Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 211346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
946 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

A nearly zonal to slightly ridged flow is in place aloft over the
region this morning as a large cut-off low pushes through the central
plains. At the surface, high pressure is stationed over the northeast,
with a stationary frontal boundary draped across the central Florida
peninsula. For the rest of today, the surface boundary will slowly
dissipate as high pressure strengthens along the eastern seaboard.
This will tighten the pressure gradient across the area, leading to
an increase in easterly wind flow. In turn, this will enhance the
low-level moisture across the region, with a chance for showers
through the afternoon and evening. These will mainly be for interior
areas to start, but will shift westward late in the afternoon and
into the evening hours with some additional weak convergence thanks
to the sea breeze. The east flow may be too strong for much of a sea
breeze to form across some areas, but seems more likely over the
southwest Florida region where the pressure gradient and therefore
boundary layer flow is a bit less, so rain chances will be less for
these coastal areas. The ongoing forecast handles this fairly well,
so no updates are planned for this morning.


VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day. The wind
forecast remains a bit tricky due to a stationary frontal boundary
across the central Florida peninsula. As we head through the day,
this boundary is expected to dissipate, with an increasing easterly
flow across the region. The only issue is whether or not a sea
breeze will be able to turn winds onshore this afternoon. Will keep
this onshore turn only for KPGD/KFMY/KRSW due to the weaker
east/southeast flow there, but believe east flow will win out for
sites farther to the north. There will also be a chance for showers
today, starting over KLAL and shifting westward later this afternoon
and evening.


East to southeasterly flow across the waters will turn onshore near
the coast this afternoon and Sunday afternoon with the sea breeze and
then turn back to east/southeast tonight. Some increase in wind
speeds to exercise caution levels will be possible tonight, mainly
for the northern waters. Winds will become more south to southwest
Monday ahead of an approaching cold front, with increasing shower and
thunderstorm activity through early Tuesday. The front finally
clears the region late Tuesday, with drier conditions and west to
northwest winds behind it for mid week.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  83  71  82  70 /  30  30  40  30
FMY  88  70  87  70 /  10  10  30  30
GIF  85  70  83  68 /  30  30  50  40
SRQ  85  70  81  69 /  10   0  20  30
BKV  83  65  83  66 /  30  20  40  40
SPG  85  72  85  71 /  30  20  30  30


Gulf waters...None.


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