Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 241658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1058 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

11 am update: Fog finally clearing out at Glasgow and areas to
the northeast, so will cancel the dense fog advisory.

Area of light precipitation will be moving north from Petroleum
county into Phillips county today. Made some slight adjustment to
match current and forecasted positions of precipitation.

Most updates this morning have been for flooding issues across the
southern zones. Ebert

Previous discussion (issued at 412 am) A persistent southwest
flow aloft is in control across the entire region. Subtle embedded
disturbances are expected to bring a few periods of scattered
showers of wintry mix to portions of northeast Montana.

Aside from a few pockets of dense freezing fog this morning, A
lingering glancing shot of mixed precipitation is expected to move
north through Blaine and Phillips county with little if any

Later today through late tonight, a more organized short-wave
trough will set off more organized rain and snow showers with some
light accumulations possible as they move from SW to NE through
our area.

Sunday through Tuesday morning, the main upper-level trough axis
moves through the region, but most of the associated shower
activity will be confined to southeastern Montana.

Late Tuesday night through Friday night NW flow aloft returns
thanks to a building ridge of high pressure from the west with
some scattered chances for showers embedded within the flow.

For temperatures overall, every night will see a re-freeze and
each day will see a thaw as Spring tries to get a foot hold in the
area.                BMickelson


Low cloud and fog beginning to clear out of the taf sites with
flight conditions expected to improve from IFR/MVFR to VFR by 18
or 19z.

SW flow aloft continues to direct a few lingering showers
generally from SW to NE across the region. More of this activity
will impact the TAF sites later this afternoon through tonight
with vicinity showers.


Ice and snow melt continue to produce flooding and the threat of
flooding across northeast Montana.

A Flood Warning continues today for the Musselshell River from
Musselshell county line north to Crooked Creek Recreation Area.
Ice jamming is occurring at the outlets of multiple tributaries
along the length of the Musselshell River between Petroleum and
Garfield Counties and could lead to continued flooding issues
along the river into early next week.

A small stream flood advisory in effect for Petroleum County, as
many of the small streams and poor drainage areas are beginning to
fill up with water, mainly due to snowmelt issues. Water has been
reported to be over some roads in the southern portion of the

The ice is moving quickly down the Yellowstone River. Ice jams
reported overnight around Glendive and Intake have broken up and
the river has been reported as mostly ice free this morning. The
flood advisory for Dawson County has been cancelled.

A flood warning has been issued for ice jams along the Yellowstone
River in Richland county this morning. As the ice moves downstream
ice jams are possible. Flooding has been reported around Savage
due to an ice jam near Elk Island.

With the ice moving through the rivers and the issuing of flood
warnings and advisories will drop the flood watch for Flood
watches for most of the counties. The exception is Garfield county
where water is beginning to move along the streams due to snow
melt. No significant issues have been reported yet but high water
is occuring along Big Dry Creek east of Jordan. The main concern
over the next week will be snow melt over last summer`s burn scar,
and the potential for significant runoff into creeks, especially
Calf Creek in the southwest portion of the county.

The Poplar River near International boundary in Daniels Country
continues to hold in action stage today. This has been steadily
rising for several days now, but current rise looks likes ice jam

To monitor river stage readings, go to our Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) page at then
click on "Rivers and Lakes" then "River Observations". Data for
this page are provided by the USGS.


Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Garfield.


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