Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS62 KILM 181706

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
105 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A cold front south of the area today will lift north as a warm
front late tonight and Monday, bringing occasional light rain.
A series of developing surface lows, will bring wet conditions
Monday night through Wednesday, with colder and drier weather
arriving Thursday. Frost and freeze conditions may occur early
Thursday morning. Temperatures will warm into next weekend, as low
pressure approaches from the west.


As of 1129 AM Sunday...Thinning stratus presently transitioning
to strato-cumulus across the region, with full clearing and
dewpoints lowering through the 40s across the northern tier of
interior SE NC. This trend points to sunny to partly cloudy
skies across the area with a notable temperature gradient north
to south, 50 at LBT, and GGE 70 this hour. This will require
some hourly temp crafting to blend with anticipated highs, and
Max-Ts will be adjusted as well. Lowering dewpoints today will
rise late tonight ahead of an approaching warm front. Not a
great deal of change is expected with wind-speeds overall.

As of 3 AM SUnday...A developing surface low pressure area
over the southern plains will cause the surface front well to
our south to begin shifting northward with isentropic lift of
the 295K surface seen to begin late Sunday. The condensation
pressure deficit does not indicate saturation of the layer until
after 12 UTC Monday.

So for precipiation expectations, a dry Sunday is expected with low
stratus on the north side of the front dissipating by mid-morning.
The increase of cloud cover will begin late Sunday with a slight
chance of showers after midnight mainly over northeast South

Maximum temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with the frontal
passage. Temperatures will range from the lower 60s in the northern
portions of southeast North Carolina to the lower 70s in
Williamsburg and Georgetown counties. Lows Sunday night will range
from the lower 40s in the north to around 50 in the southern
sections of northeast South Carolina.


As of 400 AM Sunday...Basically looking at unsettled wx
conditions thruout much of this period. A whopping 1015mb high
affecting the area early Monday, will give way to an approaching
low pressure system from the west. At the same time, a warm
front will lift northward, finally crossing the FA late Mon
night. The low will have hooked up with the warm front Mon
night and both will cross the FA together. This will enhance the
precipitation and as a result, have increased the QPF across the
board specifically Mon thru Mon night. A somewhat of a dry
punch will push across the Carolinas during Tue and if enough
insolation also becomes available, temperatures should easily
break into the 70s across most locations. Then it`s back to
reality, with a cold front progged to drop south across the FA
Tue evening. In it`s wake, much colder air will slowly
infiltrate the FA with Wed lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s...this compared to the previous 2 nights with lows in the
50s and 60s. Models are in some disagreement with how much cold
air makes it to the FA as a weak to modest negatively tilted
mid-level s/w trof drops southeastward. It`s path with respect
to the ILM CWA will be crucial for the possibility of wintry
pcpn that may occur immediately after this period Wed into Wed
night along with 32 degree temps.


.LONG TERM /WEDNEThe tightened sfc pg from late Mon will
actually further tighten Tue into Tue night given the strength of
the sfc low. Combined with CAA after the CFP, winds should reach
SCEC and SCA thresholds. There is a Gale possibility but that will
depend on any further strengthening of the sfc low and also its
placement and movement. Nevertheless, not a favorable 2 days to
spend on the open Atlantic waters. Significant seas will see their
lull during Mon at 1 to 3 ft.SDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 344 PM Saturday...Low pressure pulling off the coast will
bring a lull Tuesday, before another low develops and brings
periods of showers Tuesday night through Wednesday, changing
over to snow or a rain/snow mix Wednesday evening. Forecast low
temperatures and thermal profiles, depict a brief period of
frozen precipitation is possible across much of the area. Sharp mid-
level drying will end PCPN prior to daybreak Thursday. Significant
accumulations are not expected due to warmer ground, but a "Frost`
advisory, or `Freeze Warning` may be needed very early Thursday,
favored over interior SE NC, but could reach into parts of NE SC.
Did not include thunder this period because of stable/cooler low
levels, but elevated instability will exist to some degree. QPF Tue-
Wed night averages to 3/10" to 5/10".


As of 17Z...The area of strato-cumulus drifting south in the post-
frontal regime will continue to erode through 19-20Z. A period of
VFR CIGs/VSBYs expected during the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Moisture advection will commence ahead of the next upper
low and old front returning north as a warm front overnight into
Monday morning. MVFR CIGs/VSBYs developing in areas of rain, mainly
after 06-08Z and possibly IFR CIGs later in the morning.

Extended outlook...Periods of MVFR, and some IFR Monday through
Wednesday. Chances for convection increasing Monday through Tuesday.


As of 1129 AM Sunday...Bumpy seas will be ongoing today, in
part due to gusty N winds, and residual south wave energy every
7 seconds interacting with the moderate and opposing chop. FPSN7
has dropped to 5 feet with gusts around 20 kt, so expect SCEC
to near SCEC conditions along the very outer waters. The
majority of 0-20 NM zones can expect 3-4 ft seas and NE gusts to
20 KT on occasion today, veering to E and easing a bit tonight.
Into early Monday, rain spreading from the S-SW may begin to
reduce visibility to below 4 NM toward daybreak.

As of 400 AM Sunday...Monday looks like it could partially be a
washout, meaning light rain initially will become more showery
with possible thunder late Mon thru early Tue. A warm front will
lift across the local waters by early Tue with East to southeast
winds ahead of a warm front will veer to the SW after it`s
passage early Tue. The sfc pg will tighten late Mon night and
during Tue as a sub-1000mb area of low pressure having hooked up
with the warm front, pushes off the VA Capes or NE NC by Tue
morning. The lows accompanying cold front will drop southward
and clear the local waters by midday Tue.

As of 344 PM Saturday...This is shaping up to be a difficult marine
period, as a series of strong low pressure systems impact the coast.
Gusty SW winds 20-25 KT early Wednesday, will shift to north equally
strong, if not stronger during the day as N and NW winds kick up in a
cold air surge. Gusts to near Gale force are not out of the question
Wednesday over the outer waters, with current numerical wave guidance
at FPSN7 assigning 7 feet Wednesday. Very cold temperatures will
greet mariners early Thursday, in a moderate, but biting, offshore





AVIATION...SRP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.