Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 281946
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
345 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An elongated area of low pressure will move slowly northeast
and away from the NC coast through tonight. The low will rapidly
strengthen well off the coast on Friday, while high pressure
moves across the Southeast. A weak cold front will drop into WV
and VA late Sunday and then lift north late Monday. A stronger
cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move across
the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Thursday...

An elongated area of surface low pressure and boundary stretch just
off the coast of the Carolinas this afternoon. Central NC is
sandwiched between this feature and another cold front that has just
passed through the Triad, where dew points have already dropped into
the 20s and 30s (compared to upper-40s to lower-50s in the east).
This front will slowly push east across central NC through this
evening, accompanied by a slight wind shift from northerly to more
northwesterly. With the low deepening but moving east and away from
the region, and much drier air filtering in, precipitation has
largely ended across central NC, other than some patchy very light
rain and drizzle over the Coastal Plain which will completely end
over the next few hours. Rainfall totals since yesterday ranged from
around a half inch to an inch across the far western Piedmont to 1
to 2 inches in most other places. Isolated spots received as much as
2 to 3 inches along a stripe from Orange and Durham counties down to
Moore and Richmond counties, according to observations and radar
estimates. The Flood Watch has been cancelled, and the only
remaining flooding concerns are a few gauges on the Neuse and Tar
rivers which are forecast to reach minor flood stage over the next
few days.

The western Piedmont is already mostly sunny, which is helping
temperatures there spike into the lower-to-mid-60s. Elsewhere under
mostly cloudy to overcast skies they are still in the lower-to-mid-
50s. As the potent mid/upper trough swings through this afternoon
and early evening, skies will clear from west to east. Some high-res
guidance is showing a few light showers/sprinkles this evening over
the far NE associated with this trough, but skeptical of this given
how dry it will be aloft. Winds gusting up to 15-25 mph will
diminish some this evening, but a decent pressure gradient between
the deepening low off the coast and high pressure building in from
the Deep South will help some light NW winds linger into the
overnight hours. This will prevent ideal radiational cooling despite
clear skies, but the CAA will still help lows drop into the mid-30s
to 40 (slightly below normal).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

Friday and Friday night: In the wake of the exiting upper level
trough, heights aloft will steadily increase across the region as a
broad upper level ridge over the Central US builds eastward. At the
surface, a strong pressure gradient will exist between a deepening
area of low pressure tracking north off the New England coast and
high pressure building east into the Deep South will yield breezy
conditions. Expect frequent W-NWLY gusts of 20-30 mph, with
occasional gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph, highest across northern
portions of the piedmont and coastal plain counties. The brisk NW
flow will also result in favorable downslope drying/mixing out of
dewpoints and low-level warming. Afternoon RH values are expected to
fall 25 to 35%, potentially as low as 20-25% across the NW Piedmont.
Fuels will likely be wet enough to avoid elevated fire weather
conditions.

Underneath a scattered to occasionally broken diurnal cu field,
highs ranging from mid 60s NE to lower 70s south.
Lows Friday night 40-45.

Saturday through Sunday night: The upper air pattern over the CONUS
will undergo modest amplification over the weekend with substantial
height rises noted over the SE US as the upper ridge continues to
build east. Low-level SWLY flow around the surface high that will
settle over the western Atlantic will yield a strong warmup through
the weekend. After highs in the mid to upper 70s, Sunday highs will
average 12 to 15 degrees above normal as temperatures top out in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Mostly dry and sunny conditions will prevail with intervals of mid
and high clouds streaming across the area through much of the
weekend. One possible exception could be late Sunday and into Sunday
night as a frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic states could sag
far enough south to support some isolated showers across the far
northern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

A subtropical ridge in place Mon from the GOM up through the Ohio
Valley will shift east and off the coast by Tue morning as the
positively tilted trough axis sags east. There remains some
uncertainty with how this upper level pattern will evolve heading
into Tues/Wed timeframe as it interacts with a northern stream
trough digging central Canada into the Ohio Valley. From an ensemble
approach, PWAT increases ahead of these features to around 1.25"
within the deep stream of southwesterly flow through the
troposphere, which is around 175% of normal for early April.

Some light rain may be possible as the mid/upper level ridge breaks
down and weak disturbances ripple through the flow Mon afternoon
into early Tues, but the better chance comes late Tues into early
Wed. The stronger WAA and FGEN forcing along the 850mb front will be
well displaced north of central NC and our area well within the warm
sector. Scattered showers/storms may be possible on Tues within the
warm sector, where temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low/mid
80s, with the best chances across the western Piedmont where
weakening CIN and instability may be present during the afternoon.
Then a strong cold front moves through sometime between Tues night
into Wed afternoon. There is still some uncertainty on timing of the
fropa, which would have implication on the showers/storms and
potential severe weather implication on Wed. Unfortunately, this
timing uncertain is far too great to say much with any degree of
confidence. Breezy to windy conditions will be possible on Thurs
behind the stout cold front and tight pressure gradient in its wake
as high pressure builds into the TN Valley. Temperatures will return
to near normal to slightly below normal heading into late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: The rain has ended in the west (including INT
and GSO) and largely ended at RDU and FAY, though there may be
patchy very light rain or drizzle for a few more hours. Rain is
still ongoing over the Coastal Plain (including RWI), but no
visibility restrictions are expected given how light it is. The main
aviation concern will be the MVFR to IFR ceilings that will slowly
exit from west to east through the rest of this afternoon, with the
exception of the NW Piedmont (including INT and GSO) which is
already VFR. RDU and FAY should stay largely MVFR until later this
afternoon when the low clouds finally exit, but periods of VFR
before that can`t be ruled out. RWI should stay MVFR to IFR until
the light rain ends around 23z. Northerly winds may gust up to 15-20
kts at times for the rest of the afternoon. Skies will clear out and
VFR conditions will prevail from 00z through the end of the TAF
period.

The other aviation concern will be the threat of low-level wind
shear, as NW winds strengthen to 35-40 kts at 2 kft this evening and
overnight but diminish at the surface. The greatest threat is at the
eastern terminals (RDU/FAY/RWI). This potential will end after
daybreak tomorrow, as surface winds become westerly and increase
again, gusting up to 15-25 kts.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Monday. Gusty winds
of 20-30 kts are expected from the SW on Sat. The next chance of
showers/storms and sub-VFR conditions will come with a cold frontal
passage on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Danco/Blaes
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Danco


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