029
FXUS62 KTAE 120919 CCA
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
517 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Surface high pressure will generally slide east this period with
winds beginning from the north today clock around to the east
tonight. Weak shortwave ridging will build into the area this period
as an upper low moves off the northeast US coast while another upper
low emerges into the central Plains. This morning added slight
chance for light showers through the Gulf waters northward into our
Florida counties tracking weak lift and increased moisture which
short term models are trending in this direction. Won`t amount to
much, maybe some sprinkles or brief light rain. Plenty of clouds
incoming from the west on satellite and area time heights show
increasing abundance of clouds from 10,000 feet and above. MET/MAV
and other models have trended down highs today over the past few
runs and have followed suit and several degrees lower than NBM.
Highs will be in the lower 80s to perhaps mid 80s in the eastern
Florida Big Bend. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 60s
area wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Perturbations in the mid-level flow will allow for PV clusters to
move across the north Gulf States on Monday. This will help provide
forcing for ascent on the synoptic scale. Current models suggest
that showers/storms to our west in the morning hours on Monday could
send outflows our way which would cascade into a line of storms that
races southeast into our Gulf waters. Although this is a possible
scenario, the main thing to consider here is that if storms do
initiate to our west, the direction of the overall (potential) MCS
would be towards higher instability. Currently, that looks to be
offshore, but with dew points in the mid and upper 60s across the
region, it wouldn`t be impossible to see a pivot. MCSs movement
predictability tends to be low, thus we`ll have to see how things
shape up to our west over the next day or so.

On Tuesday we`ll have a more well-defined shortwave moving across,
and like Monday it`ll provide plenty of upper-level support.
Although, since it is a shortwave and not just a perturbation, it`ll
be accompanied with increased dynamics. The low-level wind field
will increase with winds at 850mb being in the 35-45kt range. Timing
will be important as the GFS and EURO are both indicating a push
through before peak solar heating hours. Regardless, there is
expected to be enough ingredients coming together to provide
increased chances for severe weather on Tuesday. Be sure to come
back for refined details as we get closer.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
generally in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Once the aforementioned shortwave moves out of the region it`ll
leave behind a stationary front that sags across our Gulf waters.
Our proximity to this front along with dew points in the 60s could
allow for unsettled weather as diurnal instability aids in forcing
ascent. Otherwise, another shortwave looks to make an appearance
towards the end of the week. This one has flipped flopped in the
models, we`ll have to wait and see if it`s as strong, dynamically,
as the Tuesday one. Overall, an active week is upon us.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 80s to low 90s with
overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR through the period. Some light rain or light showers may
develop overnight into the morning hours along the coast and
adjacent inland areas from ECP to TLH. Confidence is low and
chances are slight so kept mention out of TAFs. Otherwise, wind
directions will eventually clock to the east and southeast today
with light speeds generally 10 knots or below.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Boating conditions will be met with fair weather through the rest
of the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase
beginning late on Monday with the potential for impactful
maritime convection on Tuesday. Easterly winds turn more
southerly ahead of the upcoming storm system. Seas respond with
wave heights in the 4 to 6 feet range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Winds will begin this period from the north but will gradually veer
around to the southeast by Monday with some gusts by Tuesday with
the approach of the next cold front. This morning, a few light
showers are possible across the Florida counties but otherwise
expect increasing clouds. The next storm system and widespread
wetting rains are on tap for Monday and Tuesday. Areas of heavy rain
and severe thunderstorms are likely, especially for Tuesday ahead of
the next frontal passage. No fire weather concerns are
anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

In the extended period the WPC is forecasting 3-5 inches
throughout next week. This could introduce some riverine
concerns, however, it`s too far out to say with any degree of
confidence. Most of this precip is expected after Tuesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   83  66  85  70 /  20  10  60  70
Panama City   82  67  83  72 /  20  10  70  70
Dothan        82  63  82  68 /  10  20  80  70
Albany        82  63  82  67 /  10  10  80  80
Valdosta      83  64  86  68 /  10  10  70  70
Cross City    87  64  89  69 /  20  10  50  60
Apalachicola  80  70  82  74 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Oliver