Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000 FXUS63 KFSD 192351 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 651 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018 Upper level low pressure was deepening over the Western High Plains early this afternoon. This was spreading deeper moisture northward into the area. A more widespread rainfall will struggle a bit to move northeast into drier air but most locations should see some rainfall. Some of the heavier rainfall will be near Interstate 29 this afternoon. As low pressure deepens over northwest MO and southwest IA tonight the more organized area of rain and thunderstorms should develop across northwest IA. Right now not expecting any flash flooding issues as the model soundings hinting that as the low pressure deepens to the south a stronger northeast flow in the low levels could advect some of that drier air back into the region and and keep rainfall rates at a moderate to lower end heavy rate. Will still need to watch out in these areas though as the environment does support heavier rainfall and if the drier air is not as deep then heavier rates will be possible. During the afternoon a few funnel clouds will be possible with surface to 3 km CAPE values around 175 J/kg and fairly low LFC heights. With very weak wind shear any funnels that could touch down would be very brief and difficult if not impossible to detect on radar. The effects of the low pressure will be slow to shift east on Monday and areas east of Interstate 29 may be a bit wet for the morning. Clouds will also be a bit slower to exit and will limit afternoon temperatures. Will have the warmest readings in central SD, the mid 70s, while parts of northwest IA and southwest MN may only reach the upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018 With the exception of Thursday night, Monday night through next weekend looks to be mostly dry. A fast moving system will swing through on Thursday and could linger into Friday. It`s a bit far out to be too concerned but a few severe storms will be possible so will be a time frame to watch out for. Otherwise looks like a warming trend through the period with temperatures at or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018 Steady light rain will continue for much of the area through Monday morning, with isolated embedded thunderstorms also posing a risk of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Low cloud decks and reduced visibility will accompany rain overnight, with improving cloud and visibility conditions by mid-day Monday after rain moves to the eastward. East of I-29, isolated thunderstorms will still be possible through Monday evening. North winds will gust into the 20 to 30 knot range over the next 24 hours. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...VandenBoogart is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.