Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270324
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
824 PM MST Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cold and unsettled weather, with periods of rain and
snow will persist today. Dry and warmer weather returns Wednesday
through Saturday with increasing winds. Winter weather potentially
makes a return late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Isolated showers remain persistent across many areas of
the High Country this evening. As a result, mentionable
precipitation was expanded westward from the Eastern Rim and
White Mountains through 11 PM tonight. Only minor adjustments were
made to the precipitation grids after 11 PM. Wind gusts have also
been strong near Winslow and across the Hopi Reservation, so
edits were made to the wind gusts grids for the next few hours
too.

Overnight showers will slowly diminish, with warmer and drier
weather returning for the next few days.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /428 PM MST/...Troughing overhead persists. This, combined with
available moisture and instability, is leading to another day with
wide coverage of showers and storms for the region. CAMs did do a
good job capturing the more robust storm activity down near Camp
Verde/much of Yavapai County. This activity is expected to
continue to push south over the coming hours. Elsewhere activity
is not expected to be as robust, but isolated to scattered
showers and storms will continue. In terms of precipitation
types, today is a hodge-podge of rain and snow with hail and
graupel mixing in with low freezing levels. Areas above 6000`
receiving snowfall will see minimal accumlations as much of the
snow will be melting in-between showers/storms.

Shower and storm activity will diminish overnight and the trough
will start to shift east with ridging moving over the area. This
ridge will buy the area 2 days of mostly quiet weather. Light
winds and warming temperatures are expected for Wednesday. Winds
will start to pick up Thursday with sustained winds of 10-20 mph
expected for many higher elevation areas with some gusts to 30
mph. The uptick in wind will be a result of a Pacific low digging
south along the coast tightening the gradient over Arizona.

Winds will really pick up Friday into the weekend with the low
getting closer to the area and really tightening the gradient.
Timing and speed of this system is still really variable amongst
models, resulting in low forecast confidence for next weekend
still. There is high confidence that winds will remain elevated
until the low arrives. Otherwise, the variability in time and Periods of
MVFR/IFR CIGS and VIS with mountain obscuration are expected from
18Z-03Z due to scattered -TSRA/-SHSN. Greatest shower coverage
will be along and south of KCMR-KFLG-KINW-KRQE line during this
time. Conditions improve to VFR after 03Z with clouds clearing
overnight. Anticipate west-northwest winds, 15-25 kts, for this
afternoon, becoming light and variable after 02Z. location is
resulting in serious variability in precipitation amounts,
temperatures, precipitation type, snow levels, etc. General
ballpark still points for snow levels to be around 6000`. After it
arrives, guidance comes into slightly better agreement for the
start of next week that the low will be slow moving with troughing
persisting overhead. This will result in similar weather to
recent with primarily diurnally driven showers and storms in the
afternoons with a likely wide mix in precipitation types expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 27/00Z through Thursday 28/00Z...Local MVFR/IFR
conditions along with mountain obscuration are forecast through
04Z. Isolated rain/snow showers and a stray thunderstorm or two
will still be possible. Winds becoming light and variable. After
05Z, mainly clear skies and VFR conditions will develop.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 28/00Z through Saturday 30/00Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. West winds at 10-15 kts on Wednesday becoming
southwest at 15-25 kts on Thursday. Southwest winds grow even
stronger on Friday with gusts of 30-40 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Dry and warmer conditions
are forecast. Look for southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph on Wednesday
increasing to 15-25 mph on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Friday will remain dry. Southwest winds
strengthen becoming sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph.
Southwest winds will then remain elevated through the weekend. Rain
and snow chances return later Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/RKR
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.