Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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794
FXUS63 KFSD 182322
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
622 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

A very nice day has prevailed across the region with light north
winds and temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to upper 70s. This
nice weather is brought to you thanks to the surface high pressure,
currently centered over eastern SD. Winds will begin to transition
to the south this evening into the overnight hours, as the high
moves southeast.

A quiet and chilly night is expected with mostly clear skies and
light winds. Conditions will be favorable for efficient radiational
cooling, thus areas of fog could be possible, mainly east of I-29 by
early Monday morning. Overnight lows will range from the lower 50s
to lower 60s.

Conditions will change to start the work week with the return of
heat and humidity. As the surface high moves east out of the region,
a broad area of warm air advection surges northward into the region.
Precipitation is not anticipated throughout the day, but breezy
south winds from 15 to 25 mph will be possible in the afternoon.
Highs will generally be in the 80s to near 90 along the Missouri
River.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

A broad area of theta-e advection moves into the region Monday night
into Tuesday, ahead of a weak upper shortwave. With decent
instability, showers and storms will be possible during this time-
frame. This activity should be hit and miss with no severe weather
expected.

Upper ridge will be centered over the Four Points/Southern
Plains. Warm and humid conditions continue on Tuesday with highs
slightly warmer than Monday. Highs from the upper 80s to lower 90.
Thunderstorm chances increase across the Central Plains, ahead of
an upper trough moving north into NE/IA. At this time, most of
the precipitation looks possible along and south of the Missouri
River Valley into Highway 20.

The main story Wednesday and beyond is cooler than average
temperatures. Canadian high pressure slides southeast on
Wednesday, bringing drier and cooler air through the end of the
week.

The next chance of precipitation arrives Thursday night through
Friday night as a warm front lifts north into the region. Details at
this point are uncertain. The GFS remains mostly dry while the
ECMWF brings most of the precipitation across the region through
Friday night. As for now, have kept PoPs as guidance suggests with
a slight chance of precipitation through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Primarily VFR conditions through the TAF period. However, there
could be some patchy fog development early Monday morning, with
the greater risk at KSUX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...JM



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