Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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150 ACUS01 KWNS 100106 SWODY1 SPC AC 100104 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a very large hail threat across central and east Texas this evening, with other severe storms across parts of the Southeast. A corridor of potentially significant damaging wind remains possible late tonight across east Texas, Louisiana, southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and perhaps into north Florida. ...Texas into parts of the Southeast... Intense supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of central TX, within an extremely unstable and favorably sheared environment. Very large hail will continue to be a threat for as long as the supercell structures persist this evening, along with severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Farther east, convection is gradually increasing in coverage across parts of central MS/AL, near/south of an outflow boundary. A very moist/unstable environment and strong deep-layer shear will support potential for a few supercells through the evening, with a threat of large hail (possibly very large), localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With very favorable moisture and instability in place from east Texas across the Southeast and moderate unidirectional flow aloft, potential remains for an upscale-growing storm cluster to evolve into a fast-moving MCS, which could produce a swath of damaging winds late tonight across the Southeast. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding storm evolution through the evening, with potential for extensive convection across MS/AL as a cold front moves southward across the region. This convection would pose a severe threat, but would also tend to push the outflow southward with time. If an eastward-moving cluster can evolve across TX or LA and become favorably aligned with the effective surface boundary, then an organized bow could surge eastward with widespread damaging wind. It is also possible that one or more clusters could evolve out of the MS/AL convection. Regardless of evolution, widespread convection is expected across much of the Southeast through the night within a favorable environment, with one or more corridors of damaging wind possible, along with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado or two. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 $$