227
FXUS63 KFSD 250445
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1045 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A persistent warm and mainly dry pattern will persist through
  the end of the month. Monday and Tuesday should be the
  warmest with the better chances for a few 50s.

- The probability of measurable precipitation remains near or
  less than 10% through Thursday of next week, with only a low
  probability (20%) for light precipitation by next Friday.

- Very basic agreement on increased chances for precipitation
  the first few days of February, but of course that far out
  there are plenty of unknowns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

Broad troughiness from the north will allow cooler air in the low
levels to filter southward, which will drop temperatures a bit on
Saturday. Temperatures will still be very close to normal. Some
patchy very light snow will be possible late tonight into Saturday
morning as a weak wave scrapes by to the north. One other potential
for very light snow on Saturday will be the potential for some
isolated snow showers in the afternoon as the top of the mixed layer
is partially saturated and within the DGZ with some weak instability
exists within this layer. A bit of a dry layer from the surface up
to a couple thousand feet which should limit the amount of
flurries/snow showers that reach the ground. One other concern will
be stronger winds with gusts of 30 to 35 mph likely. This will
definitely bring a cold edge to the air tomorrow with wind chill
values in the single digits to teens. Once the winds diminish on
Saturday night temperatures will drop with lows in the single
digits. While winds will not be strong, they will average about 5 to
10 mph resulting in wind chills of 15 below to 15 below zero.

Sunday into Tuesday sees strong northwest flow aloft spread across
the area which brings deeper westerly flow and the potential for
well above normal temperatures each day. The days with the most
potential should be Monday and Tuesday, albeit along with the mild
temperatures will likely come strong winds. Northwest winds both
days may see gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

A little ripple in the northwest flow aloft allows temperatures to
drop back about 10 degrees, but still remain above normal with
little to no precipitation.

The models are in fairly good agreement in developing low pressure
around the 4-corners region of the United States on Friday, then
swinging that northeast onto the Plains next weekend, which will be
our next better chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

VFR conditions continue into the overnight. Satellite continues
to show next cold front pressing southeast out of North Dakota
and northwest South Dakota. This wind shift will bring both
gusty northwest winds up to 30 knots during the day, but also
areas of MVFR ceilings into mid-afternoon. Lower ceilings arrive
near Huron prior to daybreak, Sioux Falls by mid-late morning,
and Sioux City by mid-day.  Flurries to scattered snow showers
may also move through the region, but given coverage have opted
to not include any prevailing groups.

Skies clear by late afternoon and gusts subside after 00z
leaving VFR conditions into Saturday night.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Dux