959
FXUS65 KFGZ 110522
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1022 PM MST Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonal temperatures are expected on Saturday with
isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along
and north of I-40. Warmer temperatures arrive starting Sunday,
with slight chances for a few showers and storms each afternoon
through Wednesday. Anticipate typical afternoon breezes through
the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak upper low over southern Nevada will drift
across northern Arizona on Saturday and away from the region on
Sunday. Somewhat feeble mid-level instability in the cool pool has
led to a fair amount of high-based cumulus this afternoon. Perhaps
even a drop or two of rain in northern Mohave County and far eastern
Coconino Plateau. This will continue to be the case Saturday, with
the focal area shifting into northern Arizona. Moisture profiles
improve incrementally, so an isolated lightning strike or two may be
in play for Saturday afternoon.

The cool pool remains Sunday, for continued weak activity, but by
Monday, it looks pretty warm aloft and we may need to end our PoPs
at that time.

Winds are not very exciting, just normal diurnal westerly and
southwesterly breezes for several days, nothing to worry about.
Temperatures do climb as this low pulls away from the area, above
normal readings likely by early next week.

Short term trends look fine, no updates needed this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 11/06Z through Sunday 12/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. SCT-BKN CIGS AOA 8-10kft AGL through the period, mainly
along and north of the Mogollon Rim. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible AFT
18Z Saturday through 02Z Sunday. Some FU producing VIS from 2-4SM
possible near the KSEZ and KFLG terminals through the period. Sfc
winds light and variable overnight, with some NE drainage winds just
SW of higher terrain and at terminal KSEZ. Otherwise, SW-W5-15g20kts
AFT 18Z Saturday through 02Z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 12/06Z through Tuesday 14/06Z...Expect mostly VFR
conditions. Afternoon SCT-BKN CIGS AOA 8kft AGL, ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA
possible, mainly north of a KFLG-KRQE line. Areas VIS 2-4SM with FU
near prescribed burns. Sfc winds light and variable in the overnight
and early morning hours, westerly 10-15g20kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Most areas will be dry over
the weekend. Chances (20-50%) for afternoon showers/thunderstorms
from the Mogollon Rim northward each day, but especially Saturday.
Very little precipitation is expected, but gusty outflow winds are
possible. Outside of any showers, expect daytime west to northwest
winds 10 to 25 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures will warm to near or above
normal. A low chance (10-30%) for mountain showers or thunderstorms
will continue each day. Little precipitation is expected. Generally
west winds of 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...MCT/Peterson

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