007
FXUS62 KKEY 090830
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
430 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Mostly clear, warm and dry conditions prevail along the Florida
Keys on this early Thursday morning, with radars detecting no
precipitation across the region. Temperatures are hovering in the
upper 70s to near 80, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, and
winds on land from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Surface
analysis has changed little during the past 24 hours, with high
pressure centered over the western Atlantic, and the Keys
remaining in moderate SE flow along the southwestern flank of
this high. Aloft, the mid level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and
the low level ridge over Florida have continued to strengthen
during the past 24 hours. This pushed the inversion as sampled by
the 00Z Key West sounding down below 3000 feet, with PW dropping
to 1.09 inches (below the 25th percentile for the date). Recent
GOES-TPW satellite imagery shows a similarly dry airmass around
the Keys, with even drier air (estimated PWs below one inch) just
west of Andros Island.

Mostly clear, warm and dry weather will prevail through the rest
of the work week, as mid level ridging persists over the Gulf of
Mexico, and a dry airmass with a low inversion prevents even
isolated shower development. Temps will remain a few degrees above
normal, with highs in the upper 80s and lows near 80.

Heading into the weekend, a mid-latitude trough swinging offshore
from the eastern CONUS will flatten the subtropical ridge south
of our latitude, with a surface frontal boundary pushing down the
Florida peninsula. This front appears likely to stall and
eventually dissipate nearby during the weekend, but may introduce
a brief interlude of northerly breezes Saturday night and
slightly lower dewpoints on Sunday. The front will be quite
starved for moisture at our latitude, and guidance has remained
quite dry through the weekend. Have maintained just 10 percent
PoPs with no mention of thunder through Sunday night. We are not
expecting any significant change in temps, with highs in the upper
80s and lows in the upper 70s.

The forecast becomes somewhat more uncertain heading through the
first half of next week, as guidance continues to vary in the
strength and timing of the next trough forecast to push eastward
from the Southern Plains. At this time, it appears that much of
the convective activity will probably remain north of our area,
with the mid level ridge holding firm just to our south. Guidance
has trended drier from Monday through Wednesday, and have nudged
PoPs down to 20 percent through the period, although we did keep a
mention of thunder. Temps will change little, with highs in the
upper 80s and lows in the lower 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Overnight observations show SE breezes ranging from 10 to 13 knots
off the Upper Keys to 17 to 18 knots at Sand Key C-MAN. Winds are
expected to decrease during the morning, but will include Small
Craft Exercise Caution headlines for the Straits and Hawk Channel
west of Craig Key to cover the next few hours. From the synopsis,
high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain
gentle to moderate southeast breezes today and tonight. Breezes
will slacken and veer to the south and southwest on Friday,
continuing to veer around the clock during the weekend as a weak
frontal boundary moves down the Florida peninsula. The front will
dissipate near the Keys waters on Sunday, then southeast breezes
will resume early next week as another high pressure area moves
over the western Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through
the TAF period. Near surface winds will be mostly southeasterly at
10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts of near 20 knots early, then
winds will subside to near 10 knots in the late morning to
afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1873, the daily record high temperature of 92F was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to
1873.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP

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