Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 161507

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Valid 161700Z - 171200Z


The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See
discussion below for details.

..Leitman.. 03/16/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/

An upper trough/low will move slowly eastward across the central
Plains today. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will remain
over much of the southern/central Plains to the south of the upper
trough/low. A surface low will develop eastward across KS and
southern NE in tandem with the upper trough/low, and a trough/front
extending southward from this low will sweep eastward across the
southern Plains through this evening. A second, well-defined cold
front will extend westward from the surface low across KS and
eastern CO. This cold front will move southward across
central/western KS and eastern CO today.

...Portions of the Southern/Central Plains...
Strong/gusty winds will likely be ongoing this morning across parts
of eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles and west TX along and behind
the surface trough/front described above. As diurnal warming and
mixing of the boundary layer occurs, RH values are forecast to
quickly plummet into the 5-15% range across parts of the
southern/central High Plains by early afternoon. Sustained winds
will increase into the 20-30 mph range across this region, with
higher gusts to 40-50 mph possible. High-end critical fire-weather
conditions may occur for an hour or two across west TX and parts of
the TX/OK Panhandles where sustained winds approach/locally exceed
30 mph. Some lessening of these strong/gusty winds should occur
across the southern/central High Plains by late afternoon as the
enhanced mid-level winds slowly weaken over this region.

As the surface trough/front continues to move eastward through the
day, RH values will fall below critical thresholds (15-20%) across a
greater portion of the southern/central Plains as winds strengthen
into generally the 20-25 mph range farther east into much of OK and
southeastern KS. These meteorological conditions coupled with dry
fuels and ongoing drought support the continuation of the critical
delineation with some eastward expansion across parts of
central/eastern OK and southeastern KS based on latest short-term
model guidance. Surrounding the critical area, elevated conditions
are expected across a greater portion of the southern/central
Plains. The sharp southward-moving cold front across KS/CO will
likely provide a northern limit to the fire-weather threat today.

...Please see for graphic product...

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