471
FXUS64 KFWD 051847
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
147 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Night/

Weather Highlights:

- A few storms possible this afternoon across Central Texas
- Patchy fog overnight
- Late morning-early afternoon showers and storms in East Texas.
- An isolated severe storm or two possible across North Texas
  (west of I-35) late tomorrow afternoon.

Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies have been in place throughout much
of the region. The one exception has been across the Brazos
Valley, where subsidence from the morning MCS had kept clouds at
a minimum until recently. A northward moving moisture boundary,
evident by the sharp increase in dew points, will continue its
northward migration through the rest of this afternoon. Although
there`s plenty of instability at this time, there`s some question
as to whether the developing storms across I-10 will hamper storm
development in our area. If a storm does manage to develop, small
hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Any storms this
afternoon will quickly dissipate after sunset, setting the stage
for patchy fog across much of our region.

By Monday morning, any patchy fog will dissipate with low clouds
lingering through around noon. High temperatures tomorrow will be
5-8 degrees warmer compared to today given continued south flow.

With moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streaming in, warm air
advection showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon. Although
MUCAPE will be fairly high (~3000 J/Kg), an elevated thermal
inversion will help keep the updrafts from tapping into the
elevated instability and precipitation should remain below the
capping inversion.

Later tomorrow afternoon, a shortwave will be advancing eastward
into the Southern Plains as a dryline sharpen just west of our
area. Strong southwesterly 850mb flow will help keep the cap in
place much of the afternoon. If the cap weakens enough, there is a
low potential a storm develops across western North Texas
tomorrow afternoon. *IF* a storm develops, comparative analogs
suggest the environment is volatile enough to produce very large
hail. There is a high potential that storms do not develop,
however, on the off chance that they do, they will quickly become
severe.

Any storms tomorrow will gradually dissipate after sunset,
leaving behind dry conditions the rest of the night. Monday night
temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s throughout much of the
region. The one exception will be in the far northwest, where a
cold front will be moving in and temperatures in the upper 50s can
be expected.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 255 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024/
/Next Week Through Mother`s Day Weekend/

On Monday, a negatively-tilted upper-level trough will eject
northeastward across the Northern and Central Plains. Dewpoints
in the low/mid 70s coupled with mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km
will drive strong instability (MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg) ahead of an
eastward mixing dryline. Deep boundary layer mixing coinciding
with the strong height falls overspreading the Plains, especially
across Kansas and Oklahoma, should eventually overcome any
remaining capping by the late afternoon. Convective coverage is
likely to be lower the further south you go due to weaker ascent
and a lingering cap. Any storms that manage to develop, particularly
north of I-20, should quickly become severe, capable of producing
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

By Tuesday, an occluded vertically stacked low will be present
over the Northern Plains with zonal flow stretching across the
Central CONUS. At the surface, a trailing cold front will begin
to sweep across western Kansas and Oklahoma while a dryline
lingers near the Texas Panhandle. In response to additional
pressure falls in the lee of the southern Rockies, surface winds
will veer to the southwest on Tuesday. A byproduct of the warm/dry
advection in the 850-700mb layer, temperatures will climb above
climate normals Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat
indices will be nearing 100 degrees across portions of Central
Texas each afternoon. This bout of late spring heat will be brief
however, as a favorably timed shortwave trough and nearby
dryline/cold front will bring additional storm chances and cooler
post-frontal air to the region mid to late week.

On Wednesday, strong diurnal heating/destabilization coupled with
forcing for ascent (from a combination of low-level convergence
and larger-scale ascent attendant to the passing shortwave) will
result in convective development along the dryline. Additionally,
the cold front moving through southeastern Oklahoma may become
another focus for convective development Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Forecast soundings east of the projected dryline position
(near the I-35 corridor) indicate the presence of strong
instability and deep layer shear. This environment will be
favorable for severe weather with a threat for large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

This unsettled pattern will linger through Thursday as a second
shortwave moves overhead while the cold front continues to slowly
sag southward into Central and Southeast Texas. A few strong to
severe storms cannot be ruled out. In the wake of the departing
upper trough and surface cold front, surface ridging will amplify
over the Central CONUS Friday and Saturday bringing a seasonable
but dry start to Mother`s Day weekend with highs in the mid 70s.
Our next chance of precipitation may not be too far off however,
as a weak shortwave trough approaches from the west on Sunday.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Storms in Central Texas may likely stay south of KACT
this afternoon. Low ceilings and patchy fog return areawide
tonight.

The ongoing MVFR ceilings are now in the process of eroding with
VFR expected in the next few hours. Wind speed and direction has
remained variable throughout much of the day, and will continue
this way through around sunset. After sunset, winds will become
established out of the southeast with low clouds building back in
after midnight.

Patchy fog will be possible tonight. Confidence in visibility
reduction is higher across Central Texas. For North Texas, we`ll
continue to monitor trends and adjust the TAF as needed.

Tomorrow morning, a few showers and storms will be possible east
of I-35. Although impacts to the immediate airports are not
expected, traffic east of I-35 may deal with a few pop-up showers
or isolated storms.

Another batch of thunderstorms is expected to develop northwest
of the D10 airspace tomorrow afternoon. The probability that any
convection impacts D10 is low at this time, thus, it will not be
included in the TAF. Similar to the fog, overnight trends will
have to be monitored closely given the small scale atmospheric
features will have a big impact on the forecast.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  84  71  88  72 /   5  20  10   0   5
Waco                68  82  71  88  71 /  10  20   5   5   5
Paris               64  81  70  86  70 /  10  20  30   5  10
Denton              65  83  68  87  70 /   5  20  20   0   5
McKinney            65  81  69  87  70 /   5  20  20   0   5
Dallas              68  84  71  89  72 /   5  20  10   0   5
Terrell             66  81  70  86  71 /   5  20  20   0   5
Corsicana           68  84  71  88  73 /  10  20  10   5   5
Temple              68  83  71  88  71 /  10  10   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       66  84  66  88  70 /   5  20   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$