Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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053 FXUS63 KIWX 030048 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 848 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures Friday, followed by above normal temperatures through the middle of next week with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. - There are chances for showers and thunderstorms this week. A few strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon into tonight, mainly across northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Instability continues to increase on the south side of a warm front which is advancing northward through the afternoon. We have already seen a couple of showers/storms over NW Indiana, but these have weakened considerably as they`ve raced north- northeastward into the cool sector with more stable conditions. Diurnal heating in the warm sector and moisture advection will lead to MLCAPE ~ 1200 J/kg (MUCAPE closer to 2000). However, 0-6km shear of only 20-25kt and relatively unimpressive mid- level lapse rates will keep the situation pretty tame. If any updrafts become better organized, the best chance for an isolated hail or strong wind threat (although DCAPE values suggest sub-severe winds) would be over far Southwest Michigan and Northwest Indiana. Overnight, as the shortwave pivots off northeast into Canada, upper level divergence/diffluence over our area (coupled with PWATs increasing to ~1.3in) will aid in more widespread shower and embeded thunderstorm development out ahead of the cold front. This will march eastward through the morning, with precip finally dying off west to east during the afternoon hours. With the frontal passage and rain/cloud cover, highs will only top out in the low 70s. In the long-term, confidence is high that we are going to remain in an active pattern characterized by above normal temperatures and daily shower/thunderstorm chances. However, no significant weather impacts are anticipated at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 808 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 A stationary front was oriented northwest/southeast just south of the terminals. Storms were generally firing north of the front the past few hours. There has been a diurnal decrease in activity toward the start of the TAF period. The atmosphere remains anomalously moist ahead of more upper level energy moving north from southeast MO into far southern IL. Expect more showers and storms as the activity moves toward northern Indiana tonight and as a cold front approaches from the west. Refined timing of MVFR ceilings according to the latest guidance in light of conditional climatology for favored hours basically from daybreak to late morning. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Norman AVIATION...Skipper