Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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288 FXUS64 KFWD 102017 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 317 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1152 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ /This afternoon through Saturday night/ Cooler and drier air has filtered into the region this morning behind yesterday`s cold front. Weak cold air advection will be offset by plenty of late spring sun, sending temperatures into the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. A slightly breezy north to northeast wind will continue through the afternoon making for a very pleasant day. There is a very slight chance for showers and storms across portions of Central Texas this afternoon due to the arrival of subtle shortwave energy ejecting from the base of an approaching mid-level trough. Moisture and instability will both be limited, so we will only keep the a slight chances mentioned. Any showers/storms that do manage to develop will dissipate during the evening. Otherwise, tonight will be partly cloudy and cool with lows ranging from the upper 50s near the Red River to the middle 60s across parts of Central Texas. Middle and high clouds associated with the approaching low pressure system will increase on Saturday. Rain chances will also gradually increase from west to east through the day but the lower levels of the atmosphere will remain dry. Therefore, rain amounts will be light. A few thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon as well with increasing mid-level instability. Severe storms are not expected. Low level moisture and large scale ascent will both increase Saturday night in response to the low pressure system lifting out of the Four Corners region. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop primarily along and west of the I-35 corridor. Limited instability should keep all storms sub-severe. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ Update: The previous discussion captures next week`s forecast fairly well. North and Central Texas will continue in an active weather pattern with spouts of showers and storms every 2-3 days. During the dry periods, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Sunday Onward/ Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will materialize for the second half of Mother`s Day weekend and will continue into Monday to begin the workweek. This will be due to a deepening upper low and attendant diffuse surface system which will make eastward progress through the Southern Plains beginning early Sunday morning. Height falls ahead of this system will allow more robust southerly flow and northward moisture advection to occur prior to the arrival of a weak surface cold front and broad mid-level dynamic ascent. This should culminate in scattered and mostly disorganized convection beginning Sunday morning, with coverage increasing through the daytime. Instability will likely not recover to values supportive of severe weather, at least not on an organized level. However, a sufficient parameter space for perhaps a couple of strong storms with mainly a hail threat could exist, and this would be more likely across Central Texas where instability should be greatest. In addition, moderate to heavy rainfall may cause minor flooding issues, particularly due to already saturated grounds from above average rainfall over the past several weeks. Localized 24-hour rain totals of 1-2" are plausible. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue into the daytime Monday on a more isolated/scattered basis, likely with one final chance for convective activity along this system`s weak slow- moving cold front. This boundary will bring slightly drier air to the region, scouring rain chances to the southeast in the process. Despite this front`s passage, temperatures on Monday afternoon will probably be a few degrees warmer than Sunday`s highs due to less widespread cloud cover and a bit of insolation returning late in the day. With upper-level shortwave ridging following on the heels of the departing trough, dry and warmer weather will prevail on Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will resume Wednesday and Thursday next week as yet another strong shortwave deepens over the Central High Plains. This may bring a more traditional and favorable setup for severe convection to portions of the area with active dryline and cold front boundaries to our north and west. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /Issued 1152 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ Dry post-frontal air will remain in place through Saturday afternoon resulting in VFR conditions. High clouds will increase this afternoon and tonight as a low pressure system enters the Desert Southwest. A few elevated showers/storms currently developing across the Concho Valley will stay far removed from D10 but a few could approach Waco late this afternoon and evening with the passing of a weak shortwave. Coverage will be too limited to include in this TAF package. A northeast wind will prevail through the afternoon between 10 and 14 knots along with some gusts around 20 knots. The wind will fall below 12 knots this evening through Saturday morning while becoming more easterly. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 63 80 64 73 65 / 5 20 20 70 60 Waco 63 77 64 74 67 / 10 10 30 90 50 Paris 58 80 61 75 62 / 5 5 10 30 70 Denton 59 79 60 72 63 / 10 20 20 70 60 McKinney 59 79 61 72 64 / 5 10 20 60 60 Dallas 63 79 64 72 65 / 5 10 20 70 60 Terrell 60 79 63 74 64 / 5 10 20 60 70 Corsicana 63 80 65 75 66 / 5 5 20 80 60 Temple 63 79 64 74 67 / 10 20 30 90 50 Mineral Wells 60 77 61 72 64 / 10 30 30 80 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$