a damaging wind gust, or perhaps a
tornado, remain possible this evening, particularly in central or
northern Texas.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet streak is overspreading the southern Plains,
supporting the continued eastward progression of a dryline pendant
from a strong surface cyclone over the central High Plains. Multiple
clusters of storms are in progress across the central and southern
Plains ahead of the dryline. However, the ongoing storms (north of
the Red River) are outpacing the buoyancy axis that is roughly
oriented along and to the west of the I-35 corridor. Given strong
vertical wind shear north of the Red River, Category 1/Marginal
risk-based probabilities have been maintained. An instance or two of
damaging gusts, large hail, or maybe a tornado could still occur for
any storm that can manage to ingest surface-based, unstable parcels
before weakening over the next couple of hours.

Farther south, storms along and to the south of the Red River are
more robust, with supercell structures observed on regional/MRMS
mosaic radar imagery. Mid 50s surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates support 500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Despite marginal
buoyancy, 30+ kt 850 mb flow beneath the 60+ kt westerly jet streak
support curved and elongated hodographs. As such, supercells and
linear segments are expected to continue developing down toward the
Edwards Plateau and should persist eastward through tonight with a
large hail/damaging gust threat. Given strong low-level shear, a
tornado or two also cannot be ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 03/25/2024

$$


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