


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --025 FXUS63 KFSD 122321 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 621 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES...-- Changed Discussion --- Wildfire smoke remains in place this evening and into tonight. Reductions in visibility and air quality are expected in the smoke before it exits the area by tomorrow morning. Those sensitive to smoke and lower air quality should take the necessary safety precautions. - Heat and humidity build back in for Sunday through Tuesday. Cooler temperatures return for the middle and end of next week. - A low (~20% chance) thunderstorm risk for Sunday afternoon, then a higher threat for Tuesday and Tuesday night - with some threat of severe storms and heavy rainfall possible during that period.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 High pressure continues to push through the area this afternoon. High temperatures have warmed to the 70s while winds remain marginally breezy out of the northwest. While a pleasant rest of the afternoon is expected, smoke from wildfires in Canada continues to push into the area. Visibilities down to 9 to 6 miles have been reported and will sweep through locations along and north of I-90 and generally east of the James River through the late afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Should see the smoke finally exit the area come tomorrow morning. Lows will fall to the upper 50s and 60s overnight. Sunday will be a hot day as 850 mb temperatures warm to the upper teens to low 20s aloft. Mixing these temperatures to the surface will result in highs spanning into the 80s and 90s, warmest west of the James River. A surface trough and associated boundary will be sliding through the forecast area throughout the day which continues to show increasing chances of developing convection Sunday afternoon. While lapse rates will not be that impressive, tall skinny CAPE profiles will be present with a magnitude of about 1,500 J/kg. Shear profiles will support about 30 knots of effective shear. Forcing will be very weak given large scale subsidence prevailing on the backside of a departing shortwave trough. However, latest guidance is in decent agreement in a second, weak shortwave trough passing through behind the previously mentioned wave. Thus, convection looks to initiate in an uncapped environment. Questions remain regarding the overall coverage of storms but looks like the large scale subsidence should hold storms below severe limits. That said, small hail and gusty winds remain possible. Any chance for rain will push east of the area during the evening hours, leaving dry conditions for the overnight hours. Lows will fall to the 60s overnight. Zonal flow looks to take over for the first half of next week. Weak shortwave troughs look to pass through the upper level flow, bringing multiple chances for rain with them. The first wave looks to come on Monday but the surface fronts placed well north and west of the forecast area, dry conditions are likely for the day. Continued warm air advection (WAA) aloft will continue to push 850 mb temperatures up to the low to mid 20s. This will yield highs up to the upper 80s and 90s, warmest again west of the James River. Some locations west of the James could see highs near 100F. Heat indices will also rise into the 90s across the are, making for a hot and humid day. The main chance for rain will come on Tuesday as the previously mentioned airmass slides southward, pushing a cold front into the forecast area. This front looks to spark convection along it as ample instability will be in place. Severe storm potential is a bit questionable at this time as medium range guidance shows little to no vertical shear. However, machine learning guidance does show about a 15% chance for strong to severe storms. The other aspect to the storms is the potential for heavy rain. Precipitable water (PWAT) values look to rise to the 90th percentile of climatology per the NAEFS ensemble. Mean flow will also be parallel to the boundary as well, promoting the potential for training storm develop. Latest machine learning probabilities also support this heavy rain potential as it shows a 5 to 15% chance for excessive rainfall. Rain chances will continue through Wednesday as the front dives south of the forecast area. There could be additional showers and thunderstorms though instability looks to be low in the post frontal environment so storms may be a bit harder to come by. Temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be a bit cooler, falling to the 80s to up to about 90F on Tuesday and then the 70s and 80s on Wednesday. The end of next week looks to have continued rain chances as weak shortwaves continue to push into the area aloft. However, medium range guidance shows increasing variance regarding the evolution of these waves. Thus, have left model blended PoPs in place. Aside from rain chances, temperatures look to remain near to below average in the 70s and 80s Thursday and Friday before warming back to the 80s on Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Wildfire smoke at the surface and aloft continue to move east over the area into Sunday morning. Expect MVFR visibility in the thickest smoke, currently between the James River Valley and the I-29 corridor, with additional thick smoke over northeastern SD/western MN. Winds remain light and variable into tonight, with shifting direction Sunday morning and into the afternoon. Gusts around 15-20 knots expected by late Sunday morning through the afternoon hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area Sunday afternoon; however, with low confidence in timing and placement (and chances less than 30%), have omitted mention at KFSD and KSUX. Most CAM guidance shows development east of the James River but will continue to monitor trends.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...SG