000
FXUS61 KBGM 260717
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
317 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control with dry weather through
Friday. Northerly flow allows temperatures to fall below
freezing again tonight. Saturday and Sunday, a warm front moves
through bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming
trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet and calm conditions continue tonight with temperatures
starting to fall. Updated temperatures using a blend of current
observations and the forecast.

7 PM Update...

High pressure remains in control and the forecast is on-track.
No changes needed at this time.

130 pm update...

A large surface remains in control this period as it moves
southeast to be centered over the area tonight then to the
coast Friday and Friday night. The air with the high is cool and
dry at the surface. Aloft a broad upper level trough over the
northeast US will move east being replaced by a ridge centered
over NY/PA Friday night. The low level flow out of the north and
light this afternoon will become southwest Friday. Friday into
Friday night warmer air will advect in. After 2 nearly clear
days today and Friday, moisture will come in aloft late Friday
night.

With dry air, clear skies, and a calm wind temperatures fall
tonight into the mid and upper 20s and lower 30s. Friday
afternoon temperatures peak in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Friday night temperatures will be warmer again with lows mostly
in the 30s. Winds will be light with dewpoint temperatures
rising to around 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

We look to be firmly in a warm sector Saturday night through Monday.
While the warm front stays to our north, enough moisture looks to be
in place to continue a mention for isolated showers and even
thunderstorms as the instability increases a bit as well. Modeled
925 mb temperatures would indicate highs in the 70`s Sunday and even
the low 80`s Monday. With the amount of moisture on the increase low
temperatures may struggle to fall much below 60 Sunday night. The
GFS has been giving the hint of the warm front becoming a backdoor
cold front offering a cooler and showier outcome, till other model
support is present will not trend the forecast in this
direction.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The main low pressure system and cold front is modeled to move
through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will serve to
bring us more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead
of the front. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around
500-1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60`s. In
terms of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is
modeled to be around 20-40 knots ahead of the front which may
lead to thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a
gusty wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front
can have a big impact on instability. Lapse rates also look poor
for any strong to severe storms too. So will continue to
monitor over the next several days. Overall, the trend is
slightly weaker for these thunderstorms compared to yesterday.

Overall this front is trending weaker as well not really bringing in
much in the way of a cooling trend till the next front moves through
on Thursday. With this slower solution, a few showers and
thunderstorms remain possible through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR
conditions expected at all terminals with mostly clear skies.
Winds are light and variable overnight, with south easterly
flow returning tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers, especially in the afternoons and evenings.

Tuesday...restrictions possible in rain showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/TAC
NEAR TERM...ES/MPK/TAC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES/MPK/TAC