Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 162012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
312 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Active forecast in the short term with band of precipitation lifting
to the northwest across the forecast area wrapping around a low
pressure center across eastern Nebraska. As frontogenetic band of
precipitation in the Missouri River Valley lifts to the north,
expect warm layer aloft to be less pronounced and precipitation type
to switch over to snow. Satellite suggests this band is quite
convective, and could see snowfall rates exceed 1" per hour rates
through the late afternoon into the early evening hours.  This
frontogenesis is expected to lift to the north, and then weaken
towards 06z as secondary band to the south takes over and support
dies away. Secondary band of precipitation developing near I-80 is
expected to expand and lift to the north will mainly stay south and
east of the forecast area.  The exception to this may be along
highway 20 in northwest Iowa where light precipitation will be
possible this evening.

As the upper level low weakens and shifts east, atmosphere dries out
from aloft.  With residual lift through deep saturated layer could
see some light drizzle/freezing drizzle through the evening hours.

Overnight, the lift dies away and residual cloud clover remains.
Have kept lows toward the mild side of guidance.

Temperatures will struggle to warm on Saturday with a healthy amount
of clouds around and light winds making it increasingly difficult to

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Should see additional warming on Sunday ahead of the next weather
maker. Blended pops with this system appear to be fairly quick in
part to the GFS and in part canadian.  Prefer the slower timing of
the ECMWF, but was unable to make adjustments for now.

Relatively quiet weather expected much of next week.  A potentially
active pattern is shaping  up as a series of impulses break away
from an upper level trough over the Pacific NW.  Have not made
changes to the extended with active weather in the short term.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Complex aviation forecast, with freezing rain, drizzle, and snow
expected at both FSD and SUX with only snow at HON. Gusty winds
out of the east are expected to continue through this afternoon.
MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected with the precipitation as well.
At this time, am not confident enough in LIFR conditions to place
them in the TAF, but they are possible at FSD during the 22z-01z
period Friday evening.


SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ038-039-

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for SDZ050-057-058-

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ089-090-

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ001>003-

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ013-014.



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