733
FXUS62 KTAE 131618
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1218 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

...New NEAR TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1151 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A large cluster of severe thunderstorms is currently moving east
across the Florida Panhandle. In advance of this cluster, an
east-west surface boundary is evident from near Tyndall AFB to
near Valdosta. North of that line, cooler and drier air at the
surface will be less favorable for severe. Along and south of
this line, low- level shear profiles and convective instability
are most favorable for organizing severe thunderstorms. Any
discrete cells near the boundary could produce a tornado. The main
threat will be the bow echo that is racing east across the
Panhandle, with damaging to possibly destructive straight-line
winds being the most widespread concern.

Late tonight and early Tuesday morning, the cluster of
thunderstorms back near San Antonio TX will race east, crossing
our service area late tonight and early Tuesday morning. The the
main severe threat will again be damaging to possibly destructive
wind gusts. This afternoon`s cluster of storms will likely leave
an outflow boundary draped across the Gulf waters, which will then
start to retreat northward in advance of the cluster late tonight.
The inland extent of severe weather will depend on how far north
the boundary can retreat. At this time, our Florida counties and
especially coastal counties have the best chance for another round
of severe storms starting late tonight.

Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible, given the slow
movement of the focusing east-west surface boundary, and thus the
potential for training storms. 2 to 4 inches of rain will be
fairly common over our FL counties, with pockets of up to 8
inches possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...

Starting Wednesday morning, a cold front will finally begin its
passage through the CWA, clearing out the remaining showers and
thunderstorms. Winds will be westerly for most of the day before
shifting to the northwest during the evening and overnight hours
into Thursday. The cold front won`t be cooling temperatures down.
Highs through next weekend will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Following Wedneday`s front, upper level ridging will build, which
is why we can expect the warming temperatures heading into the
weekend and a brief lull in convective weather. A trough
approaches on Friday that will bring our next chance for showers
and thunderstorms through the weekend. At the moment, it is too
soon to say what the impacts will be; but the global models
forecast parameters are similar to what we`ve have been seeing for
the past few rounds of storms we`ve been experiencing. Elevated
CAPE between 1000-3000 J/kg, 40-55kts of deep-layer shear, mid-
level lapse rates about 6- 7C/km, and PWATs nearing 2". It appears
an "all-hazards" event may again be possible. The WPC has
highlighted the FL Panhandle, SW GA, and SE AL in a Slight (2 of
4) risk for excessive rainfall for Friday and areas along the I-75
corridor and SE Big Bend in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall.

PoPs chances for the start of the term are highest in the SE Big
Bend on Wednesday morning for the remaining showers and
thunderstorms with about a 40%-70% chance. We can expect a lull in
convective activity for Thursday with PoPs peaking at less than
20%. PoPs chances increase for Friday with a 60%-70% chance for
areas along and north of I-10 Friday afternoon. South of I-10,
PoPs chances are about 50%. Heading into Saturday, the forecast
becomes a little bit more uncertain, but PoPs are elevated at
about 40%-60% with the highest chances along the I-75 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The main challenge will be timing multiple clusters of
thunderstorms that will pass the terminals over the next 24 hours.
One clusters with strong to severe winds will sweep across early-
mid this afternoon. The next round will sweep across late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1151 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Multiple rounds of large thunderstorm clusters will traverse the
waters through Tuesday, bringing severe wind gusts, possible
waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Elevated sustained winds on
Tuesday into Wednesday has prompted a Small Craft Advisory to go
into effect Tuesday morning through Wednesday. Conditions should
become more favorable by mid- late week before another chance for
thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 504 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The main fire weather concern for the period will be on high
dispersions on Wednesday. Otherwise, we`ll be in a wet and active
weather pattern through Tuesday with severe weather being possible
each day. Drier weather should be moving in on Wednesday and will
hold through Thursday. Wet weather returns for the end of the
week and the start of the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 504 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Today through Wednesday has the potential for heavy rain over the
entire region. A forecast of 2-4 inches area-wide, with isolated
higher amounts, and the potential to have up to 8 inches through
Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center for the Day 1 outlook has
highlighted areas west of the Apalachicola basin in a Slight (2
of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall, while including Walton Co, FL
in a Moderate (3 of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall. Areas to the
east of the basin are included in a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall. For Tuesday (Day 2 outlook), the FL panhandle
is highlighted in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall,
while our AL and GA counties are in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall. A Flood Watch will be in effect from 11 AM EDT
/ 10 AM CDT Monday through 8 PM EDT / 7 PM EDT Tuesday. The
longer-term implications are riverine flooding depending on where
the heaviest rain falls.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   81  70  82  71 /  90  80 100  50
Panama City   81  70  81  73 / 100  80 100  20
Dothan        74  67  82  68 / 100  70 100  20
Albany        77  66  80  68 / 100  80 100  40
Valdosta      82  68  82  71 / 100  90  90  50
Cross City    89  69  85  71 /  70  70  70  70
Apalachicola  81  71  81  75 /  80  70  90  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ007>018-026-027-108-
     112-114-115-118-127.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for GAZ120>127-142>146-
     155>158.

AL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for
     GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery